Hi Andy. Actually, I'm not 100% certain
(a) that it's a irreversible warming trend so much as I am that we're seeing major climatic changes (not necessarily warming globally, although that appears more probable than not) that will be very disruptive on many levels -- economic, health, etc. Some of this we are already seeing initial signs of, so we don't need to wait in order to take precautionary actions.
(b) that man is the primary cause. I have come to believe (like many of the world's major corporations, not just scientists) that man contributes to it heavily and may be exacerbating/accelerating/worsening natural changes. But again, whether man is primary or secondary contributing matters less to me than this is the part we most definitely can do something about, and should do as much about as soon as we can while we still can. At the very least I think we owe that to our kids and grandkids.
(c) that it's as apocalyptic as some in the environmental community would have us believe. But I do believe it is very, very serious, so cannot sit on our hands and wait to see just how bad it may become before acting to mitigate and adapt.
But just because the science is not 100% certain or 100% accepted does not mean we should sit on our hands and pray it'll all turn out okay in the end. If the hurricane watch center tells you that a major force 5 hurricane is headed straight for your island, do you say I'll believe it when I see it with my own eyes and just sit drinking beer and ignore the warnings based on best available science and computer models? I suspect most of us (especially me, after having lived through Georges in the DR in 1998) would start preparations just in case. If it does not hit, or does not hit as hard as predicted, well then, no harm done. If it does, our preparations increase our chances of survival with minimal negative impact. I view taking mitigation and adaptation actions regarding global climate change in similar terms.
I've followed the international debate on this issue since the mid-1980s, and have read many of the scientific reports produced and debated in international forums over the years. I've watched as the weight of mounting evidence has slowly won over skeptics in governments and industry. I can even recall a senior VP in a major European chemical firm (a client) lecturing me (and anyone who would listen) in 1988 about the ice cores and ice age theory RR espouses, complete with charts. Today that guy is finally convinced that global climate change is real, man is a major contributing factor, and his industry needs to be part of the response, not the resistance. He's far from alone. In fact, these days, just the opposite.
As I said above, I refuse to accept that there is nothing we can do or that global climate change means the end to all economic growth (the economic apocalypse that some would have us believe will occur if we face the global climate change challenge). Serious retooling, redesign and rethinking, yes, but economies have undergone major paradigm shifts in history before and do so successfully again.
We may not be able to stop global climate change, but we might be able to slow it down, lessen its negative impacts and capitalize on its positive shifts (yes, there probably will be some). As I said before, many of the necessary responses are things we probably should be doing anyway, so why procrastinate?
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