DR hotel occupancy rate is dropping....

[Hipocrito Mejia]

For those that want to argue about the economic conditions in the US and how they may affect the tourism numbers, you have to consider that in certain terms, perception is sometimes more significant than what the actual major economic indicators may tell you.

For the average tourist coming to DR (US middle class), vacations are a luxury that are paid with discretionary disposable income. Look at the US consumer confidence index for the past 12 months, and you will see that it has been bouncing up and down. In essence, this tells a greater story about the sentiments of the "average tourist" than the other major economic indicators. The average Joe is concerned about the current and short term future job market conditions and how this will affect their income. Add the rising fuel and energy costs, and the increased cost of living to this, and you will find that the potential "average tourist" is more cautious about spending that discretionary disposable income on a vacation.

[qgrande]

I agree with cobraboy that oversupply of hotel beds might be a reason too, this is drops in occupancy rate we're talking about. In the capital construction is going on on a crazy scale, and investors don't seem to mind having their torres stay empty for long periods of time. Construction is cheap, drugs money needs to be laundered, etc. Maybe the same principle is partly responsible for the oocupancy rate drop in tourist areas?

[cobraboy]

Originally Posted by Hipocrito Mejia

For those that want to argue about the economic conditions in the US and how they may affect the tourism numbers, you have to consider that in certain terms, perception is sometimes more significant than what the actual major economic indicators may tell you.

For the average tourist coming to DR (US middle class), vacations are a luxury that are paid with discretionary disposable income. Look at the US consumer confidence index for the past 12 months, and you will see that it has been bouncing up and down. In essence, this tells a greater story about the sentiments of the "average tourist" than the other major economic indicators. The average Joe is concerned about the current and short term future job market conditions and how this will affect their income. Add the rising fuel and energy costs, and the increased cost of living to this, and you will find that the potential "average tourist" is more cautious about spending that discretionary disposable income on a vacation.

What about Europeans? How does the perception of the US economy effect them?

[Hipocrito Mejia]

Originally Posted by cobraboy

What about Europeans? How does the perception of the US economy effect them?

If you look at their situation, you will find that the average middle class households in European countries are very much concerned about the same issues.

[KeithF]

Originally Posted by batich

Why is it sad?!

But less tourists - should be welcome.

The tourists don't 'just benefit' the top 5%. Have you noticed the jobs people have preparing the food for the tourists? Or serving the food? Or cleaning the rooms? And where does the food come from? Less tourists=less demand for food, coffee, beer. So less need for people to produce that food/coffee/beer. Basic supply and demand will result in the price of that food going down, (relative to inflation). So the stuff the farmer NEEDS goes up but he can't sell his produce at the same level. So, he's going to make cut backs on 'non-essentials'... like pens and paper for his kids at school. Or the family that sends the kid to school in the morning and shoe shine in the afternoon suddenly have to send him out morning and afternoon to hawk harder. It's the tourist dollar that *could* save the country. The Dom Rep was 'reclassified' from 'third world' to 'emerging economy'. Those developments are on the back of the tourist dollar. Take those dollars out of the equation and you'll be heading backwards pretty damn quick. Take the kids out of the limited amount of education that they are already getting and you are heading backwards too.

So the tourists go, what replaces them? Farming, coffee and sugar exports I'd guess are running at about their peak as far as bringing money in to the country is concerned, so what else? Drugs look pretty profitable in DR? How about open cast mining etc? That will improve the ecology.

Like it or not, the Dom Reps future lies in the hands of tourists. An improved level of tourist spending, the country goes up for everyone. Reduced numbers AND spending, the country is in trouble for everyone.

The country I live in is a 'tax haven'. When I first moved here there was a lot of opposition to the finance sector that was increasing in size and 'taking over' from traditional economy, such as fishing and farming. The population has almost doubled in the following 15 years. Fishing and farming couldn't hope to replace the finance industry if it pulled out. So even the most die-hard 'anti-finance' have come to accept that even though they dislike it, the countries future lies in a successful finance industry. Schools are great, health is not bad, new hospital etc. You are facing the same. So, you can tilt at windmills all you want. But the sooner you accept that the Dominican Republic's future lies in tourism, the better.

Unless you can actually identify what else the country can do?

[amparocorp]

at this moment i am trying to find a flight from JFK NY to SDQ,,,,,,,,,i can find a flight to europe cheaper...................same story this november past and again in march......................maybe that has something to do with it?

[Conchman]

The Bahamas has also seen a downturn in tourism, but there they are more affected by the US Passport situation since most tourists are Americans. Increase in airfares is also a factor, along with annoying security measures.

[El_Uruguayo]

from today's DR1 headlines:

Tourism sector not concerned
The vice president of the National Hotel and Restaurant Association (ASONAHORES), Arturo Villanueva, says that the tourism industry is not concerned about the regional decline of tourism reported by the Caribbean Tourism Association. He said that the tourism sector has successfully begun the process of diversifying the options and offers for tourists. Villanueva made these statements in response to a 2006 report featured in the Wall Street Journal that found that tourism in the region had declined by 3.8% and also declined internationally by 5%.

The trend is not DR specific.

[bob saunders]

They are complaining about the same sort of drop at niagara falls. Security issues, higher Canadian dollars, less spare money, more expensive gas, fear, inflation lots of reasons.

[vegasdiva]

Bob Saunders lists the reasons. Not just in Canada, but America, too. Here's a link to one of today's top stories on MSN.com about travel from US this summer.
Summer Travel Trends: Beaches Popular, Prices Rise - MSN Travel Articles
Summer Travel Trends: Beaches Popular, Prices Rise - MSN Travel Articles

Also agree with amparocorp, prices of flights not budging and seem to be inching upward. Electricity just went up again. Postage, too. Fuel costs are affecting everyone everywhere.

I'm not an economist, but it seems in a country whose #1 industry is tourism, the lack of it is going to hurt. Is it possible that Villanueva's comments (tourism industry not concerned) are just positive spin? Similarly, I don't buy "the press" about america's economy being strong. Maybe it's not in the dumps, but "average americans" are concerned here. Just do a search on recent press/news about mortgage/banking and housing industries.