Originally Posted by jruane44
because if the peso goes again on 50-1 the prizes for all daily needed goods will go up that way, too, so it would be like it had been the last time, he would have 5000 pesos for his 100 dollars but could buy less milk or rice aso than before for 3500 pesos.
after the last 'high' of the exchange rate went down i did til today not see what rates/products went down in an equal %%%.
at the moment the exchange rate comes close to 40 pesos per dollar we will face the first 40+% of rising rates for all daily needed products, in case it would reach a 50 pesos per dollar i would expect at least 2, maybe 2 1/2-3 times the rates compared to today.
and that would sure be again a disaster for a huge part of the citizens because their working hours would be again worth much less liters of milk/lbs of meat aso aso.
and the 2nd disaster of the same kind in such a short time period will even effect much more than the first.
right on your comparison between the US and the Dominican currency.
but such is too simple to have value about the real value of one of those currencies.
look on the differences between US$ and Euro the last months,
the Euro been this year on a top of around $1.60.- compared to the dollar, went down to $1.1587.- and is back up rising now.
in the stats of the link i could not find that lil disturbance, so would that mean it was only the euro who 'weakened' a lot and comes back or was it the dollar who had a 'strengthening' and weaks back down??
i don't know,
i am really not speculating on currencies, i always try to keep them in their currency and use them that way without exchanging them to others.
early this summer when the dollar started to strengthen/euro started to weaken compared to dollars, what ever of both been the reason, i had some dollars free at my hand and got offered a good deal to buy euros. i planned and still do to visit europe in summer 2009, so i thought it may be a good moment to get some pocket money in euros aside. i bought euros and paid them in US dollars. i did not think about a breakdown of the euro compared to the us dollar and more important, i did not plan to change that money back into some other currency. just a lil bit up or down would not been important, because once i purchased the euros i anyways had no plans to trade them, i just wanted to keep them for the 2009 summer trip there. this fall i had the situation where i needed some cash, i did not have enough dollars or pesos to cover the leak, so i had to pull some euros out from under the mattress and exchange them in pesos, heck, compared to what i paid for them few months prior i had a deficit i really don't wanna talk about. my lil cash leak been resolved, yes, but if i would not have changed those dollars in euros, just let them in dollars and changed them in pesos when needed would have saved me the money for many x-mas employee parties like i had one for the boys this afternoon.
never compare just 2 currencies to each others.
that the dollar shows moving up to the peso MAY mean the peso is weakening, but it also may mean that just the dollar is strong against all others at that moment and the peso may be stable compared to them except to the dollar.
it's a devil's game,
that's why i don't like to trade currencies,
i wanted to purchase what i purchased at that time and the available currency been only the at that moment weak euros which i bought prior to that "shopping idea".
i really hope we will not come any close to the 40 pesos per dollar the next 2 months(without any gas-rates raises), it would raise the rates for the daily needed stuff a lot and bring a very bad taste to the many people who earn their money on a fix pesos number.
and an important point actually many people don't see in it's importance:
the gas rates are down, completely down, half than they've been when on top rates THIS 2008 year, but no rates of anything did significantly drop down.
i did not see not even one cabby driver who lowered his rates because the gas costs half than a short while ago, public transportation tickets are more expensive than ever. neither did i realize such when i purchase some bred or chicken or rice or such. we are actually in the high danger of a softly falling (softly because with a lot of gubmin money 'stabilized') Peso while the important rates factor of the country, which is the rate for the GASOLINE/COMBUSTIBLE PARA LAS PLANTAS, is in the cellar.
let that gas go up just a few lil percentos and we will have a disaster, the gubmin does not have the resources to balance such with an other 100 or 200 millions to stabilize.
if the pound of chicken costs early february 200 pesos while salaries are today's, that's when people are on the streets with the police force on their side.
the real question is what happens when the us dollar depreciates over the next year vs the majors and what affect it will have on the peso. i think leonel finally gets it but is he too late to the game and will we have to suffer the same consequences as the US where our purchasing power is severely diminished because of too many dollars in circulation and too few goods.
the purchasing power is decreasing worldwide, that the effect of a worldwide economy crisis, and of course such will effect the lil Isle the same than other countries.
this x-mas season been booked and all is moving on a 100% occupancy, but in case of the turism here i await strong downslides this upcoming spring and summer compared to the prior year.
the touroperators will throw out a bunch of great deals to occupy their contingents on planes and at the resorts, many people may skip 2009 and not go on vaca overseas or to the caribbean.
Tags for this Thread