Hillbilly is right. This storm is 5 days out from the Dominican Republic, that is if it does not change its mind. Suffice to say that I've seen more storms change their minds, than what I've seen storms stick to their initial track. There will be many shifts of track in the next 5 days and of course, shifts of cone of probability. So, give me a break here already and stop those panic pm's already please ...
I'm busy! You'll know everything I know just as quick as I know it ...
Anyway, we're in a waiting period. This is still not a hurricane but will probably become one in the next few days. There is a slight North Westerly nudge in the latest raw numbers but the official guidance sticks to a Westerly track. The storm is currently being buffeted by NorthEasterly winds and has not organized itself any better today. It is making its way across the ocean at a little slower speed. So, in the next day or so when it reaches warmer waters and gets out of the wind shear environment, it should probably declare what it wants to be, and how strong. Soon after, about 3 days out from now, we will have a better idea as to eventual track. (Don't panic! - you'll have sufficient time to make decisions - Its easy to run from a hurricane in the DR .. you just head inland for a number of hours - find a hotel and wait it out)
The current track puts Dean around 120 miles South of Santo Domingo in 5 days, on Sunday, as a Cat 3 storm. This has at least a 300 - 400 miles margin of error.