The data indicates that the depression has reached tropical storm status. And now that a visible center is forming, it is further to the West than what could previously be seen, so, the track has shifted. The cyclone is still in an area of easterly wind shear. This wind shear will be reducing as the cyclone makes its way further westwards - the expectation being that the storm will increase in strength and intensity as the wind shear decreases. The expectation is that Dean will be close to the Lesser Antilles in 5 days.
Note, that for us, the forecast is still too far out to make any reasonable judgements. During hurricane season, 5 days seem to be the furthest out that one can actually forecast. So, we're still very unsure which direction Dean will take in relation to our island.
Currently, as is usual, the storm is moving Westwards at around 21 miles per hour. In the short term (2 or 3 days), this heading will continue. After that, the heading and forecast becomes highly uncertain as the models are not in good agreement. In about another 2 or 3 days, we will get more certainty as to what Dean wants to do.
A tropical storm is not a hurricane yet. But, by the time Dean makes its run across the ocean, it should be classified as a hurricane. The strength is uncertain.
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