Hurricane Ernesto

[Chris]

The current advisories indicate that Ernesto has reached tropical storm strength. As can be seen from the 3-day cone, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...145324W_sm.gif
Ernesto should pass us with a safe margin and well to the South.

At 5pm, the Government of Haiti has issued a tropical storm watch for the Southwestern Peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the Southwest Tip of Haiti.
Also at 5pm, the Government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm watch for Jamaica.
Interests in the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

At 5pm, the center of tropical storm Ernesto was located around 485 KM South-SouthWest of San Juan Puerto Rico and 660 miles East-SouthEast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ernesto is moving toward the West-NorthWest near 16 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

At the current speed and on the current track Ernesto will pass around 200 miles to the South of Santo Domingo by 2pm tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected in association with Ernesto across portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica and less rainfall is expected over Puerto Rica and the Dutch Netherland Antilles.

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

[Hillbilly]

So that's where the showers today came from.

They were nice. And the sun shown through. That's good luck!

HB

[Chris]

Where I come from, if we had clouds and rain and sun all mixed in together like today, we used to say the Jackal is after the Wolf´s wife ..

[bobandjudy]

In Haitian Creole they say, "Zombi ap bat madanm li"--the zombi is beating his wife! Bob

[Chris]

Oh man... too funny!

[Chris]

The expectations are that Ernesto will strengthen significantly over the next few days and may become a significant storm. Ernesto is now heading into warmer waters. The only issue that is still at question, is around the wind shear. If there is significant wind shear, it will hamper Ernesto from strengthening.

Fixes from the recon aircraft indicate that Ernesto is moving toward the West-Northwest or 285 degrees at around 16 mph around the periphery of a subtropical ridge. This general track is expected to continue through the forecast period with a decrease in forward speed in a day or so, as the ridge to the North weakens.

The official track forecast is in the middle of the model envelope but closer to where there is global model consensus.

At 5am this morning, the center of Ernesto was about 225 miles South of Santo Domingo and about 490 miles East-SouthEast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Today we will see more cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms as an outflow from Ernesto over our Southern Coast. We can also expect this to be quite a rainy day and this will continue until Ernesto clears our waters completely. We will follow the storm until it is past us.

Ernesto could become a potentially dangerous hurricane as it moves across the NorthWestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

[Chirimoya]

Originally Posted by bobandjudy

In Haitian Creole they say, "Zombi ap bat madanm li"--the zombi is beating his wife! Bob

And in the DR they say "se esta casando una bruja" - a witch is getting married.

[DrChrisHE]

Hey guys...I'm in NY visiting friends but my family is still in Juan Dolio. I've read the thread but don't see any wonderful projected paths like with TS Chris. I'm hoping that you've not posted them because they aren't going the DR route but CNN is still reporting that the storm MAY go toward FL which means it has to make a turn somewhere. Anyone care to answer? TIA. I'm flying back on Wednesday evening and don't do well in turbulence either. Dr. Chris

[Chris]

Here you are:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...tml?5day?large

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

[DrChrisHE]

I really appreciate that.