[Chris]

These minute shifts of track happens right through the life of a storm. The eventual picture that appears to the public, is a composite made up by the meteorologists according to the statistical and numerical guidance with a healthy dollop of their own experience. With the 5am's, the track is back to West-Northwest and West. The prediction picture for Ike remains very complex and the guidance needs to be read with that complexity in mind. It will count as a radical move if Ike turns it sights onto the DR as the system is already in a 20.6N position. This has been known to happen of course and a few years ago we saw a storm do a complete circle in more or less the same ocean space that Ike is in now.

It is best to wait for a track shift to establish itself unless of course the storm is very close to where you are and minute shifts of track becomes less important because of proximity.

On its current track and taking into account that the current track may have variances of 100 miles or more, the DR could see rain and cloudiness from the outlying cloud bands around Ike. If the storm strengthens, you will feel more effect in the DR. Strengthening does not look feasible in the next two days or so, and then Ike will be gone out of our waters. Barring a complete unforeseen unforeseen event (like turning a circle), Ike should not be too much of a problem for the DR. The track and other guidance for Ike looks as solid as it can be for the next two days. After that, there is great uncertainty. The issue of a complete northward turn is back on the table.