Quote:
Originally Posted by bob saunders
One thing I can see after reading through the entire PDF on the IPCC is that there are alot of may, could, likely, might, most likely and no has, is, will. This tells me that this is a theory that is being presented as facts.
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In the full report, the use of these words specifically is in the Glossary in order to have a standard language to express degrees of certainty and uncertainty. What I posted, was a summary or synthesis of three reports - it is meant to synthesize the main findings from the three previously published reports and does not itself contain any supporting information. I then copied out findings from the summary that are specifically for our area - Latin America and the Caribbean.
The supporting information and science basis can be found in the full report which is in three sections:
1.
The Physical Science Basis
2.
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
3.
Mitigation of Climate Change
Here is the language from the Glossary
Degree of confidence in being correct
Very high confidence and High Confidence - at least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct
Medium confidence - about 8 out of 10 chance
Low confidence - about 5 out of 10 chance
Very low confidence - about 2 out of 10 chance
Likelihood
Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence
Very likely >90% probability
Likely >66% probability
More likely than not >50% probability
About as likely as not 33 to 66% probability
Unlikely <33% probability
Very Unlikely <10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely <1% probability
This process of reporting has been going on since 1990 when the IPCC's First Assessment Report was published.
Then the Second Assessment Report was published in 1995
Again, the IPCC Third Assessment Report of 2001
And now the Fourth Assessment Report of 2007
Note that it is the role of the IPCC to assess
specifically human induced climate change. It is their job to figure out whether climate change can be attributed to human action. Then their job is to assess the risk, the potential impacts and the options.
Besides the Assessment Reports a range of other
special reports were published. Some of them specifically applicable to our area of the world, specifically two, Land Use, Change and Forestry, and The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability.
Note that this is new to all of us. Mankind has never done this and on this scale. It has become highly politicized with countries jockeying for position and organizations inside of countries trying to exploit this to their benefit. There is very little literature free of political bias. I see that Keith prefers the terminology 'climate change' and I prefer 'climate change as a result of global warming'. Keith and I are not in cahoots. Part of this, is his job and the way he makes a living. I come to this from a lifelong interest in ecology and specifically food based systems .. how people interact with the environment in order to produce food.
This is becoming too long, but for those who want to know .. What are we doing personally.
We eat organic.
We are not totally vegetarian but we do not have a lot of meat.
If we have meat, we know where it comes from. We understand the food production from where it is grown, up to our table.
This last summer, I had an agreement with a community supported organic farmer .. I took all her produce that she could not take to market, and I processed it. The processed food (bottled, dried or fermented and bottled) were offered to the community that support the farm at cost. In this way, we used the excess or the produce not 'pretty' enough for market and benefited our local community.
We drive a smaller car and have a ride-share amongst the local community. No-one in this community drives alone but we plan our journeys so that two or three people can take the same journey.
For purchasing, we're trying a '100-year' rule. We're buying only that which will last 100 years, or is completely bio-degradable. This is an eye opener and of course it is not very successful, but it serves as a learning process for this community where I find myself temporarily. The purchase of a new computer really is a difficult thing and it forces one to think!
Personally my belief in life is don't harm the earth because my food comes from there, enrich the earth, compost, do companion planting on a permaculture basis, don't use excessively, purchase only from like-minded people, eat locally and support a local community cooperative. Reduce waste, so, if I go grocery buying we take our own bags and we don't buy if the purchase is going to cause unnecessary waste or excess packaging. I recycle all bottles and use it for canning and storing. Re-use .. this community has a informal bottle exchange so, if someone wants to make say wine .. all of us donate our bottles. Where possible, we buy from bulk stores bringing our own glass containers (oils, grains, vinegars, peanut butter and such stuff). We've taken out all plastics in our house. (My father-in-law was to a great extent a pioneer in the plastics and oil by-products industry, so, this led to some very interesting conversations).
This past year we used air travel way too much and this coming year this will be reduced. So, this is what we're doing personally. At some stage I can outline the benefits and what we've found changed in our lives.
For the DR and the area around it? That conversation is still outstanding.
