Thread: Hurricane Dean
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Old 08-14-2007, 03:05 PM
Chris Chris is offline
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Default Tracks and Cones

A short explanation to answer some questions:

The cone of probability is the white and the white speckled areas in the image. This is the way that Noaa indicates where they think a storm is going to go - and is is a probability based on guidance from models - it is not a fact, as it has not happened yet.

The white area is the potential area that the storm may influence for the next three days. The speckled white area is the probable area of influence for the 4th and 5th day.

The probable track is the black line in the middle. The black dots on the black line indicate whether it is a storm, or a hurricane. The S is for tropical storm, the H is for hurricane. This is all projected and not real yet.

Example



Please again note that we are working with probabilities and potentials. Tropical storms and hurricanes are fickle. They sometimes go where we do not expect them to go. All you can do is to wait and see and if you fall within the cone of probability, to make sure that your hurricane plan is thought through and you can action it quickly.

Should the storm get closer to us, and it is early days yet ... we will post probable wind fields and probable storm surges.
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