When blows out the "Condominium-bubble" in the area of Cabarete ?

[financial analyst]

The US real estate bubble blows out with a big bang the last months. The buildings of private houses crashes since around one year. The old FED-Präsident Mr Greenspan said 2 times in the last weeks that he fears also an economic recession.

In the area of Cabarete also are many signs for a Condominium-bubble:
1. The last 1 or 2 Jahr were built around 5 times more Condos than the hole 10 years before.
2. On around every second corner starts a new Condo-project.
3. Around 99% of all new buildings are Condos.
4. The prices have grown around 4-5 time higher then before 10 years and are for an developing country of the lower level like the D.R. very high.
5. Many speculators are in the market and buying with credits, the think they can make the fast money.
6. Cabarete has now more real estate brokers then supermarkets
7. Many Investors think that they can rent the Condos easy on the other side big hotels like the Barcelo are closing and were distroyed because the have no guests.

For me the question is only when the bubble blows out.

[Tamborista]

Mister Financial Analyst:

So how do we short the Cabarete Real Estate Market?
It's not like we can trade it like a REIT on The NYSE.

tambo'

[johne]

Originally Posted by financial analyst

The US real estate bubble blows out with a big bang the last months. The buildings of private houses crashes since around one year. The old FED-Präsident Mr Greenspan said 2 times in the last weeks that he fears also an economic recession.

In the area of Cabarete also are many signs for a Condominium-bubble:
1. The last 1 or 2 Jahr were built around 5 times more Condos than the hole 10 years before.
2. On around every second corner starts a new Condo-project.
3. Around 99% of all new buildings are Condos.
4. The prices have grown around 4-5 time higher then before 10 years and are for an developing country of the lower level like the D.R. very high.
5. Many speculators are in the market and buying with credits, the think they can make the fast money.
6. Cabarete has now more real estate brokers then supermarkets
7. Many Investors think that they can rent the Condos easy on the other side big hotels like the Barcelo are closing and were distroyed because the have no guests.

For me the question is only when the bubble blows out.

Just returned home early from a St. Paddy's day party to a enjoy a good laugh with your posting.The reason I am laughing is this is such an old style of "bottom fishing" Why did you select Cabarete as a place you would like to buy/live? (as I don't believe you have no interest in it)Do you really think a one man campaign will be effective in bringing the market down ans permit you to buy at your price.
Oh well, pleasant dreams my friend---let me know when "the bubble blows out" (aka -the bubble bursts)

[Ladybird]

John I think you have celebrated a little too much as this is evident from your response. I have been dealing in property for 25 years and I predicted about 1 year ago that we would see a collapse in the market in general. Its happening with a slow bang. Cabarete is overloaded with new projects and so is Sosua. The market cannot sustain this growth. There are less buyers than 2 years ago and yet idiot constructors carry on. We have already begun signs of recession with more and more people out of work. Those developers that followed my advice have not been hit too hard, but the others will learn. Already we have many owners trying to sell their properties
without success. Look at the amount of properties up for sale.
A contact at the airport said this season they had 600 less flights from Canada alone coming in. And we all know that the housing market in the USA has hit big problems, this follows on, so the snowbirds arent coming in.
Ask the restaurant owners and look at the bars/clubs in Sosua. Cabarete has the young crowd to support the social scene but most of these rent short term. There wont be the clientele to rent all these properties being constructed and the owners will be hit hard financially - Wallop!
Prices have already increased on The Cap since wind of 'The Trump' coming in to construct was released, so a lot of new investment is not going to come to the North Coast.

[planner]

Good post both to the OP and Ladybird.

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by Tamborista

Mister Financial Analyst:

So how do we short the Cabarete Real Estate Market?
It's not like we can trade it like a REIT on The NYSE.

tambo'

Do we short it, Tambo, or do we ignore it? For those of us not involved in real estate, already owning (but not in Cabarete), and not wishing to sell our homes the same cyclical rules as have always operated will probably still apply. So what financial analyst & Ladybird are referring to is a cull & that's probably no bad thing, the 'action' moves to another area (like Punta Cana) and the cycle begins all over again in the original area. Is there a financial term for chasing it as opposed to shorting it.............?

[financial analyst]

frist: sorry for my incorrect english, it`s not my motherlanguage.

Tamborista + johne you are wrong when you think I want short the market. I`m living since more then 10 years in Cabarete and for these prices I never would buy anything. People how buy`s for these prices have to much money or know nothing about this country or both.

"bottom fishing" (the joke of the week). The bottom ly`s miles under the actual prices. "Top selling" or "searching for the last fools" is the better discription. The same as in the technology-bubble on the stockmarket in 1999.

Please tell me whats wrong in my frist coment???

[Ladybird]

Originally Posted by Lambada

Do we short it, Tambo, or do we ignore it? For those of us not involved in real estate, already owning (but not in Cabarete), and not wishing to sell our homes the same cyclical rules as have always operated will probably still apply. So what financial analyst & Ladybird are referring to is a cull & that's probably no bad thing, the 'action' moves to another area (like Punta Cana) and the cycle begins all over again in the original area. Is there a financial term for chasing it as opposed to shorting it.............?

History has shown in other countries that the run down or undeveloped areas are the place to invest, but you are right that the cycles do seem to operate, however I would never invest in Sosua and Cabarete at this time, they are well overpriced now and wont see a good return on new investment.
One important point here is that a lot of the new constructions offer finance so it will take a while for the bang of the bubble when the pain is felt. Many of these constructors have no experience in the international property market which is a totally different ball game to any domestic market.
Donald Trump knew exactly what he was doing on his pre-emptive press release, hence all the new investment money flooding in before hes laid a
brick, but hes laid the foundations!!! to protect his turf financially.

[Lambada]

Your English is fine (a lot better than my German ). The market always operates on what people are prepared to pay - whether that is a common sense price or a ludicrous price & like you I've seen a few of the latter........ Sometimes I have a really good laugh at the prices quoted on some of the internet websites, particularly of realtors no-one has ever heard of running some fly by night operation from their living rooms.

But the price has nothing to do with the value or the worth, does it?

Ladybird, I wouldn't have invested in the areas you mention at any time, but that's for a whole lot of different reasons.........

[Ladybird]

Originally Posted by financial analyst

frist: sorry for my incorrect english, it`s not my motherlanguage.

Tamborista + johne you are wrong when you think I want short the market. I`m living since more then 10 years in Cabarete and for these prices I never would buy anything. People how buy`s for these prices have to much money or know nothing about this country or both.

"bottom fishing" (the joke of the week). The bottom ly`s miles under the actual prices. "Top selling" or "searching for the last fools" is the better discription. The same as in the technology-bubble on the stockmarket in 1999.

Please tell me whats wrong in my frist coment???

Nothing wrong with your analyst, its the fools investing now that have seached too late.