[Chris]

DrChrisHE .. (sorry for the 'he' stuff, a slip of the finger... Please read the following and give us any input you may have. )

Dean is now moving at 20 miles per hour.
Track heading has changed a little, to 280 degrees, a little more Northward.
The models are diverging in their guidance and according to NHC this guidance follows "the middle of the guidance evelope with a slight adjustment to the North, due to the GFDL and UKMET models".

The impact of the slight speed and track change has only moved the closest point of passing Santo Domino and the Pedernales Peninsula a few miles.
(The error rate is 20 miles, so this is all plus minus 20 miles... )

Projected timelines have also changed slightly. So, from what we know now...

Punta Cana - 193 miles / 310 kms - around 8am / 9am tomorrow morning.
Santo Domingo - 162 miles / 260 kms - around 1pm / 2 pm tomorrow afternoon.
Point of the Pedernales Peninsula - 77 miles / 124 kms - early evening tomorrow, between 6 and 7pm.

Here is what is really important for us and I would like some input from Ken, Dolores and Hillbilly on this issue.
Dean is projected to be a category 3 major hurricane when it goes by us.
Storm surges for Cat 3 hurricanes are around 9 - 12 feet above normal in a wide area around the storm.

Dean's predictions are 12 foot storm surge 300 miles to the North East of the storm. The North Eastern quadrant of a storm is traditionally the most destructive. So the storm surge on the South coast and portions of the East Coast is likely to be significantly above normal. This has implications for the low lying residences and buildings, even within several blocks from the shoreline. (I'm thinking of some friends in Juan Dolio and others on the coastline...)

So, we have to put our collective heads together and the experienced South Coasters must give us the benefit of their guidance in terms of these storm surge issues.

Description of Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.