Tropical Storm Alert: Fabian Is Headed This Way

Hillbilly · #1 08-31-2003, 01:01 PM

Not to get upset or anything, but as of 10:49 this morning (Sunday) Fabian was heading due West at 13 miles per hour about two days East of here, at 18.1 degrees North.

However, the probablities of a direct hit are reasonably low. It will either veer to the North (most likely) or go to the South. My experience shows that at this latitude and at this distance, the hurricane will go to the North. Maybe some good waves in Cabarete...

WE WILL GET RAIN--and this is good since we need it.

However, you should take normal precautions and keep water batteries and some canned food on hand... See DR1 Archives for safety tips.

HB

Ken · #2 08-31-2003, 01:32 PM

I've been tracking this storm for the past 2 days. Some times it goes west, sometimes west north west. The latest report showed it going west, but the National Hurricane Center believes it will pass well north of the Dominican Republic
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...IF/311508W.gif

The storm is still a long way from the DR. It was 1050 miles from Samana as of 11am this morning. Like all hurricanes in the region, Fabian's progress should be watched since these storms don't always perform as the National Hurricane Center expects them to. But there is reason to believe that the storm will pass to the north since storms on the track it is following most always take a turn toward the north.

XanaduRanch · #3 08-31-2003, 04:44 PM

Fabian is a relatively small hurricane so if it takes the track expected we won't even see any rain, unfortunately. Maybe, just maybe, some good surf in Cabarete as it passes.

All hurricanes in that part of the Atlantic to strengthen significantly require a fair sized area of high pressure on the north side of the system to cut down on shearing which might otherwise tear the system apart. Fabian has that. It is tracking along the south side of this high pressure area which is in the central Atlantic and moving east. As Fabian gets around the other side of the high it is expected to steer northwest and maybe eventually north 1) because it's around the high by that time, and 2) because an area of low pressure, a trough or cold front, will be moving off the eastern U.S. at the same time that will literally provide a 'valley' for the storm to roll into and curve in that direction.

Tom (aka XR)

andy a · #4 08-31-2003, 05:50 PM

Do you have any info as to the water temperature along the projected route of Fabian?

It seems to me that the summer has been slightly cooler than normal (despite hotspots like Western Europe and the Northwest US). I wonder if this can be confirmed (or denied) by ocean temperature.

XanaduRanch · #5 08-31-2003, 06:01 PM

Andy, I really don't have any information about current sea surface temperatures versus historical averages. But here's a couple of links. This is the current sea surface temperature anamoly and this is the current sea surface temperature plot.

Tom (aka XR)

andy a · #6 08-31-2003, 06:07 PM

If the western Atlantic should happen to be slightly cooler than normal (not yet confirmed), I would expect that to put somewhat of a damper on the intensity of hurricanes. Of course there are other factors as well.

Edited to add:

How did you edit your post so fast to correct my name and not get tracked?

XanaduRanch · #7 08-31-2003, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by andy a
How did you edit your post so fast to correct my name and not get tracked?

Escott's not the only computer genius on the board.

Escott · #8 08-31-2003, 07:36 PM

I cant mess around anymore. Robert threatened to throw me off.

Hmm... maybe I should throw him off first?

If you edit within a short time it doesn't track as an edit. fwiw

XanaduRanch · #9 08-31-2003, 07:40 PM

How would he keep you out?

Hillbilly · #10 08-31-2003, 08:29 PM

At 12 mph. A Cat 2 storm. I agree that it will probably head North, for all the good reasons that XR put up and the fact that they go North more often than not.

Keep your finger crossed for the rain...

Hb