Hurricane Dean

[Andy B]

Looking at the current track and size of the hurricane, it looks like much of the island will be under the northernmost part of the storm. Access the current track, sat images, etc at A Visitors Guide to the Dominican Republic's Samana Peninsula and click on the Weather page's Storm Center link to Intellicast's weather page. Once there, put your pointer on the Severe menu link and then click Active Storm Tracks on the drop down menu. Once there, you can choose from the Graphics menu for track and satellite images info.
When you look at the projected track that will bring the eye west by north from a current position of about 8 degrees North latitude to about 12 degrees North latitude when it passes below the DR, you will then see that much of the island will be under the northernmost bands of this very large storm. Currently (at 8:30am) the very northernmost cloud band is above 20 degrees North latitude. On the north coast in Las Galeras we are at 19 degrees north latitude. This means a lot of wind and rain for much of the island, maybe not hurricane force, but strong nontheless. Even up on the north coast we will see this.

[Marilyn]

Thanks to all for keeping us informed, especially Chris and HB. I will be driving to Bavaro from SD tomorrow for the weekend; I never thought to change my plans, but was concerned about leaving my children with their grandmother to face possible tropical storm conditions, but from what I can see Santo Domingo will only have to face bad weather conditions, if anything. Meanwhile I'll be in Bavaro dancing with Rubby Perez, Los Rosario, Michel, Frank Reyes and Eddy Herrera in the Latin Music Tour. We are a group of 9 people from my job going on this tour and it never crossed our minds to cancel so if anyone has plans for Bavaro, Punta Cana, Samana, Santo Domingo or Puerto Plata area, come on down, we are open for business; and not to take any business away from Jamaica and Mexico, but Dean is heading their way and I'm sure there's plenty of rooms available in DR to accomodate anyone who wants to change travel plans

[Chris]

Marilyn, better wait and look at conditions before you plan this trip. Wait a day! The whole island will be experiencing stormy conditions.

The storm looked a bit ragged as it entered the Caribbean and weakened somewhat, perhaps because of light wind shear. But it is now organizing again, Eye is bigger - 20 miles across and pressures are dropping.

With the morning advisories, things remain the same for the next twelve hours. After that we have a slight nudge to the right, from 12 to 72 hours from now. I don't know about you, but I don't like this 'slight nudge to the right' when the storm is off our southern coast line.

The track still looks solid for the next 12 hours, after which the modelling software encounters the Upper Level Low, and agreement confidence begins to deteriorate somewhat after that.

All indications are that by the time it traverses the open water and reaches Jamaica, it will be classified a major hurricane of category 4. After that, the models diverge and I have it under good authority that there is serious work happening in the Gulf of Mexico to prepare the Gulf Oil Rigs.

So, for 12 hours the storm will be repairing itself and strengthening over mainly open waters, then on Saturday, it will start passing our island (I'm going to have a look at the size of this 'nudge' in a minute) and then it is off to Jamaica. This morning I watched the weather channel (I never watch the mainstream weather while we have a storm brewing and nearly fell off my chair laughing at the 'Bermuda Factor'. These folks will do anything for a good sound bite - The Bermuda Factor indeed! Back to Geography class for that reporter!)

AndyB you know, we can do directly to intellicast. In the weather community the irreverent saying is that weather has deteriorated since intellicast casted intelligence right out of weather.

So, as to what to do? Today we wait, tomorrow hopefully the storm passes us well to the South and then we start watching the next area of disturbance that just came off the African Coast.

[Ladybird]

Chris thanks for all your hard work in advising us. All of us folks here directly on the seafront are anxiously watching your advice/updates. We remember the damage Jeanne did to us 3 years ago, even apartments right at the back by the road were flooded. Do you think this one looks as if it could cause the same effect? Could you please advise us if/when we should get out.

I remember 3 years ago the work you put in, especially staying up all night to advise us just before she hit us.

Thanks from all of us

[Chris]

As things stand now, here is a representation of a possible damage conditions. This is an experimental product, so please don't use for planning purposes but it should give you an idea..

courtesy Central Florida Hurricane Center

[Coco Glaze]

This sucks, I am supposed to fly into Santo Domingo tomorrow from Ft Lauderdale at 1315. I hope the airlines don't cancel the flight.

[riddle760]

Chris,
I have been on this board every day reading all advice. Watching the news and weather channel. This is my first trip to Punta Cana DR, and boyfriend’s first time flying. A little nervous does not even describe how I feel. We are due to fly in on Monday 8/20. What do you think? I really value your opinion since it seems like you’re the local expert.

[Chris]

By Monday the proverbial 'Fat Lady' will have sung her song. If your airline flies, take the flight and enjoy !

[planner]

YOu are flying in on Monday and this storm will be well past us by then.

And if you look at the map Chris posted - Punta Cana is on the far right hand (eastern) tip of the country.

Relax,come on down and enjoy your holiday!

[Hillbilly]

After sending many emails to CNN, I see that Ms. Schneider has switched the DR and Haiti around again!!!
I think folks in the States had better start gathering food and clothes for their friends in Jamaica. Looks not too good for that island.
And, dear Lord, please no northern shift once it gets into the Gulf.....Texas can handle it, New Orleans, can't...

HB