Hurricane Season 2007

Chris · #1 05-28-2007, 12:40 PM

Hope you are all ready and well prepared for anything that may happen during this hurricane season.

We've had some weather models indicate that a possible tropical system is forming in the Western Caribbean. The data is not conclusive hoever. The pattern early in the season certainly indicates activity out there. The DR may be looking at a few wet days again.

An Eastern Pacific weather system may possible be forming - One forecaster suggested that he is saying this as an 'honorable mention' only as it is early days.

After last year's peaceful season, it it quite difficult to get myself ready and 'in the groove'. The expectation of the weather gurus remain that we are going to see an active season.

Watch this space for any future weather developments. This thread will be used for regular overviews of the weather patterns that could influence the local DR weather. The dedicated, loyal and wonderful local reporters will continue with their local reports. If there is a named storm tracking toward the DR, we will break off into a different thread.

Ken · #2 05-28-2007, 04:21 PM

We lucked out last year because an El Nino formed in late July or early August, about the time the hurricane season is most likely to affect the DR and rest of the Caribbean. But for this year the meteorologists say a La Nina is more likely to influence our weather. This means we can expect a very active season.

My request is that there be no "skyi is falling" threads started when a weather system that the meteorologists say has the potential to develop into a tropical storm forms off the coast of Africa. Let's wait until the weather system is at least at the latitude of St. Lucia before we start thinking it might come our way. That would still give us 3 or 4 days to wring our hands, which should be enough for anyone.

Chris, as the moderator, can you please do us all a favor and step on all the premature alarms before they develop into 3 or 4 page threads?

Chris · #3 05-28-2007, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ken

Chris, as the moderator, can you please do us all a favor and step on all the premature alarms before they develop into 3 or 4 page threads?

Nothing would give me more pleasure Ken! In fact, you've given me the word .. 'premature'. It sounds so much better than 'early days'.

Let me quote myself ...

"If there is a named storm tracking toward the DR, we will break off into a different thread."

Chris · #4 05-30-2007, 10:30 AM

Things are normal to the eye at least in the DR.

In the atmosphere and in terms of what is happening overall with the weather pattern, things are hopping. In the DR we can expect the normal isolated moderate showers to locally strong thunderstorms, higher humidity than usual, but cooling tradewinds should keep everyone reasonably comfortable.

The panhandle of Florida is expecting its first tropical system around this weekend .. it may be simply a wet tropical storm (and they need the water), or it may develop into something as strong as a Cat 1 hurricane.

In the big weather picture, we've had over the past number of weeks plumes of African Dust crossing the Atlantic and creating that strange haziness that one sometimes sees in the atmosphere. Two remarkable things happened .. it rained in the Sahara Desert and the temperatures in Moscow reached highs in the '90´s.

Quite Strange!

One last comment about tropical storms. The difference between a tropical storm and a Cat 1 hurricane is only 1 mile in hour in windspeed. So, this season, do not underestimate the strength of something that is described as a tropical storm.

Chris · #5 05-31-2007, 10:39 AM

The story is isolated moderate showers to locally strong thunderstorms. Again, normal for this time of year. The storm that passed the DR late yesterday, is now called Invest 92L (area of investigation) and they're tracking it to check for any development further up the line from us.

One weak tropical wave is floating about in the Atlantic trying to make its way across.

This is what we look like now.

This is the last day before hurricane season starts officially. Today, or rather tonight, is a blue moon, did you know. And the eastern pacific already has one tropical storm raging with another tropical depression.

Chris · #6 06-01-2007, 12:34 PM

We still have a very good chance of isolated moderate showers and possible thunderstorms from a fairly large upper level system of anticyclonic flow. This system lies from Florida just about over the whole Caribbean and of course, on top of the DR. Within this system is a small area of cyclonic flow, but this is fast becoming disorganized.

This is what we look like at the time of posting.

There is one weak tropical wave in the Atlantic on its way to us.

Chris · #7 06-01-2007, 12:41 PM

On this first day of the formal hurricane season there still is consensus from the weather gurus that we can expect an active season. Traditionally June has been a quiet month and the hurricane patterns only kick in seriously from about the end of July onwards. However, our area has already had its first extra-tropical storm. Here are the storm and hurricane names for this year.

Andrea - name already used for the first extratropical storm
Barry - is the next name on the list
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabriella
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Chris · #8 06-03-2007, 10:46 AM

Its time to dry out a little. Fair skies all around. (We could still get quick late afternoon or nighttime showers as is usual).

Hillbilly · #9 06-03-2007, 12:58 PM

Barry has been used too.

A storm in the Gulf of Mexico, now dissipated.

HB

Chris · #10 06-04-2007, 12:05 PM

There are scattered showers near the DR as a result of an upper high between the Cayman islands and Jamaica ... but, this will move off and we will hopefully get a few dry days. The island is wet overall and we need to dry out before the real weather starts. Generally the skies are fair and the winds are light to moderate Easterly trades.

Tropical waves are rolling in across all directions of the Atlantic -- the East, mid-Atlantic and the West. The one tropical wave present in the Caribbean is just about past us. The other three Tropical Waves still in Atlantic waters remain weak with almost no associated rain.

Goodbye to Barry and watching for Chantal. As most of you know, I'm supersticious about female storm names.