Current Caribbean and Atlantic Weather

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

All is quiet in our area today, in terms of tropical storm formation. Read your local forecasts to see local conditions.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

There are no indications of tropical storms forming in our area or over the Atlantic and off the African coast today. Read your local advisories to see local conditions. I expect it will be the usual sunny and hot conditions with tropical showers later in the day.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

At this time there are no tropical cyclone formations in our area. Two tropical waves may bring further isolated tropical showers and thunderstorms. It is hot and humid out there. Typical Caribbean Summer Weather.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Besides tropical waves, everything looks to be quiet. Hot, humid with possible tropical showers. Looking at the satellite images, it seems like we are lying in between two tropical waves and there is very little cloud cover over the DR at the moment. Normal summer caribbean weather with no storms on the horizon at this time.

[Hillbilly]

Yesterday's news told of a man hit by lightening in Cana Chapetón down the Northwest Line. (La Línea Noroeste)......The fool was in a banana farm during a violent thunderstorm with lots of lightening.

LEARN THE 30 - 30 RULE: If you see a lightening flash and there is less than 30 seconds until you hear the rumble of the thunder--the next lightening strike could be very close to you!
Wait for 30 minutes after the last clap of thunder before going out doors again.

This, along with the rule of always taking shelter in a thunderstorm, but never, ever, under a tree!, might save your life one day.

HB

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Forecaster Pash tells us that cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over portions of the east-central caribbean sea and the adjacent land areas are associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. Upper-level winds are forecast to be unfavorable for development.

This tropical wave brings an increased change of tropical showers today. It is blazing hot in the DR and a few showers are welcome to cool us down just a little. Read the specific area reports for more information.

And elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday. Finally, HB's 30 - 30 rule is a good one..

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

Cloudiness and showers over portions of the Central Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable for tropical cyclone development. Locally, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica and Eastern Cuba as the system moves West-Northwestward near 10 mph.

Looking over the Atlantic, all looks quiet and there are no tropical cyclones at this time. There sure are a number of tropical waves in our Caribean area presently. We are watching them carefully.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

An area of cloudiness and showers extends from the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras east-northeastward across Jamaica to Eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. This activity has continued to decrease and conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

There are no tropical cyclones in The Atlantic at this time.

I happened to be in Samana yesterday. Wet, rainy, windy and grey. Hope they see some sunshine today.

The overall weather patterns are quite active and busy these days. We see a number of tropical waves born in the Atlantic and two tropical waves in the Caribbean at this time. A system in the West Atlantic that is approaching the Carolinas, may develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

If you look at this satellite image, you can see that we're relatively cloud and shower free for the moment. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html. This does not mean that localized showers cannot happen and they probably will later in the day in the coastal areas. In our 'tropical cyclone hatcheries', there are no signs of tropical storm or cyclone development for the moment.

Hot conditions with localized showers for today. However, read the local weather reports as our island is diverse in its geography and what works in one area, does not necessarily work in another.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM discussion - for the Caribbean Sea

There is quite a complex thing weatherwise happening around us. There are no tropical cyclones in formation at this time but conditions seem to bring us closer to the kind of weather pattern that would be the ideal breeding ground for tropical stoms and cyclones. From Noaa's discussion this morning...

The primary focus today is over the Western Caribbean and Central America where
....deep layered moisture pooling,
....associated with a pair of tropical waves,
....coupled with diffluent flow aloft,
is producing widespread cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms. This is happening primarily around West Honduras and El Salvador westward into S Mexico, East of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
The strongest of this activity is currently located over Guatemala and Belize, but additional activity is moving onshore Honduras/Nicaragua.
Strong showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the Yucatan channel.

Now here is where this weather pattern affects us.

This activity should gradually spread westward during the next 24 hours as a much drier airmass currently over the Central Caribbean overspreads this area. Over the Central and East Caribbean...Middle to Upper Level confluence and dry/stable air W of an upper low near 13N 62W dominates the area East of Jamaica.

This pattern is suppressing deep convective activity excepting for some widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm currently over the North East Caribbean, mainly North of 13N and East of 70W. This means us here in the DR - widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms....

Now here is the important part. The pattern will become more unstable over the E Caribbean during the next two days with increasing cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms as the upper low moves Westward and deep layered moisture returns. So, we may see more water coming down and more wind over the next few days. This is all fairly normal for this time of the year - and those tropical waves keep forming.