Re: Cheap tickets - the secret
Beyond 21 days, advance purchase doesn't help much.
There is a method to getting good fares on regularly scheduled commercial routes. The secret is to know the recent highs and lows for your route (over the last 6 months). Then monitor the prices. The prices will fluctuate, hitting the lows about every 3 months, +/- 30 days. When the price is near the recent low, buy your tickets.
An example: Prices from Detroit to Santo Domingo have recent highs of US$800 and recent lows of US$400. The current price is about $750 +/- $35. Most recent low was in early February. It has been almost 4 months since we've hit the lows again. We are due.
Monitor all routes into the Dominican Republic. There aren't many. All flights come from Miami (AA), San Juan (AA), JFK (AA/TWA), Newark (1 - Continental), or Philidalphia (1 - USAir). It isn't necessary to monitor all destinations into the DR because I've found that if the price to Puerto Plata when down, so did the price to Santo Domingo.
Services such as FareTracker, which notify you when the fare along a specific route changes, are useful.
In my opinion, wait for the lows to hit again unless it comes to within 21 days of your desired departure date. Then buy no matter what the price is, because you probably won't do better.
Prices are at their all-time highs right now. It is very unlikely that the price of an August ticket will go up between now and 21 days before your flight.
If by chance you end up waiting until 21 days, the price never dropped, and you end up paying today's high price, don't forget to at least check the AA.COM site to see if they have a special, usually only released the week before but sometimes 2 weeks before. If there is one that fits your travel plans, buy the ticket and use the higher priced one towards the purchase of your next ticket (minus US$100 fee).
Jim Hinsch
JimHinsch@CSI.COM
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