The models have tightened up a bit with the critical factor still the ridging between Hanna and Ike which is causing the upcoming Westerly and then West-Southwesterly move. This move should start being very apparent around 2pm tomorrow if you´re following the track closely. The shift has started and the heading of the storm now is 285 degrees whereas before it was 290 degrees.
Official Track
The model runs are tighter and better agreement is being reached between the different models and the different runs.
If the picture for the next two days stay as is predicted currently, the storm will not pass closer than 200 miles north of Puerto Plata.
However, it will be a category 3 when it passes and this will cause 20 - 30 mile an hour winds and a 12 foot swell.
Today Ike tightened up, losing some outer bands. It is visibly smaller in radius. It is going through a time of increased wind shear. Later on it will encounter colder water churned up by Hanna. But Ike is preparing to strengthen again. So, it will pass the DR during the period of reduced strength if all else remain as is.
The Models
The models and the official track are coming into closer agreement. So, here we will go with the official track with as much confidence as is possible. This is all good however, when there is a hurricane out there, I am never comfortable until it is well past and on its way. Again, these storms are unpredictable and at Category 3, 4 and 5, we do not have much experience with them. So, things can go wrong in a real hurry.
Bits & Pieces
The outer bands of the storm are out about 600 miles and more to the south east. The biggest outflow is to the South East which means again that the storm carries water on the tail end. It is a magnificent formation.
So the eye will be North of Haiti on Sunday and then it is when the south eastern tail will hit the DR.
Josephine is following in Ike´s footsteps but will most likely go out to sea and spin some fish around. This is however by no means a sure thing.
You´re right Mike. Mid morning tomorrow is when the fat lady starts singing for the DR.
The Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas need to rush their preparations to completion.