Eat Crow: Tony C., Suarez N, ...

[Porfio_Rubirosa]

and even Bochinche. You guys are great, but were oh, oh so wrong! Let's take another look at Tony's prediction:

Originally Posted by Tony C

Political polls are notorious for being wrong in Latin America
Many of those who said they will vote for Fernandez say so to go along with the pack and not get into trouble.
I perdict 45% for Leonel and 30% for Hippo in the first round.
Round 2...Hippo 53% Leonel 47%

As for that embarassment Jimmy Carter.....For everyones sake I hope he goes back to Georgia and builds more homes for losers!

Now I'll admit that I didn't think it would end the way it did. I figured that Leonel would get over 50%, but that the JCE/PPH would steal 6-7% of the vote. I think that, in the end, the problem may have been for the PPH that the polls actually undercounted the support for Leonel.

10 gets you 20 that Hippo conceded after quite negotiations with Leonel's team regarding immunity from prosecution for the PPH.

[suarezn]

Originally Posted by Porfio_Rubirosa

and even Bochinche. You guys are great, but were oh, oh so wrong! Let's take another look at Tony's prediction:

Now I'll admit that I didn't think it would end the way it did. I figured that Leonel would get over 50%, but that the JCE/PPH would steal 6-7% of the vote. I think that, in the end, the problem may have been for the PPH that the polls actually undercounted the support for Leonel.

10 gets you 20 that Hippo conceded after quite negotiations with Leonel's team regarding immunity from prosecution for the PPH.

Hey...I always said I hoped I was wrong. I'm really glad that I was. Have to say I'm still in a bit of a shock that Hippo conceded so quickly. I do agree that there were probably a lot of under the table negotiations regarding immunity, safe pasages, etc...There were rumors that the current senator or deputy for Santiago would give up his seat to Hippo in the event Hippo lost the elections. As you know Senators/Deputies cannot be brought to justice in The DR while in power...

[ERICKXSON]

yeah righttttttttttttttttttttttt that was your easy way out... lol!

but i'm still looking for TONY C face, he kept calling Dominicans stupid he said that Hippo was going to stay another another 4 years....................

but the numbers are showing really hard times to come for you my dear friend Leonel victory means that YOUR BOTELLA is no longer available lol!!!!!!!!!

QUE VIVA LA REPUBLICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WEPAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

THANKS GOD WE GOT RID OF THE LATEST VERSION OF FIDEL AND CHAVEZ.

CONGRATS DOMINICANOS NEVER SEEN IN HISTORY 54.99% ufffff!

[suarezn]

Originally Posted by ERICKXSON

yeah righttttttttttttttttttttttt that was your easy way out... lol!

but i'm still looking for TONY C face, he kept calling Dominicans stupid he said that Hippo was going to stay another another 4 years....................

but the numbers are showing really hard times to come for you my dear friend Leonel victory means that YOUR BOTELLA is no longer available lol!!!!!!!!!

I'm a Leonel fan, so was really hoping that Leonel would win in the first round, but I was also very pessimistic about this happening, because I know how things have been done in the past by some of the same people who belonged to the PPH (i.e. Sanchez Baret throwing a grenade in the electoral board building while they were counting votes back in the 80's)

I hope you're not implying I had a Botella...

[Tony C]

Originally Posted by ERICKXSON

but i'm still looking for TONY C face, he kept calling Dominicans stupid he said that Hippo was going to stay another another 4 years....................!

Congrats to all in the DR. I am as glad as you guys that he is gone.
I will glady admit that I was wrong and surprised by the outcome. I do not doubt Porfi's theory on why Hippo gave up.

As to Dominican's being stupid. 36% still are extremely stupid and selfish.

Originally Posted by ERICKXSON

THANKS GOD WE GOT RID OF THE LATEST VERSION OF FIDEL AND CHAVEZ.!

Don't even try going there. And comparison to the Blight of the Cuban people with those of the D.R. is ignorant and best and plain insultingly stupid at worst.

