Hurricane Dean

[Chris]

Originally Posted by mlssmui

this may seem like a silly question..but is Punta Cana considered north or south DR? and is PC on high alert at this time? I am scheduled to fly into PC on Sunday morning..and I am worried.

It is east. You'll be biting your nails for a while longer. Follow your airline's suggestions. They know their stuff and won't fly into danger. I don't know what the folks in Punta Cana are doing .. we've not had any reports from there. My guess is they're hanging in there, watching and waiting like the rest of us.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Janin

What worries me is that within one day the NHC track forecast changed from a path NORTH of the DR to a route SOUTH of it....

It is very common when a storm is born that the track shifts. At that time, very little information is available. We've seen this happen many many times over the past number of years. It has nothing to do with the NHC's work, but much to do with the state of the tools that we have available to track these things. It is not an easy or an exact science. Dean is remarkable in holding to its 'advertised' track. We're used to more fickle weather systems. The NHC is doing an exemplary job and in the past few years, we've seen the quality of their work getting better and better. Now if the politicians just stay out of there ....

[Chris]

OK, seems like a very slight further shift to the West, which means a little further South for us. The storm is strengthening fast and we will see a major hurricane by all indications. Hurricane warnings and watches as appropriate are in effect now in the Lesser Antilles. Tomorrow we will get good guidance as the system is close enough for a hurricane hunter to investigate.
Good Night!

[FireGuy]

FYI, Dean has crossed the threshold and has become

Hurricane Dean.

It continues on it's track south of the DR with (at this stage) Jamaica and Cancun firmly in it's future sights.

Gregg

[DrChrisHE]

I'd like to remind everyone that even though Hurricane Dean APPEARS that it will miss the DR, these storms change tracks very rapidly (on ocassion they do U turns if you look at the historical tracking of storms). So, while we can PROBABLY breathe easier, I'm not writing this off yet. Even if it stays South of us, we will still get winds, storm surge and lots of rain. On the positive side, if it isn't right on top of us, I'll be out in the surf!

[Chris]

I echo DrChrisHE's comments. We're not out of the woods yet.

Hurricane Dean is continuing to strengthen. The models show that Dean will continue on its West-NorthWestward track with little interference from other weather systems. Dean is on the South side of a deep-layer ridge. Overnight we have not seen much change in track and the models are in tight agreement. The consensus is that conditions are excellent for Dean to strengthen. In the past, the most major and destructive hurricanes have in common that they were Cape Verde Hurricanes.

So, with model guidance in agreement the best way to observe the storm is to go and have a look at it and take readings inside of it to confirm the size, the size of the eye which is forming now, the winds, the eyewall, temperatures and speed. The hurricane hunters are on their way to do this investigation.

[DanaP]

Originally Posted by Chris

Excepting that when the 4 feet of snow comes,you could huddle in your house and eventually dig out. With a catastrophic hurricane, it takes you and your house away with it in many pieces. (Not that I know much about snow .. does it snow 4 feet in one day?)

You're right Chris, the level of devastation and personal risk are probably much higher with a hurricane. 4 feet of snow in one lump would be a lot, but those big storms can drop a significant amount of snow which can knock out power. So then when you're huddled in your house you could potentially have no power & thus no heat (and it gets dam cold up here!) or water and no way to get out.....it really stinks & is risky for those who can't weather such conditions (pun intended ) easily.

That being said, we regularly have winter weather here with wind gusts of 35-50 or 60 mph. So is the projected wind of 20 mph in PC really that risky? I presume that the stronger winds out at sea could still bring some potentially dangerous surf & maybe flying in such conditions is out of the question.

Thanks for all your work keeping everyone updated & stay safe!

d

[Chris]

Originally Posted by DanaP

That being said, we regularly have winter weather here with wind gusts of 35-50 or 60 mph. So is the projected wind of 20 mph in PC really that risky?

Not it really is not and it is good sailing weather. As DrChrisHE said, he will be in the surf.

The risk is in the unpredictability of storms like these. We don't know the storm track for sure, we can just put a track together using a whole slew of modelling software with a vast number of variables - best case so to speak. Should one or a few of the variables shift, the picture changes. Through the years we've learnt that these storms are highly unpredictable and the long time hurricane area residents are never complacent. Storm winds drop dramatically with distance from the storm and quadrant that passes by, so the actual position becomes very critical. Actual position is modelled, it is not a fact until the storm passes. Should it move just a little closer, like a 100 miles or so, the consequences can be devastating. (Don't know if you followed the Katrina disaster closely, but the disaster would have been much greater for 20 miles or so to the left....)

[Janey911]

Good day,

i'm flying into Punta Cana Friday morning (tomorrow) .. considering the following hurricane tracking, would it be dangerous to travel to Punta Cana at this time?

If the hurricane does manage to devastate Punta Cana in any way, how long does the dangerous weather last?

[Hillbilly]

Yeah! Then we'd have NEW New Orleans!!!!

Keep watch, and don't be stupid and go out in a sailboat tomorrow or Saturday. Rogue waves and strong winds can ruin a nice day..

HB