Current Caribbean and Atlantic Weather - 2006

[Chris]

Good morning on this first day of the hurricane season for 2006. While we were sleeping, Noaa prepared the first of many tropical weather outlooks that will be issued for the season. This morning, our own system of weather data collection worked flawlessly and we're all set for the season. Using a forecasting window till Friday of this week, Noaa tells us that there is nothing threatening on the horizon currently.

Taking a more comprehensive look over the Atlantic and looking at the model guidance, there seems to be some activity around the Azores but nothing that we should be concerned about at this stage.

We have warm Caribbean waters, an active ITZC and an above normal season ahead of us. Be hurricane prepared! And always, always, take the word of the National Hurricane Center over anything you read on the Internet, here or otherwise.

The names for this year are: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William. If we run out of names like last year, the Greek alphabet will again come to the rescue.

For this year, we'll cover our own Island weather here, but taking a larger view than the reports that we have coming in from the different areas of the Dominican Republic. Do remember the Dominican Republic is a large island and different things happen weatherwise in the different areas. If there are systems forming, threatening or getting close to us, we'll cover that here. In the event of threatening weather on our Island, the DR1 status page will have the status of hotels and tourist areas here .. http://www.dr1.com/status/index.shtml. Feel free to subscribe to the 'alert' service.

The DR1's hurricane page with more weather links can be found here http://www.dr1.com/weather/hurricanes.shtml

[Chris]

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

Tropical Waves...

Along 36W South of 11N moving West around 20 mph.
Wave became better defined overnight and can be clearly observed on satellite images.

Along 59W South of 13N moving West around 12 mph. This wave is mostly inland over South America with strong convection covering Trinidad and Tobago.

Caribbean Sea...

Showers/thunderstorms are approaching the Windward Islands as a result of the next tropical wave to enter the area.
Other than high level clouds, the remainder of the Caribbean is mostly shower free.

[Chris]

A broad and almost stationary surface low pressure system is located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation in these areas, however this system may produce heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

We have three tropical waves making their way up towards us, but mostly island over South America and weak.

As happened during last season as well, dust storms from certain areas along the African coast line is limiting convection that may turn into tropical depressions.

[Chris]

We have no less than four tropical waves arrayed over or in the Caribbean. Mostly these tropical waves are either inland over South America, or display weak wave curvature on satellite imagery. No doubt some of these systems will make it up to our neck of the woods and leave a little rain behind.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad upper ridge over S Mexico/Central America near 18 North 90 West extends east across the caribbean into the W/Central Atlantic near 18 North, 71 West. An upper trough that stretches across the E/Central Atlantic extend into the Eastern Caribbean, undercutting the ridge from the West at the surface. Then, a further surface trough extends from Central Cuba near 22 North 79 West to over Honduras. This setup is giving the Eastern Caribbean dry air and fair skies, while the Western Caribbean is under abundant tropical moisture.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is North of 18 North from 73 West to 80 West with scattered showers / isolated thunderstorms, dotting the remainder of the Caribbean West of 70 West.

Although this is happening around us as can be seen on the Satellite image, I have no doubt we will receive a good share of stray thunderstorms / tropical showers as a result of this configuration. It will be partly cloudy most of today with showers and thunderstorms over most of the country.

[Chris]

It looks like the first tropical system in our neck of the woods is developing to the North West of us, in Cuban Waters. This is as a result of the almost stationary low that has produced widespread cloudiness and showers for us, over the past week. This system is expected to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm at any time today.

The next significant wave is forecast to enter the Eastern Caribbean early Tuesday. The wave is well-defined and quite active at this stage. With no further development, it will at the least bring some stormy weather and rain with it.

[Chris]

The Tropical System to the North West of us has developed into a Tropical Depression. The primary threat is continued heavy rains over the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba Westward. We should not be influenced by this system.

The storm track models are in disagreement about the track of this tropical depression and out of 7 models, we have 4 possible scenarios. We will keep an eye on this depression, simply because these systems are not as predictable as what we would wish them to be.

[cobraboy]

A good weather links (I use them as a pilot while in the DR):

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

This is for tropical weather.

[rellosk]

It looks like we have the first named Tropical Storm of the season.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by rellosk

It looks like we have the first named Tropical Storm of the season.

Yup We can sure mark Alberto off the list... Hope it remains a tropical storm.

[Ken]

I have it on very good authority that the third named storm of the season, the "C" storm, will either be the storm of the century or one of those feeble ones that just makes it to 39 mph so it can get a name.

Perhaps the moderator should run a poll as to which it will be.