Possible US crash implications for DR

[Dolores]

Retired federal analyst Richard Cook is forecasting that the crash of the US economy has begun. See It's Official: The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun. This article is circulating through the Dominican email system.

Could we hear comments on what this could mean for the DR?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...xt=va&aid=5964

[Chip]

No doubt a recession is happeneing due to subprime lending "spree", but the severity of the recession is questionable. Also, with all due respect I think it would be difficult to take the author very serious given his obvious "Michael Moore" conspiracy slant because of statements like the following:

"Among those poised to profit from the crash is the Carlyle Group, the equity fund that includes the Bush family and other high-profile investors with insider government connections"

"All (presidential candidates) are heavily funded by the financier elite who will profit no matter how bad the U.S. economy suffers."

"Acceptance by the U.S. population of diminished prosperity and a declining role in the world. Grin and bear it."

With regard to the DR economy, obviously anything that hurts the US will have it's effect felt here but it doubt it will be any worse that the other effect that recessions in the US have caused here in the DR.

[Chris]

It is sure that something is happening. This is not the only material out there that talks about this. For the DR, if there is less disposable income in the US, the obvious conclusion is less tourism, so less tourism dollars flowing into the DR economy.

For DR-Cafta, well, who knows?. I am personally concerned about local food security in the DR and the 'cheaper' imported food is not necessarily a good thing in my book. So, I cannot say how this could play out. It is sure that the US is in trouble with its own food production (lots of ecologically related problems in the bread basket areas, perhaps California excluded at this time). The US manufacturing base is also in other markets. Perhaps they will bring manufacturing back from China etc. if they have to pull in the belt?

In addition to the housing market slump in the US, and cheap credit surely kinda disappearing, personally I think we're looking at the beginning of the real oil scarcity crisis.

The ecological problems caused by global warming is also showing their effects all across the world.

I think these three things together, (housing market slump perhaps leading to a recession, the end of cheap oil, and ecological disasters in food growing areas) may just have disastrous effects - not only on the US, but on the DR as well.

The DR however is resilient I think. And if the US gets a 'cold,' the DR will surely survive the consequent 'pneumonia' - just because it has the ability to produce healthy food.

I recently read a blog that humorously explains this all: "There is no scientific proof of this, but I believe that the use of prescription anti depressants has made enough of a change in group decision making that many of the more amazing aspects of the recent credit bubble can be explained by it."

Disclaimer: These are only my ideas and should not be construed as the truth or accurate in any way. It is only fodder for conversation.

[mondongo]

That article is amateurish non-sense.

Rather than spend time with such obvious fairy tales, those in the DR should notice that the hedge funds that have filed for bankryptcy belong to Bear Stearns. Thes are the same ambulance chasers that keep pumpimg DR debt, and helped lower (too much?) the interest rate spread between the US and DR.

Part of what is happening now is the re-pricing of risk. What it could mean to the DR is foreign investors could demand higher interest rates on new hard currency loans.

[Texas Bill]

After reading the article referred to by Dolores, i am of the opinion that such could, indeed, be the scenario to be faced by the US and those countries closely tied to it economically.
History has lessons on this pronouncement all the way from Rome to the present day.
Resources of all nations are stretched very thinly in the economic model presently being followed by the fostering of the "Global Economic" scenario. That scenario, while seemingly a panecea of good omens, is actually, in practice, an abrogation, by individual countries, of any form of nationalism as practiced in the past.
I have to ask myself, is the abandonment of nationalism and the embracing of the economic problems of substandard economic societies worth the sacrifices that must be made by the "have" nations?
The conclusion I have arrived at is a resounding NO.
Don't get me wrong. There are people starving to death because their governments have not addressed (intentionally or unintentionally) the problems entailed in feeding millions of idle constituents who are landless, income-less and the like. Yet these governments are far from being bankrupt, have enormous natural resources which politicl prevents them from exploiting. Their populations have become, by default, dependent upon government largess for their very survival and thost government has turned a blind eye to theproblem.
One country, in particular, has allowed it's industrial and intellectual bases to be captured by other countries while it's political parties participate in in-fighting to gain the political power they see as theirs by right.
Elitism has always been with us as humans for millenia andwe still allow it to flourish in our midst. Do we deserve this phenomonen? Yes, we do, because we haven't the knowledge to combat it or we just fost it off as 'what is'.
We haven't yet realized that we, as individuals and regardless of all the allusions of "freedom of action" and "masters of our fates" are just words uttered by a few in the herd of humanity that continue to follow the "lead bell" into infinity.
Think about it. Are we truly free to be the masters of ourfates??
I think not under the present circumstances. We are still the "serfs" of the "Robber Barons" of mideavel times.

I don't like it and neither do you, but the forces are presently out of our control.

Texas Bill

[aegap]

Originally Posted by mondongo

Part of what is happening now is the re-pricing of risk. What it could mean to the DR is foreign investors could demand higher interest rates on new hard currency loans.

Bulls eye!!!!

[Chris]

Thought that this video spells out the size of the problem. This is what you call a 'Holy Sh!t' moment. From CNBC MSNBC - Video Front Page

[CyaBye3015]

[quote=Dolores;543585]Could we hear comments on what this could mean for the DR?

I once heard that when the USA catches a cold the rest of the world gets the flu.

Buy stock in Nyquil!!

[Everett]

The debt to equity ratio of the US economy is so poor that if it were a private company it would be in recievership.
The DR would be wise to align itself further with the EU and stay clear of the US and its myriad troubles.
Where the DR is going to have a problem is with real estate speculation and with the higher cost of energy. The latter will continue to inflate costs across the board.
The DR does not have a sound, sustainable energy policy.

[aegap]

Originally Posted by Chris

Thought that this video spells out the size of the problem. This is what you call a 'Holy Sh!t' moment. From CNBC MSNBC - Video Front Page

Ok, Jim Cramer being super overdramatic, ..where's the "'Holy Sh!t' momment"?