[Rocky]

Originally Posted by Tony C

As to Dominican's being stupid. 36% still are extremely stupid and selfish.


Don't even try going there. And comparison to the Blight of the Cuban people with those of the D.R. is ignorant and best and plain insultingly stupid at worst.

If 15% of the hippo vote came from his friends with cushy jobs and high salaries, and 10% come from purchased votes, along with another 10% from fraud, then only 1% are stupid, and that ain't bad.
There is no doubt that Hipolito is nowhere near the man than Fidel is, but he does have dictator tendencies, only he lacks the courage to fulfill his aspirations.

[Tony C]

[QUOTE=Rocky]If 15% of the hippo vote came from his friends with cushy jobs and high salaries, and 10% come from purchased votes, along with another 10% from fraud, then only 1% are stupid, and that ain't bad.
QUOTE]
All that goes under the heading of Selfish.

[bochinche]

....i, for one, am really glad how it turned out. it could so easily have turned out differently though.
this is one time the dominicans have to be really grateful for international interference.

...you can wait for golo's assessment, but the true story went something like this:

the pph tried every thing to carry out some semblance of a rig. unfortunately for them, everything they tried was thrown back in their face.
when the pph realised (some could say, at last!), that the results were not going the way they had planned, to go to a second round, the head of the pph, eligio, instructed a delay in giving out the results. he invited the heads of the armed forces, the police and others to his house. the idea was to get them to create some kind of 'disorder' or 'chaos' so as to put the 'pph' in the position to do some kind of negotiation. anything from getting a second round to some kind of deal to save the necks of the people guilty of association with the pph. soto jimenez decided he had had enough of this craziness and telephoned some general who had been posted in iraq. that general advised everyone from hatuey to the local foreign ambassadors what was going on. the ambassadors got together and legged it to the jce. the observers, agripino, et al made their declarations about how good everything was going, the international press were told the results (if you watched the international news, they actually made declarations about who won, even before we received the first bulletin - although they did add that they had not been ratified by the jce). the best thing of all was hatuey - he was the one who telephoned fello and literally told him to advise his 'jefe' to stand down and not drag this thing any further, which subervi actually did (hatuey then telephoned leonel on behalf of the prd to congratulate him, before hipolito had the chance). there we have it the death of the pph, how? they were effectively crowded out, especially in the jce, and swept away.

some other things to note:

by conceding so early, hipolito is able to declare that what he always said about transparent and democratic elections was true. his words in defeat will go down in history and typically, he will be remembered for them and not for some of the disastrous things he has done.

what happened in la romana is not characteristic of guido. despite what you may have heard, he is not such a bad person. people are already calling for his lynching, but although he may be wanted in the u.s., there is no reason for him to be locked up here (unless spending the last month in la romana buying cedulas is such a serious crime - a plan which failed dismally anyway). people will have his blood though - he should buy some brown contact lenses and hide in samana or somewhere.

fello has solid support. it is evident that hatuey needs fello, but the others, besides the obvious ones in the pph, such as mob, tony raful, alburquerque, etc. should keep very low profiles for the next ten or fifteen years.

the prsc failed dismally, the pph pinned all their hopes in estrella getting a decent number of votes to force a second round. one of the reasons is that peynado's prsc supported leonel - peynado supposedly giving his instructions while recuperating from cancer of the colon or something.
well, unfortunately, peynado is in a coma and now that the elections are over they can think about switching off the life support machines. i thought he might not see christmas, but he might not even see the end of may.

[Porfio_Rubirosa]

The next few years will be most interesting for the PRD. If this election didn't fracture it, then it can't be fractured. One of the three listed above is going to have to blink for power to be consolidated over the next few years - and we already know that Fello is a blinker.

[Chirimoya]

Thanks bochinche! It makes complete sense to those of us who were wondering how and why they appeared to throw in the towel so quickly.

Regarding Porfi's post, I wonder whether any of these will still be in the running in 2008. Hatuey maybe, but the other two?

Chiri