Global Warming

[Chris]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4c7db6de-81...0abe49a01.html

I wonder what the migration patterns of people will be once water shortages become real in the Northern climes. Will we see more people coming to the Caribbean and the DR for instance?

[Conchman]

I wouldn't hold my breath on this one buddy.

[Chris]

I would truly question your sanity if you were holding your breath

But we are seeing a quasi-migration from the Northerners to our warmer climates, even in the DR. Without discussing politics, our large neighbors to the North has not really followed the principles of "making friends and influencing people", and sites like Escape from America are prospering..

According to this report, it seems like Europe is getting colder as we speak (Yes, I know I'm exaggerating here)

So, political influences are making people look for another place to live, and more frequently predictions on climatic conditions seem to be more dire. Seems to me more people are going to want to leave (possibly leave the planet). The 'Caribbean Island' dream is prospering in amongst our cousins up North.

So, this question is not for the 'breath-holders' lol amongst us. It is possibly directed more to the wannabe social scientists.

[Texas Bill]

Global Warming will involve the Northern Climes, which will ,by the nature of the event, become more Tropical in nature. Where will that leave the current Tropical areas of tourism??? Out in the HEAT, I'm afraid, since most of the tourist areas are islands of the Caribbean, have limited Land space (which will undoubtably become innundated) and even more people/sq.mile occupying the available land.
The warming (not withstanding "The Day After Tomorrow" scenario) trend will be slow enough so that Nations will accomodate the changes over time---up to a point! If the Warming trend isn't reversed, well, we won't have to worry about the results---We'll all go the way of the dinosaurs.. Only solution will be to populate some other planet in another solar system that we can adapt to and survive on.
Nice future, what???

From the doomsayer's bible.....

Texas Bill

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Texas Bill

Global Warming will involve the Northern Climes, which will ,by the nature of the event, become more Tropical in nature.

That is what is so strange to me... No, it does not seem as if this phenomenon makes things warmer at the outset, but it makes the water supply disappear - first it looks like it gets much much colder and then things turn to crap and it gets warmer, cause there is no more water, and no more vegetation... Does sound like a scene from a scifi movie..

"The conference also heard a gloomy analysis of the way the North Atlantic Ocean is reacting to global warming from Ruth Curry of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. Her new study showed that vast amounts of fresh water more than 20,000 cubic kilometres have been added to the northernmost parts of the ocean over the past 40 years because the Arctic and Greenland ice sheets are melting.

According to Dr Curry, the resulting change in the salinity balance of the water threatens to shut down the Ocean Conveyor Belt, which transfers heat from the tropics towards the polar regions through currents such as the Gulf Stream. If that happened, winter temperatures in northern Europe would fall by several degrees."

[Texas Bill]

I'm not a weatherman, but as fresh water is added to the "conveyor belt" of the Gulf Stream, the salinity is significantly reduced therefore the specific gravity is changed to a point that the salt water doesn't sink, returning at depth to the originating area, thus eventually shutting down the circulation which maintained the balance. The result is that the belt stagnates. That leaves the water to absorb the lower temperatures and because it is more fresh than salty, it freezes at a much higher temperature. Ergo, another Ice Age!
According to what and who i have read on the subject, such a scenario is possible over a short (50-100 years) period of time but could be accelerated depending on the amount of heat dissapated by the waters.
It is not beyound my comprehension or understanding, but I have to acknowledge that I don't have the necessary scientific education to fully explain all the entricacies. Just a generalized understanding of the mechanism at play.

That's also referred to as "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing". Just hopw I'm not too guilty of that.

Texas Bill

[deelt]

Ultimately, if we really need to change trends in global warming we will need the US, China and India to ratify Kyoto. Period. End of discussion.

Thus, all DR can do is mitigate, compensate and prevent. In making the most of it, DR should be tapping into financial resources to create "sustainable development" projects (I know it's such a misnomer...what is sustainable development). Regardless, while DR could be farther ahead in this compared to where near by countries are in the process they do seem to not be totally asleep at the wheel. Here is a posting from yesterday's news:

--------------------------------------
World Bank PCF funds open to DR
Environment Minister Max Puig says that the DR could sell certified emission reductions (CERs) under the Kyoto Protocol to industrialized countries that are signatories of the treaty, such as Japan, Canada and Germany. He said these could be used for sustainable development projects. Puig spoke on occasion of the start of the worldwide implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, which the DR signed in 2002. Puig explained that the DR has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Canada and the World Bank to have access to the Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF). The fund establishes a partnership between 17 companies and six governments, managed by the World Bank. As the first carbon fund, its mission is to pioneer the market for project-based greenhouse gas emission reductions while promoting sustainable development and offering a learning-by-doing opportunity to its stakeholders.
Puig explained that through the PCF, the DR could carry out energy projects, including the capture of methane in garbage dumps for the generation of energy.
See http://carbonfinance.org/pcf/Home_Main.cfm for examples of projects underway in other countries.
The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty on global warming.
-----------------------------------------

But then again in the same news clip, it also announces that Leonel sat with Rainieri & Co. to plan the building of other resorts...so it makes me chuckle, since I doubt the it will be an ecotourist site. Then, again, maybe they'll surprise me.

I hope they do.
Best,
Deelt

[Keith R]

Deni, China and India have ratified both the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. They simply haven't made any real commitments under the Protocol, which they are allowed to get away with because of their classification under its present wording. This is one heck of a gaping hole in the Protocol, in my estimation.

It also would help if Australia ratified.

Regards,
Keith

P.S. For the DR to have methane gas capture worth talking about, they'd better first get a real sanitary landfill. They also should give careful thought as to how they're going to utilize the gas (generate a small electrical plant? run buses and specially fitted cars? something else?)...

[Chris]

We discussed Kyoto on another thread recently. Keith mentioned that Mexico is now trading their CERs on the Chigago Mercantile exchange, if my memory serves me right (too lazy to check the thread). I'm totally with you on Kyoto, and that the other three bigs ones should now sign. And not just sign, but actually do. I just think that the DR will do very little, even though it is a signatory. Can you even imagine a real study on finding methane gas out of garbage dumps in the DR? My mind cannot get around it We'll be lucky here if there could be emissions control set for vehicles - probably take 20 years to implement. So, as far as the DR is concerned, I think talk is cheap at the moment. No real action, lots of words, especially where the word 'fund' is being used.

Sustainable 'development' is another thread I think. However, there are good models these days to look at, and good voices in the field, especially in the development of eco villages. I just think that more needs to be done on national and international levels.

[Texas Bill]

authorize the building of TWO coal-fired Electric generating plants!!! in Manzanillo and another in Samana???

Have any of you seen all that green-grey stuff coming out of the smokestacks and drifting in the wind lately???

Isn't the so-called Protocol supposed to foster a reduction in emissions???

Texas Bill