Diario Libre-Gallup May poll

[Dolores]

Diario Libre-Gallup. (First Week of May). Leonel Fernandez (PLD) 54%, Hipolito Mejia (PRD) 30%, Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) 11%. Fernandez lost 0.8 from the count in mid April, Mejia gained 3 points, and Estrella lost 3.4 points.

The most recent polls of the other independent polling companies following the Dominican elections are:

Hamilton, Beattie & Staff-Hoy (22-25 April): Fernandez 54% of the vote, followed by Mejia (PRD) 27%, Eduardo Estrella 14%.

Penn Schoen (19-22 April): Fernandez 59%, Mejia 27%, Estrella 11%.

Diario Libre-Gallup (14-18 April): Fernandez 54.8%, Mejia 27.1%, Eduardo Estrella 14.4%.

The poll results will be published in Diario Libre tomorrow. A preliminary release can be read in their online edition at http://www.diariolibre.com/(2lla2jfdp3yjvyueiuxqy255)/aspx/article.aspx?id=11208

[Dolores]

This was updated on dr1 daily news 14 May with the actual results:

Gallup: 53.6% PLD to 29.9% PRD
From 7 to 11 May, Diario Libre-Gallup conducted a new nationwide sampling of 1,600 voters and their intentions for Sunday’s election. The new poll shows that Leonel Fernandez (PLD) continues to lead with 53.6%, followed by Hipolito Mejia (PRD) with 29.9% and Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) with 10.3%. Fernandez has lost 1.2 points since the survey taken from 14-18 April by Gallup, while Mejia has gained 2.9 points and Estrella has lost 3.7.
Diario Libre points out that Hipolito Mejia, by trading his PPH campaign banner for that of the PRD, was able to double the percentage points he received in February, prior to the announcement that Rafael Subervi Bonilla would join him as the vice-presidential candidate. But with his markedly populist campaign in full swing in the final month of the campaign, Mejia’s popularity has only increased by 2.8 points, according to the difference between the April and May Gallup polls.
The newest results confirm the trend established by the two other independent polls for this Presidential election. Hamilton, Beattie & Staff-Hoy (22-25 April) forecast that Fernandez would win with 54% of the vote, followed by Mejia (PRD) with 27% and Eduardo Estrella with 14%. Penn Schoen (19-22 April) found that Fernandez would win with 59%, followed by Mejia with 27% and Estrella with 11%.
The polls suggest a likely victory for Fernandez in a first round, for which 50%+1 of the valid votes is necessary.
In case a second round is necessary, the same May Gallup poll indicates that Fernandez would receive 57.6% of the vote and President Mejia would receive 30.8%.
According to Diario Libre, 89.3% of Dominicans want the election to be decided in the first round, while 55.2% said that this desire would directly influence their choice of candidate, spelling concern for Estrella who has been consistently ranked in third place.
For more on the Gallup poll, see http://www.diariolibre.com/.../aspx/...aspx?id=11273s