Stormy Season 2012

[MikeFisher]

Captain Kirk is on the road to Hurricane's Heaven this afternoon,
weakening as walking over cooler waters now towards the North,
he should not become a threat to any Landmass.

Leslie shows no siginificant changes since hours, still on 999mb of Central pressure, walking WWNW'wards.
no changes on the expected Tracking so far,
Leslie should pass the Northernmost islands on their NE far out of a dangerzone of vicinity,
some swells and clouds for the DR Eastshores,
threatening Bermuda and then (here we start a long range forecast, so that's with high uncertainties) coming closer to the US Eastshores. she will be very slow on that approach as the steering currents are forecasted to collapse, so she will stay over water to Intensify slowly but steadily before reaching Eastern US or even canadian Soil, I see the eastern US Mid Atlantic States as the much more likely destin.
a Cat2 Hurricane by Sunday Leslie's High Surf should arrive to bounce the US Eastshores starting during Tuesday, so the usual dangerous ripptides and Beach Erosion can be awaited for a quiet long time period, as Leslie will not run on fast forward speed by then (according to the actual long range Steering Winds outlook, which can of course change drastically til then).

nothing else to have an eye on at the moment, it's anyways enough, more than enough for this promised "Low Activity Season below Average", below Average my Azz.

cheers

Mike

[Hlywud]

Leslie appears to be headed for the graveyard, is that how you see it Mike?

[MikeFisher]

til now Leslie doesn't look like a graveyard runner.

the Northernmost Islands will be under her Rainbands, as they reach out for several hundred miles out of her SW,
the DR East from Samana to Cap Cana will get rough Sea Conditions and high Surf.
til now it looks like the closest approach of Hurricane Leslie will be before mid Monday o around 550miles of a distance,
so we will stay easy away from her strong rainbands and we stay anyways away from her Thunderstorms, but $hitty cloudy weather for a couple days early/mid next week is something to await.
she is by now not heading for the Graveyard, Heading is towards Bermuda and before arriving there the steering winds are supposed to die down, so Hurricane Leslie would be there in the middle of the WestAtlantic without fuel for forward speed.
what can not be forecasted that far ahead is what steering winds will come up there in a few days.
the Models pedict by now Steering Winds to bring Leslie towards the US Eastshores or up to Canadian Soil, but there are also some who forecast that she will be pushed out to the Graveyard then.
nonethless of those long range steering forecasts she is a Hurricane and slowly but steadily rising powers, specially Size of Thunderstorm Areas, so she is producing a huge Stormsurge which can be expected to bring some Beach Erosions to the Beaches in a large Vicinity.

Mike

[MikeFisher]

Captain Kirk is walking NE'wards and going down over cooler waters, no dangers from him for anyone.

Tropical Storm Leslie is struggling under high windshear on her Northwest,
all Thunderstorm activity is located on her Southeast now.
she is bothered a lot, no strengthening to see since over 24hrs.

it is no longer awaited that she could become a Hurricane while close to the Islands, not during the next 2-3 days, her powers may even get a bit down during the next couple days.
herclosest approach to Hispaniola will be far out on our NE, as she is folling the low pressure Teasing of Kirk,
running actually NW'wards she will continue to turn and should walk slowly straight North around monday night/tuesday ahead.
no dangers for our Paradise Isle from Leslie, she will not bother us.
the further outlook is too far of an advance to be any accurate, as the steering winds are still expected/forecasted to go down, so Leslie may get stuck with very slow forward movement over perfectly warm waters for several days by mid week, such would be in vicinity of Bermuda then, but a Storms moves and powers can not be forecasted acurately so long ahead of time, too much can change by then.

Invest 99L is nothing to be watched, it is a break off from the Jetstream and will not influence any landareas.

at the moment there is nothing of Stormy Danger out there for us

time to get da BBQ ready on da Beach

Mike

[MikeFisher]

on her very slow Pace to NNW Leslie is almost stalled.
she did not intensify again while the steering winds collapsed, she is located between 2 low pressure Areas, nothing pushes her forward. the Storm will not necessarily die there due that, the opposite could be the case once the high windshear goes down, as she is over very warm Waters with no Dry Air in vicinity.
nobody knows how long that situation will last, some hours or several days.
once on the Move again she could move into any direction, it just depends out of where the steering wind will blow.

the positive with a Low Surface Pressure System as TRopical Storm Leslie nearby:
we are Dead Calm here in Punta Cana, Zero Waves on the Ocean, Zero Wind on all Levels, perfect Blue Skies today.

have a great new week everyone,
nothing bad in vicinity of Hispamiola at this time

Mike

[MikeFisher]

Lesliebeen stalled out for many hours, now she is on a slow forward movement, and that is heading North/NNW'wards, fully away from Hispaniola, no rare strange direction/behavior surprises.
Leslie is very disorganized but did not loose any of her windpowers, still on over 60mphr, maybe 65mphr winds.
I guess tomorrow the movement and steering winds will be clear enough to give the models a better idea about what to await from her during the following 5-8 days, she will quiet be a longliving Storm.
the week steering patterns at present combined with the forecasted ones would bring her to a Landfall/near bypass far North aroundNova Scotia, but that's many days from now and she also can take her full turn and head NE into nowhere.
powers by then can be anything from a Tropical Depression to a Cat2 Hurricane, so the northamerican Continent's powers will monitor Leslie for an other full week or so.

