It's Happening

[Tony C]

Just as I said.
The latest Gallup poll has Fernandez with 53.6 %. Gallup has a error rate of plus or minus 4 % so already it can be said that Leonel doesn't have enough to win on the First round. Not that Polls mean anything in the D.R..

Are you ready for 4 more years of Hippo? I know I am.

[Fiesta Mama]

Originally Posted by Tony C

Are you ready for 4 more years of Hippo? I know I am.

Are you crazy? I don't don't even live there and know that that would not be a good thing!

[AnnaC]

Let's see, how do you spell sarcasim?

[Robert]

Originally Posted by Fiesta Mama

Are you crazy? I don't don't even live there and know that that would not be a good thing!

I think you need to slow down in case you burn yourself out

I wonder what I did with that "Nathan Counter"?

[Robert]

I can't see it myself, but who knows? I still think Leonel will win in the first round.

The PPH or someone very close to them had fake audio recordings of Leonel produced saying bad things. They leaked them to the press thinking it would make him look bad.

Unfortunately for them they got caught big time!

Not that anything will come of it, but it's amazing the lengths some will go to in an attempt to bend an election.

[Fiesta Mama]

Originally Posted by Robert

I think you need to slow down in case you burn yourself out

I wonder what I did with that "Nathan Counter"?

Okay Robert, please explain yourself as I am trying to interpret your reply???

Are you saying I should stop posting?

[Robert]

Originally Posted by Fiesta Mama

Okay Robert, please explain yourself as I am trying to interpret your reply???

Are you saying I should stop posting?

I have PM'd you, let's keep the thread on track.

[BushBaby]

Originally Posted by Tony C

Just as I said.
The latest Gallup poll has Fernandez with 53.6 %. Gallup has a error rate of plus or minus 4 % so already it can be said that Leonel doesn't have enough to win on the First round. Not that Polls mean anything in the D.R..

Are you ready for 4 more years of Hippo? I know I am.

Maybe I am being ultra thick again because I have been chatting to people soince 04.30 this morning (sorry, yesterday morning), but can someone with a little more mathematical savvey than Tony tell me how Gallup showing 53.6% for leonel means we will get a Mejia/PPH Government in again??? IF his 4% + or - figure is correct & IF the top (negative) scale is reached, that means Leonel will get 49.3%. Assuming the PRSC gets only 8% & the other small parties only attract 2% of the vote, that means Mejia can only get 40.7% of the vote! It has been shown on the polls, that Leonel would get MORE votes on the second round, so how does that mean that Mejia will get back in?

So, on the figures submitted, I can only disagree with the premise of anothe Hippo term in office. Had Tony suggested that ther would be excessive FRAUD to take the figures still further away from the Gallup results, that I would noit argue with - I think there is a GOOD chance of that, but I am hoping against hope that the difference between Mejia & leonel is sufficient to keep the leonel vote in excess of 50% +1, even if it is JUST above!! - Grahame.

[Chirimoya]

Voter apathy and/or fraud is enough to drag down that 53% figure to just under 50%. Not sure if this is really true but I also heard somewhere that the ruling party gets all the spoiled and blank ballot papers added to their total.

You can bet your boots that the PPH will not concede defeat should Leonel get just under 50%, the way Medina and Balaguer did in 2000, even though Hippo hadn't quite made the 50% + 1 vote.

In a second round, most people agree that Estrella is much more likely to support Hippo than Leonel. After all, the rumours have it that the PPH helped him to the top of the PRSC against all the odds.

That is why Tony C.'s scenario is indeed a very likely outcome.

Chiri

[gringo in dr]

Hipo will win. You can bet your last peso on it.