(Oped piece) Leonel Fernandez setting up his next job

[cobraboy]

Originally Posted by Scandall

"President Leonel Fernandez will address the nation tomorrow evening. Fernandez will focus on forthcoming economic and social measures including energy and fuel saving initiatives and an increase in the minimum wage, according to Hacienda Minister Vicente Bengoa, the Minister of Hacienda."

This is what people have been waiting for.

And another spot-on analysis from Moreno:

During a visit to New York City, former presidential candidate Guillermo Moreno said that President Leonel Fernandez is the "governor of the excuses." He said that Fernandez has spent this term blaming his problems in government on his predecessor Hipolito Mejia, and now, even before starting his third term he has a new culprit: "petroleum speculation." Moreno says that presidents are not elected to describe the problems that we know about, but to confront them and lead the nation in resolving them with concrete plans."
As reported in Hoy, Moreno said that the rising cost of oil is not responsible for the government choosing to spend immense resources on building the Santo Domingo Metro, instead of on our true priorities, or for the heads of ministries and autonomous government departments choosing to assign themselves luxury salaries, costly SUVs of high consumption, per diems and commissions."
Moreno also said, "Rising oil prices are not to be blamed, but Leonel Fernandez himself, and his unlimited use of government money to promote clientelism, and the purchase of IDs to impose his re-election."
As reported in El Nacional, Moreno said that the rising cost of oil is not responsible for the legislators choosing to assign themselves the so-called "barrilitos" or millions in complementary allotments for distribution at their discretion, or for choosing to increase their wages, or for the "government's violation of the austerity law that was passed by President Fernandez himself."

Moreno prolly speaks truth.

Maybe he'll get 10 times the votes next Prez election and have 4.4%.

I'm not sure the Dominican people want truth and honesty in their gubmint. Seriously.

[Chirimoya]

Re; the 'too many rats' comment by CB, history shows that birthrates only go down once the population is more affluent and/or better educated.

[A.Hidalgo]

Originally Posted by cobraboy

"Rats" is an analogy, AH.

Sorry for off topic......I know what an analogy is but coming from you sometimes I wonder......

[A.Hidalgo]

Yes we are somewhat off course, but if the country were to subscribe to the philosophy of "more affluent and/or better educated" the Cobraniño will complain that the gubmit is intruding in our lives!!!!!! Entre la espada y la pared.

[cobraboy]

Originally Posted by Chirimoya

Re; the 'too many rats' comment by CB, history shows that birthrates only go down once the population is more affluent and/or better educated.

Could be, I don't know. I'm an economist by edumacation. I just know that a given set of resources can only support a given population. Whenever that magical "number" (which is dynamic and isn't really a number, per se) is hit and exceeded, all bets are off.

I also know that when a central gubmint begins to allocate resources in a manner other than the stasis the "natural market" assigns, the "law of unintended consequences" begins to become prominent. It's like squeezing a tube balloon. It always bulges elsewhere, you just can't predict it.

Not disagreeing with the relative ugliness of the current or past DR gubmints, and I'm certainly not giving Fernandez a pass for Big Pimpin'n for his next gig two months after the last election. . I just know that it's a safe bet to say that even Mother Teresa couldn't "fix" the DR economics with an assist from Big Papi and Vince Lombardi.

[Frank the Tank]

The undereducated populace is Leonel's secret to his "success"

[cobraboy]

Originally Posted by Frank the Tank

The undereducated populace is Leonel's secret to his "success"

As they were Hipolito's success...

[Hipocrito Mejia]

Originally Posted by Frank the Tank

The undereducated populace is Leonel's secret to his "success"

They have been the secret to every president's success since the generalissimo.

[ExtremeR]

This is interesting article about Guillermo Moreno:

Moreno dice que la culpa es de Leonel y no del petróleo - DiarioLibre.com

What's more interesting is the comments below, it is almost unanime.

[J D Sauser]

Originally Posted by ExtremeR

This is interesting article about Guillermo Moreno:

Moreno dice que la culpa es de Leonel y no del petróleo - DiarioLibre.com

What's more interesting is the comments below, it is almost unanime.

Originally Posted by Guillermo Moreno

"El petróleo no es el responsable, sino Leonel Fernández, de la utilización sin límites del patrimonio del Estado en la promoción del clientelismo, el transfuguismo y la compra de cédulas, para imponer su reelección", dijo Moreno, quien también condenó la baja inversión y la falta de apoyo al aparato productivo nacional, en especial a la agropecuaria.

So, if we are to believe Guillermo, it's NOT oil (which DOES affect economies world wide, wouldn't you say?)... no, it's the buying of cedulas (among other things) which are the culprit?

It's fine and easy to hand out verbal cocotassos to the government "in charge"... but it ain't a bit better than what the accuser seems to blame Leonel for... blaming the current, past or future situation on somebody INSTEAD of doing something or at least coming up with SOLUTIONS other than a change in government.

So folks, I beg to differ. Yes, we would all like some president to do "something" about rising gas prices... but apparently even some very powerful Texan oil man seems unable to solve the problem (actually, he might be at least part of the problem... but that's an other subject). So, how would we even expect a president of a small developing country like this one to be able to change this development? Well, he could have switched from a Dollar based economy to a Euro based one... How? I can't say... but it would have deflected a good portion of the leverage current oil price developments have on the economy. But lets stop dreaming.

In my opinion, yes, soaring have a strong adverse effect on weak, Dollar and oil dependent, developing economies like the one of this country. And the outlook is even scarier.
So, what can a small country like the DR do?

1. They should pay for the oil used for transportation... as this part is paid for by the consumers. If they want to subsidize part of it for certain sectors (so rising costs will not affect the overall cost of all goods to a lesser grade), these subsidies should directly be taken from taxes perceived on oil products which are not subsidized (I know, we all hate the idea of that). But the bottom line is, if a country subsidizes something... the money has to come from somewhere and it's most always in a form of tax. Petro Caribe or what ever, oil debt is piling up and direct oil debt is the one debt which will never be forgiven. So, since we will eventually have to pay for it, why not now so the money does not evaporate meanwhile.
2. They need to overhaul the whole energy producing sector (electric power plants) so that they can be oil free within the shortest possible time frame. We need to go back to hydraulic power and explore more aggressively wind power. Oil will soon be too expensive to be burnt... and soon enough to scarce to provide the growing energy needs of about any country as developing or under developed it may be. The switch has to come some day... so why not NOW.
3. How to do point "2"? Well, just like Spain's Franco built his autopistas (high-or-motorway) network: Have foreign companies built it and give them the right to operate them for x-numbers of years at their own profit (supervised, obviously). Generating power is a profitable business, so profitable it can pay for the initial investment over years.
4. We also need to eliminate using inadequate forms of energy conversion and use, like (just one obvious example) switching from electric water heaters to solar powered ones. Therefor we need to incentivate local industry so that affordable solutions are offered on the local market to make this switch possible. Low consumption bulbs are just about getting affordable... ans so forth.

These just a few thoughts.

... J-D.