Current Caribbean and Atlantic Weather

[Chris]

Yesterday's pattern seem to be continuing, albeit a little further to the North. For us, the pattern of scattered showers and thundershowers should continue. This is a good thing as these showers bring a little relief from the summer heat. There are no tropical cyclones forming anywhere in our area at present. Have a look at the local weather reports for localized information. A tropical depression is threatening form in the Bay of Campeche, about 140 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Although too far away to be of direct consequence, this does affect our overall weather picture.

From the 530 AM discussion - for the Caribbean Sea
Due to the mid/upper ridge over the Gulf, there is Northerly flow over the Gulf West of 77 West. This is forcing remnant showers South into the West Caribbean mainly North of 20 North and West of 77 West. A cut-off upper low is over the Eastern Caribbean near 15 North 69 West with a mid/upper trough extending from North East of Puerto Rico near 20 North 65 West SouthWest, to inland over Venezuela, near 11 North and 71 West. This is generally leaving the Eastern Caribbean dry, with only isolated low level showers north of 15 North and East of 76 West and scattered showers over the lesser Antilles.

Here is the satellite picture for the day. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

and the map on this page (scroll down a little) shows the DR in relation to the Eastern and Western Caribbean.
http://stormcarib.com/climatology/

[Chris]

From the 5.30 Tropical Weather Outlook for the for the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea

There are no tropical cyclones forming anywhere in our area at present. Have a look at the local weather reports for localized information. A mid/upper level trough extends from the Central/Western Atlantic through the windward passage over Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. This trough is leaving our area of the Caribbean mostly dry. As the trough contues to shift West, we may see a few more tropical showers over the weekend.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Cloudiness and Thunderstorms continue over a large portion of the Central and Southwestern Caribbean Sea...primarily associated with a westward moving tropical wave. There are no signs of organization at this time, but upper-level winds are forecast to become favorable for some development during the next day or two as the system moves over the Western Caribbean Sea.

There are no tropical systems developing in the Atlantic at present.

Here you can see our current cloud cover. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html. It is a good thing too as it will keep us a little cooler.

Uhm, July 1st today. Perhaps I should go and check the statistics for tropical storms and hurricanes in July.

OK, went to check statistics. But first for those weather enthusiasts among us that are really 'out there..read loco' check this out. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Caribbean.shtml. You can put in the buoy number (the two closest to us is SJNP4 and MGIP4 and see the actual sea conditions. This is interesting to watch during a tropical storm.

Oh yes, before I forget, the probability of having a named storm in July is for us, very low... http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_prob_july.gif

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave is producing an extensive area of cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms across portions of the North-Central and North-Western Caribbean sea and adjacent land areas. Upper-Level winds are gradually expected to become more favorable and some slow development could occur over the next couple of days as the system moves West-Northwestward at 10 - 15 mph.

At present, there are no tropical storms forming in the Atlantic.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

...The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on tropical depression three, located over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, about 100 miles SouthWest of Cozumel.

...A large and well-defined tropical wave is moving through the Windward Islands this morning. This system is moving westward at about 20 MPH...and continues to show signs of organization. Conditions appear somewhat favorable for slow development to occur over the next couple of days. Squally (for the landlubbers, this means frequent and quick tropical storms...) weather will continue to spread across the Southern Lesser Antilles...NorthEastern Venezuela and the SouthEastern Caribbean Sea today, resulting in period of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Let's see what this wave does as it gets a little closer to us.

Elsewhere...Tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM advisory - for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Tropical Depression 3 became Cindy, our 2nd named tropical storm of the season, located in the Gulf of Mexico about 225 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississipi river.

More important for us today however, is tropical depression four which is located in the Eastern Caribbean Sea about 415 miles/670 kilometers south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. This tropical depression is becoming better organized and is nearing tropical storm strength.

A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Southern Coast of Hispaniola later today. Have a look at the graphics. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...623.shtml?3day

At 5 AM EDT the center of tropical depression four was located near lattitude 12.6 North..Longitude 64.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph or 28 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph or 55 km/hr with higher gusts. This depression could become a tropical storm later today.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM tropical weather discussion - for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea

Stormy weather with bands of showers/thunderstorms covers the Leeward Islands to Hispaniola courtesy of moisture from Dennis which is passing us well to the South.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

[Chris]

The weather news of the day in the Caribbean is still Dennis, who has slowed down somewhat and is strenghtening while he spins down on Jamaica. For us, it was wet and windy night, courtesy of Dennis trailing his bands all over us. Strong showers and thunderstorms cover practically all of the Dominican Republic. Low lying areas are flooded and you all should take good care while driving as many roads are flooded. Early estimates are that between 5 and 10 inches of rain fell over last 12 hours. Dennis could become a strong Category 2 Hurricane when it reaches Jamaica later today.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean the weather is fairly nice.

Generally over the Atlantic this morning we see two tropical waves with another tropical wave just north of Brazil, as well as a cell of showers a little northeast of Barbados. It is too early to tell whether these could develop into storms.

Here is our picture for the day.. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Have a look at the local reports for local conditions.

[Chris]

From the 530 AM tropical weather discussion - for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Dennis dominates the weather story in our immediate area. Although we're not really feeling the effects of Dennis any longer, the current cloud cover, wind and tropical showers can still be ascribed to the lingering effects of Dennis.

In the mean time, satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with a tropical wave located halfway between African and Lesser Antilles, has become a little better organized. There is a potential for slow development as the wave moves westward during the next day or two.

We'll keep our eyes on this one.

[Chris]

From the 530 PM tropical weather discussion - for the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea

All eyes are still on Hurricane Dennis who, around 2.30 pm today, slammed into the Florida Panhandle just North of Pensacola. We wish the storm-weary and storm-battered folks in this area all the best.

Closer to home, a vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure area...is located about 1180 miles east of the Southern Lesser Antilles. This system has continued to become better organized and conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to develop overnight or tomorrow. The wave is moving Westward at 10 to 15 MPH.

We´ll keep our eyes on this one!