It's like a Yo-Yo, manipulated by "??????"
***does anyone think that the government is in any way manipulating the peso?? ***
I believe so, even not 100% sure. Is that make sense to see the exchange rate fluctuation as what we are seeing now in DR? The exchange rate are decided on either "Free Market Trend" or " Manipulating way by authorities". Do you believe the "business-sector" market needs so much US$ to pay-off the imported purchasing? I doubt it very much.
Because the importing business has been dropped a lot, such as car dealers, electronics, construction materials....etc. Conversely, the govt needs a lot of US $ to pay-off the foreign debts/interests.
The story would be:
1. XYZ has so much available Pesos (bilions, billions) on hand, XYZ knows the Pesos can't be accepted as international monetary instruments in the US, Europe, or any other country/place.
2. Yet, XYZ knows a lot of US dollars about $3.7 billions have been deposited in the Swiss Bank by Dominicans, and also knows there are quite a lot "HIDING CASH" of US$ somewhere on someone's holding. To push the "hiding" US $ out, the easiest way is to devalue the US$. Remember: the Public investors are "extremely affected by the current picture in psychological ways", that's why the US stock market has "Random Walk" theory. Meaning you can not beat up the market price trend by normal thinking, because the market is up and down for uncontrollable reasons. What you can do is make your best judgement and study/research as much as you can do. Therefore, so many different analyses/formula/theories came out, so many different simulations came out.
3. XYZ will figure a way or a pattern to exchange the US $ at the lowest possible price by depleting the excess Pesos reserved which are being held at XYZ's hands, and yet can push the hidding US $ out.
4. When XYZ collects/exchanges enough US $ , then XYZ may ship them out or wire them out, or whitening the money through normal business investment, or paying debts via whatever the ways are.
(One example, not long ago, the FBI detained one DR's official government airplane in Miami and found out a lot of US$ in the bags, unfortunately, the FBI did not release how much money were in those bags, do you believe FBI busted this plane because of the high efficiency/excellent job performance?? or received information from someone who was also member of the group but not satisfied the profits sharing?).
5. After the playing game over, guess what the US $ will be? up or down? Unless XYZ can reproduce the enough amount of the US$ to satisfy the US$ demand in this country.
The bottom line is: Can XYZ reproduce the enough amount of the US$ to satisfy the US$ demand in this country??????
FYI: this is personal think, don't quote. If you bet on Pesos up or down, you have to be willing to take the risk. You are your own boss.
I know for a fact that the government attempts to control the exchange rate by forcing certain individuals to lower the rate using political pressure.... this can only be a temporary fix.
right now the gov is forcing the money changers by threatening a huge tax on transactions if they dont.
the last time, someone was threatend with jail time...
Mr. H. M. wants to be reelected
Mr. M wants to be reelected, he has to do something from now until to May 2004. Otherwise, he will be gone and out may be before May 2004.
Is the Peso going up or down? Any insight?
Any government can, at their election, force a desirable, artificial, Official exchange rate within their own borders . They can't control the International rate of exchange, however. If I remember correctly, Baleguer tried doing this during his regime and was moderately successful for a short period of time, but the forces of economics/finance did get him into trouble in the long run. Hipolito may take a page from that incident and try the same thing. Again, he may, or may not be successful.
I'm sure the IMF, the World Bank, and others will be watching closely the election mileu from now until that event is fulfilled.
The more dollars in circulation, the more advantagous the exchange rate for the Peso.
What's going on with the Peso??
Need your two cents...
My husband is in the middle of a construction project in SD.
With the peso falling and the construction costs doubling he's thinking of stopping the construction for a few weeks in the hopes that the peso will at least stablize.
What do the experts think????
non expert opinion
my humble opinion is to stop and wait for either the peso to weaken (likely) or prices to drop (unlikely)
This is nuts
I Sold US$700 early this morning at 27.50 and by 11.30 it was at 26.00.
I have a friend in the BHD who tells me its likely to level off between 29-30 by next week. I dont know how someone can look that far ahead in this country's wiggly economy. She says to be patient that it wont drop all that much anymore.
I dunno what to do!!!!!!Please make the bad man stop!!!!!!
last time i went it was 34=1US