Hurricane Dean

[Dre Broeders]

Newest update:
Hurricane Dean gets the power of categoria FOUR.

[Chris]

That is indeed projected for the coming Monday. And still projected to pass the DR on Sunday, but as a category 3 storm. Here is the latest cone of probability. The track keeps shifting a little further to the South of us as a result of other weather patterns in the area.

I'll work out windfields and post a little later as to the possible affect on the South coast. As a category 3 storm however, those on the South Coast need to be very aware of track changes. The models are in good agreement with the current track, so that is somewhat of a relief, but remember, it is early days.

[rubio_higuey]

category four tropical storm, not Cat 4 Hurricane

[Chris]

Category 4 Hurricane. There is no such thing as a category 4 tropical storm - at least in our current weather lexicon of words. I'll post windfields in a little while and you will be able to see if the town that you are thinking of going to, would be a good place to hang out...

[DanaP]

DAKRA I totally with you. I am also supposed to fly in on Sat, to Punta Cana but plan to spend the next 3 days in Juan Dolio, ugh!

What are the chances of evacuation? Guess I'll keep watching but seems like my plans to visit schools & look at apartments in anticipation of my upcoming move are slim.....maybe next week.

please don't think me insensitive to those who may actually be in some danger. Being a northern mountain girl myself i guess i am just assuming that this is similar to tracking the projected noreaster which might just drop 4 feet of snow in a day or so. Ppar for the DR course so to speak.

But regardless please be safe all of you and much luck!! I'll be watching whether i actually make it down on Sat or not.

d

[Janin]

What worries me is that within one day the NHC track forecast changed from a path NORTH of the DR to a route SOUTH of it....

Of course now as time progresses the predictions for our area get more and more reliable and I take comfort in the various models agreeing in a fairly tight bundle of lines.
All we can hope for is that the high pressure system in the north will keep Dean on an almost true western path.

When I typed in my coordinates in a programme it read back that Dean would pass us by at a distance of 358.9 km... given its probable track....

Janin

[mlssmui]

this may seem like a silly question..but is Punta Cana considered north or south DR? and is PC on high alert at this time? I am scheduled to fly into PC on Sunday morning..and I am worried.

[Chris]

As things stand at the moment, this is the projected distance that Dean will pass the DR at.

Punta Cana Area - 180 miles off shore - Saturday at mid-day
Santo Domingo - 165 miles off shore - Saturday evening
Isla Beata - 80 miles off shore - Saturday mid night.

These are not cast in stone but rather as things stand at the moment and they can change very easily and quickly. The complete island still falls well within the cone of probability and the track may change or shift suddenly.

Winds - if all the above holds true till Saturday afternoon, then these three areas will have projected winds of
Punta Cana - 20 miles per hour winds, storm surge, higher tides, rain
Santo Domingo - 25 miles per hour winds, storm surge, higher tides, rain
Isla Beata - 40 mile per hour winds, storm surge, higher tides, lots of rain.

Rain and winds will be felt over the whole island because at these distances, the outer bands will stretch right across the islands. The storm is fairly compact now, but it will grow larger as it gains more strength. If things stay as they are now, we will not be catastropically affected. It however is a scary thing to have a Category 3 hurricane becoming a Category 4, while it is passing your shores.

The side of the storm that will pass us in terms of winds, is the NorthEastern and NorthWestern Quadrants and usually the Northern side has more water and wind than the other half.

Should the storm track 1 degree closer, it will be 66 miles closer to our shores and you can double the winds.

[Chris]

As we stand now...



Saturday - if everything remains the same.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by DanaP

Being a northern mountain girl myself i guess i am just assuming that this is similar to tracking the projected noreaster which might just drop 4 feet of snow in a day or so.

Excepting that when the 4 feet of snow comes,you could huddle in your house and eventually dig out. With a catastrophic hurricane, it takes you and your house away with it in many pieces. (Not that I know much about snow .. does it snow 4 feet in one day?)