It's so good to hear from an old friend.

I am more glad to see that your analyisis and mine coincide.

I am sending you an analysis I did about the whole thing to you by email.

The way I see it, the timing and sequence of the reform package is going to hurt more people during more time, innecesarily; even though eventually things will work out---they always do, because if they don't we make them work out.

As you know, economic theory teaches us that you don't raise taxes and tax pressures, during economic contractions. A keynesian will tell you to apply some deficit spending policies to stimulate the economy and monetarists will tell you to easy the money. But no one suggests taxing your way out of a slowdown.

You increase taxes as a last resort and you do it when the pie is growing and we are doing it during a slowdown.

The Dom. Rep. is presently confronting three negative forces:

1. An 'Oil Shock" that implies higher gas prices and less money in the pockets of the people to spend more money.

2. A decrease in domestic and foreign investments in reaction to the uncertainty created by the new government by its misperception about the situation of the economy.

3. A decrease in trade with the U.S. due to the slowdown in the U.S.---remember US represents about 80 of our total trade.

Ceteris paribus, all these things mean less money in the consumers pocket and thus less buying power, thus less aggregate demand, lower sales, etc., etc. and then the government comes along and (tries) to raise the "tax pressure" from around 15% of the GDP to about 20%.

And then they are surprised about the consumer's and the businesspeople's complaints of a mayor slowdown, maybe even a recession!!!!!!!!

I hope my article helps you to understand our situation better.