What is next?

[Tony C]

Hippo is out. Fantastic! Congrats to the Dominican People!
But whats next?

Hippo has until August for him and his cronnies to gut the treasury. Their won't be a single paperclip left in a govt. Office for the PLD when they arrive.

What is Leonel's plan? It is obvious he will have to make drastic austerity measures.

Does he has the will to follow through when the people protest when they realize that their free ride is over?

Does he have enough political pull to handle the legislature?

Everyone agrees the Fernandez was a much better choice than Hippo but are the voters ready for the fact that things will probably have to get worse before things will get better?

[Jimmydr]

He is pro Tourism which is a big PLUS!

[trina]

I think the same question is on everybody's mind. Since he was regarded as such a "comesolo" during his last Presidency, is he going to move to the far extreme this time? Is he going to be another Hippo, robbing (remember, he stole a fair bit the last time he was President, too) and buying all of his friends and family "jobs"? Are we going to be crying "E' Pa Fuero Que Van" on May 16, 2008?

I sure hope not...

[Tony C]

Originally Posted by Jimmydr

He is pro Tourism which is a big PLUS!

Thats a big Minus in my book. Tourism, especially cheap tourism, is a lousy way to base a nations economy.

[Porfio_Rubirosa]

Originally Posted by Tony C

Thats a big Minus in my book. Tourism, especially cheap tourism, is a lousy way to base a nations economy.

I used to agree with you. But now I think it depends on whether the host country provides anything other than cheap labor and free beaches to the tourists.

When they build a Marriot in Turks and Caicos, for example, the building is practically airlifted in. All of the materials and most of the labor comes from overseas. Then it is filled with Indonesian furniture, American bedding and Chinese appliances. Not much economic gain there.

There was a time when the DR produced its own cement, its own tiles, its own refrigerators, its own plumbing supplies, its own architects, its own bedding, its own ranges, etc. This is largely no longer the case due to a combination of economic policies so poorly designed that nobody wanted to produce anything to grandiose free trade ideas.

The key to creating a large net economic gain from tourism is to keep the value added stuff at home, and a responsible government would have tax incentives and other policies in place to enourage this.

Yes, I DO know who the tooth fairy is.

[Barnabe]

France, Great Britain, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Morocco, Tunisia, etc, have A LOT of cheap tourists. They are happy with that.

2 millions tourists that need lodging, food, entertainment, even if they are cheap, give a lot of work to locals.

Plu, all these people, when they get back home, talk about the "so nice Dominican people". Good for the country, Dominicans are not only drug smugglers and prostitutes.

You can rent Villa Castellamonte if you can afford it, ok. As always you get what you can pay for. I think the big resorts, when building and when operating, bring more wealth to the country.

Just a chopo's-who-stays-out-of-the-country-club opinion,

Barnabé

[Tony C]

Originally Posted by Barnabe

France, Great Britain, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Morocco, Tunisia, etc, have A LOT of cheap tourists. They are happy with that.

None of the countries you listed rely on tourism as their primary industry.
Tourism's drawbacks are many.
Its Seasonal. For part of the year its good. The rest of the years the cash flow slows.

Its Regional. In the D.R.'s Case it centers around certain Beach areas.

Doesn't provide quality jobs. The vast Majority of Jobs in the tourism industry are in the low-paying service sector. Not the Kind of jobs you want to depend on to build a middle class in your nation.

Subject to too many outside forces. Weather, War, Terrorism, politics all can effect tourism negatively. All you need is a minor Hurricane to hit the east coast and that would deal a severe blow to toursim in the D.R. that would take months to recover. Manufacturing, for example, could be up and back running in Days.

[frank alvarez]

Leonel Fernandez has his work cut out for him but he was, by far, the best qualified to follow-up after Hippo and his gang of thugs to try to straighten things out. It will be a struggle, especially with the legislative branch in total control of the PRD.

As far as tourism's importance, how can it not be so? Along with Free Zones and the dollars sent by Dominicans abroad, these are the three main legs of the Dominican economic table. There is foreign exchange income for every tourist which visits us (3 million last year) and that's nothing small. It is extremely important in a country which needs to import so many things.

[Barnabe]

Originally Posted by Tony C

None of the countries you listed rely on tourism as their primary industry.

This can be discussed for a few of them. But anyway, most of them consider mass tourism as a major industry.

Originally Posted by Tony C

Tourism's drawbacks are many.
Its Seasonal. For part of the year its good. The rest of the years the cash flow slows.

Tourism is not the solution, it's part of it. It's seasonal, OK. Many industries are, and live with that. It might be difficult to find Easter eggs in December, some manufacturers do with that. What about Toys'r us? If you export organic mangoes, I guess you have to be patient with the tree. If you export swimming suits from a free zone, don't you have a low season?

The seasonality in tourism is due to weather conditions and holidays schedule. One advantage the DR has it that you have high temperatures all year round. If a resort was catering especially for senior citizens, it might be full from November to August. Maybe some do that already in DR?

Originally Posted by Tony C

It's Regional. In the D.R.'s Case it centers around certain Beach areas.

True. So what? It's still better. What kind of industries would you like to set up in Cabarete, Cabrera, Samana, Bavaro, La Romana? Caña? plus, the more tourists you'll attract on the shores, the more tourists will like to enter inside the country on the long term, provided there is an adequate offer.

Originally Posted by Tony C

Doesn't provide quality jobs. The vast Majority of Jobs in the tourism industry are in the low-paying service sector. Not the Kind of jobs you want to depend on to build a middle class in your nation.

Undeniably true. And that is a fairly good opportunity to give undereducated Dominicans a job. When these people get a steady job, they don't have que buscarsela, and one child of them (or more) has a chance to be better educated, and apply for or create better jobs.

Originally Posted by Tony C

Subject to too many outside forces. Weather, War, Terrorism, politics all can effect tourism negatively. All you need is a minor Hurricane to hit the east coast and that would deal a severe blow to tourism in the D.R. that would take months to recover. Manufacturing, for example, could be up and back running in Days.

OK, true. but I think a bit exaggerated for 'the minor hurricane'. Samana and the North are more protected. As for manufacturing, I guess it also has drawbacks. The 'caribbean dream' is a competitive advantage for the DR tourism industry. Where is the advantage for manufacturing? If you manufacture for the local market, and provided you are not in an industry where scale is paramount, you have many. But if you want to export? Low costs? Who do you want to compete with? Mexican maquiladoras with low salaries only a few hours drive from US markets? Chinese factories where a pound of rice has only 3 grains?

I like the upscale tourism because it gives good promotion for the cheaper customers, wealthy tourists build nice villas and I like to see nice villas, I like the mass tourism because it gave the DR a net inflow of 2 billion USD last year, because most of the tourists come back happy and that give a good image from the country.

It can also help promoting other goods from DR. For instance, when a woman on a market in Vancouver or London sees a papaya "FROM DOMINICAN R." she might remember the fruit orgy she had in a resort in Bavaro and buy the fruit for that reason.

Barnabé