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Originally Posted by truely
What are your thoughts?
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I don't have any thoughts beyond 3 days out during hurricane season.
And if I did have any thoughts, I would be most probably be wrong.
5 Day out model plots has 98L just entering the Caribbean Basin - so yes, position will be south of the DR. This says nothing about track guidance and you cannot extrapolate from that point at this early stage.
Models are just models. 5 Days out, they may be anything from 1,000 miles to 5,000 out. 98L Is not even a tropical depression yet and the full set of models that I'm watching, one has it turning around in a wheelie and another one going off to the North. So, with an error factor of 1,000 miles, your guess is as good as mine as the Caribbean basin is not 1,000 miles wide at its widest point. There is no good model consensus at this point.
Closer to the time, if your airline flies, fly with them. In the DR, if you are in the country and there is a hurricane, go inland for a day or two and you will be perfectly safe. Your hotel is most probably skilled at handling hurricane safety.
Please don't let tropical waves rule your life. We see at least 50 of them every hurricane season.
1. No, we cannot tell you anything more, not even if you offer chocolates, money or hot sex ...
2. No, don't cancel your travel plans. I see nothing that will make me cancel a visit if I was in your shoes.
3. Don't watch North American Television if you're concerned about weather in the DR. Those folks will scare ya! 
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