Tropical depression #13 shows no changes, a No-Runner for the Islands, wandering NW'wards in a safe distance to the Islands.

actually nothing out there which would look like a threat to our Paradise Island,
here on the East we should enjoy some more days like yesterday and today, means clear blue skies, zero wind, zero waves, just the pure heat of a Caribbean Island's Summer.

in shorter words:

It's Beach Time, Guys!

Mike
btw,
I guess the Topic will rest for a couple days now, as nothing is within a 1000 miles vicinity.

[caribmike]

That's fine! I can do very well without Mike*, sorry Mike


*which would be the next one on the list...

[MikeFisher]

That's fine! I can do very well without Mike*, sorry Mike


*which would be the next one on the list...

ha ha ha,
yeah,
in that case I can do quiet well ''witho myself'' then, too, lol.
but with such a wonderful name I guess we have to wait til our real Peak Time, 3rd week of September, to grow something ''worthy'' to have my name on it, yikes.
but Noap,
I don't think we will have such a long period without a new name up, even that I like the Idea of such brake, as I plan on some Bodywork on the Boats, and for that the sunny days are the needed requirements.

Mike

[MikeFisher]

Tropical Storm Michael is Up, out of TD#13.
but a No Show for Us,
that's how I like myself, lol

Mike

[MikeFisher]

caribmike,
even not threatening any Landareas,
My Hurricane "Michael" is the first Mayor Hurricane of the Season, running a 115mphr windspeeds, a Cat3 Cyclone Cape Verde Styled. he is around it's Tops now, should not intensify much further before starting to weaken down slowly.

Leslie reached her Hurricane Status and is still almost stationary/not really moving forward since days, just drifting a bit northwards. due that "standing still" she stirrs up colder waters from the Ocean's Depth and such hinders a fast intensification, without the breakdown of the steering currents a few days ago she would have been a Mayor Hurricane for the Northamerican Eastshores, they went quiet lucky on that one.
her Surf is bouncing the Eastshores since a longer while and those bouncing powers will grow as Leslie grows in Strength as a Hurricane, little by little she should reach Cat 2 powers easily.
the Models are completely confused about da weird Girlie, completely ununited in case of her future Tracking and her future powers. the forecasts about upcoming steering winds are not much of help neither, she could become anything and go anywhere in a couple days or in 5 days or in .... . for sure she will not be gone any soon.
I say the New England States and their Coast is out of the Game in case of a direct Hit by a strong Cyclone, chances for Nova Scotia are still present but decrease every day, New Foundland holds now the highest possibilities for a Landfall, but that far up North I would not a wait a strong Cat2 Hurricane at Landfall, more likely a Tropical Storm Force will be left after crossing cooler Waterbodies to reach da North.
and there's also the chances that upcoming steering currents would push her ENE and then out to Hurricane's Heaven, da Graveyard, but by forecasted "possible" steering Patterns a Landfall somewhere up North is more likely than the Graveyard.

Isaac does not wanna Die,
even that his name is gone, remaints of Isaac broke off the System and wandered over Alabama(YES, Over Land!) southwards, now named Invest 90L and on the way to become a further Pain in the Butt over the Waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Isaac in Disguise. Conditions over the Gulf make the whole region very vulnerable for more formations of tropical systems, this 2012 forecasted "Low/below average Season" is anything but below average and we did not even reach halftime of the "hot phase" of the Season.

as for the far East, our Highway, it is quiet but will not stay so for much longer.
the next Wave is approaching Atlantic Waters from the African Westshores, should get a Invest number within 24hrs from now, and the invironment is very well prepared to make it a Tropical System etc etc etc.
looks like it may form a bit more North than a typical Cape Verde Big Boy/Gal, but we will see in a few days where exactly a Center will be defined, to get an Idea about movement.
for now it looks too far North to become a threat for the Antilles, more an other Michael or Leslie for the Northern Routes.

for the ones who have their fable for watching Storms, that Mayor Hurricane Michael offers today beautiful views from outer space/satellite, he is small in size but a "perfect organized Storm", full circle, full spin, clear Eye with a eyewall protected by heavy thunderstorms all around the Center, upper Level Outflow present at all locations/all sides, this Storm on a position where Isaac or Leslie had been over perfect warm waters would have become a Storm of the Century, good to see he can be watched on Satellite on a harmless Route and will not come close to any Land/Island/inhabited Areas.

as for our Island,
we are fine for many more days of sweet Pardise Island Beachlife, as usual, as we deserve it.

enjoy it all
have Fun

Mike