Current Events In Emerging Markets

[Market Economy]

Can anyone offer some local market color. For the last few weeks EM worldwide have been shaky and several players have run for the sidelines, dropping their EM holdings and buying USTs. Any effects down in DR? . I believe the DR market is somewhat de-linked to other EM, but any impacts there?

Thanks.

[deelt]

I wish I had more time to look into this further. Off the cuff I would say that there may not be an effect now but may be as India continues to invest in DR then yes the potential is there. India is just beginning to show investment interest in DR but it still has a ways to go before their presence is felt on the island.

Since the big issue is oil right now I think DR is just out of the loop on that side but will feel the crunch for it to have access to oil, esp. from EM. Dr is no China. China is moving in and dropping aid/investment money into Nigeria, Sudan, etc. with no strings attached. DR can't afford to do that.

DR can't cut it in the Technological sector since it is unwilling to educate and invest in its populous. Thus it has limited market share access.

The only area they can may be have access to is call centers. We'll see how that goes.

I think given consumption patterns the trade deficit will remain.

[deelt]

Interesting...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/25/wo...=1&oref=slogin

[Market Economy]

Emerging markets (EM) had a tough week after prices drop and correction of about 10% hit several countries. Given the low interest rates that the world has been enjoying for the last few years and the low inflation rates, loads of cash has been poured into EM stocks and bonds making these regional asset classes best performing assets when compared to matured economies.

According to many, the era of free money is coming to an end and with it an increase in inflation. Does this mean that EM assets will be shun by investors and that currencies like the US$ will start increasing in value against other currencies? What about the commodities boom? is it near the end?

Housing prices in the U.S. are losing steam, is this great cash generator giving up?

Note: This is my personal opinion, an should not constitute investment advice. E-mail me at my personal address if you want to develop a dialogue.

[deelt]

My suggestion is not to be so dramatic. EMs are volatile. People who choose to invest in EMs need to deal with the ups and the lows. I have much faith in Bernanke and his management of inflation, but I'm biased.
As for the "era of free money" that is what they said in the 80s with the SnL and in the 90s Clinton boom years, and now in '00s with the housing boom.
As the world becomes smaller I doubt that people will turn away from EMs. People feel like they are in the "know."

No, while some housing markets are cooling some as still gearing up. It's all about keeping up with housing markets and what makes some regions have better investment options than others. NYC in terms of housing markets continues to redefine itself. But in areas like Birmingham, AL need the housing boost.

[NALs]

Originally Posted by deelt

No, while some housing markets are cooling some as still gearing up. It's all about keeping up with housing markets and what makes some regions have better investment options than others. NYC in terms of housing markets continues to redefine itself. But in areas like Birmingham, AL need the housing boost.

In general, the housing boom has slowed down nationwide. Of course, there have been some months of spikes in construction, but in general construction and prices have begun to stabilize and in some places, have begun to fall.

Regarding places like NYC (primarily Manhattan real estate), Miami, Las Vegas, etc; please keep in mind that those markets are much more dynamic than other less cosmopolitan places in the US. In markets such as NYC and Miami, just to name two, there is a very strong international element influencing the housing boom and this element is not necessarily tied to national situation.

Those spots are similar to places like Cap Cana or Guavaberry in the DR, places that seem to be on a world of their own influenced by factors beyond the country in which such real estate ventures are found.

-NALs

[NALs]

DISCLAIMER: Never make an investment decision based on what you have read, heared, and/or believe is going to happen without consulting with your financial advisor. Only you are responsible for your investment decisions.

Originally Posted by Market Money

According to many, the era of free money is coming to an end and with it an increase in inflation. .... is it near the end?

You are asking questions that no one has a definite answer to, because as the old saying goes "it's not over until it's over".

However, historically the price of Gold increases along with inflation. If you have purchased any bonds (either foreign or domestic) you should look into buying some gold as a hedge for your investment.

Remember, gold in itself is a very speculative investment, but it's much better than the effect inflation has on bonds through an increase in interest rates and thus, a fall in the price of such.

Originally Posted by Market Money

Housing prices in the U.S. are losing steam, is this great cash generator giving up?

The housing market across the US is a very regional "thing". In some places the boom has leveled, though not busted, while in other markets it continues. The most dynamic markets (ie. NYC, Miami, etc) tend to be the real estate markets with significant foreign influences and those are the markets that are doing better than the more domestic oriented markets. Keep in mind that there are places in the US that have completely missed the boat in this boom all together as well.

-NALs

[deelt]

I was rushed when I wrote my previous posting. I should have been clearer.

The issue is really the opposite of what you cite. It's these smaller towns/cities in AL, NC, MD that are still growing faster in cost. NYC is not a buyers market. It's a renters market. People get real estate brokers to pay rent, not buy property. That's the reality of most dense urban areas and 101 fact for people who work in this field.

Originally Posted by NALs

In general, the housing boom has slowed down nationwide. Of course, there have been some months of spikes in construction, but in general construction and prices have begun to stabilize and in some places, have begun to fall.

Regarding places like NYC (primarily Manhattan real estate), Miami, Las Vegas, etc; please keep in mind that those markets are much more dynamic than other less cosmopolitan places in the US. In markets such as NYC and Miami, just to name two, there is a very strong international element influencing the housing boom and this element is not necessarily tied to national situation.

Those spots are similar to places like Cap Cana or Guavaberry in the DR, places that seem to be on a world of their own influenced by factors beyond the country in which such real estate ventures are found.

-NALs

[NALs]

Originally Posted by deelt

I was rushed when I wrote my previous posting. I should have been clearer.

The issue is really the opposite of what you cite. It's these smaller towns/cities in AL, NC, MD that are still growing faster in cost. NYC is not a buyers market. It's a renters market. People get real estate brokers to pay rent, not buy property. That's the reality of most dense urban areas and 101 fact for people who work in this field.

I was referring to the upper income segment of prime Manhattan real estate. (Ie. luxury condos, penthouses, and such).

I found your previous post slightly atypical of what you usually post, since usually you are very clear of what you mean. In any case, thanks for the clarification.

-NALs

[deelt]

Huh?

Last time I checked Market Economy works in the field this is why he needs a disclaimer statement. Why are you using one? Are you now fronting as someone who is in DOWS and/or is regulated by the SEC?

Wow, now you are more expert than the expert. Funny.

Originally Posted by NALs

DISCLAIMER: Never make an investment decision based on what you have read, heared, and/or believe is going to happen without consulting with your financial advisor. Only you are responsible for your investment decisions.


You are asking questions that no one has a definite answer to, because as the old saying goes "it's not over until it's over".

However, historically the price of Gold increases along with inflation. If you have purchased any bonds (either foreign or domestic) you should look into buying some gold as a hedge for your investment.

Remember, gold in itself is a very speculative investment, but it's much better than the effect inflation has on bonds through an increase in interest rates and thus, a fall in the price of such.


The housing market across the US is a very regional "thing". In some places the boom has leveled, though not busted, while in other markets it continues. The most dynamic markets (ie. NYC, Miami, etc) tend to be the real estate markets with significant foreign influences and those are the markets that are doing better than the more domestic oriented markets. Keep in mind that there are places in the US that have completely missed the boat in this boom all together as well.

-NALs