Hurricane Dean

[Chris]

NRL and other agencies have decided to upgrade Tropical Depression 4 to Tropical Storm Dean.

[Chris]

The data indicates that the depression has reached tropical storm status. And now that a visible center is forming, it is further to the West than what could previously be seen, so, the track has shifted. The cyclone is still in an area of easterly wind shear. This wind shear will be reducing as the cyclone makes its way further westwards - the expectation being that the storm will increase in strength and intensity as the wind shear decreases. The expectation is that Dean will be close to the Lesser Antilles in 5 days.

Note, that for us, the forecast is still too far out to make any reasonable judgements. During hurricane season, 5 days seem to be the furthest out that one can actually forecast. So, we're still very unsure which direction Dean will take in relation to our island.

Currently, as is usual, the storm is moving Westwards at around 21 miles per hour. In the short term (2 or 3 days), this heading will continue. After that, the heading and forecast becomes highly uncertain as the models are not in good agreement. In about another 2 or 3 days, we will get more certainty as to what Dean wants to do.

A tropical storm is not a hurricane yet. But, by the time Dean makes its run across the ocean, it should be classified as a hurricane. The strength is uncertain.

[Chris]

A short explanation to answer some questions:

The cone of probability is the white and the white speckled areas in the image. This is the way that Noaa indicates where they think a storm is going to go - and is is a probability based on guidance from models - it is not a fact, as it has not happened yet.

The white area is the potential area that the storm may influence for the next three days. The speckled white area is the probable area of influence for the 4th and 5th day.

The probable track is the black line in the middle. The black dots on the black line indicate whether it is a storm, or a hurricane. The S is for tropical storm, the H is for hurricane. This is all projected and not real yet.

Example



Please again note that we are working with probabilities and potentials. Tropical storms and hurricanes are fickle. They sometimes go where we do not expect them to go. All you can do is to wait and see and if you fall within the cone of probability, to make sure that your hurricane plan is thought through and you can action it quickly.

Should the storm get closer to us, and it is early days yet ... we will post probable wind fields and probable storm surges.

[Chris]

And now that everyone has adjusted their position more westwards .. things look completely different.

FLHurricane.com: Skeetobite Model Animation

[Hillbilly]

NHC is the "best "for us. All the rest seem to predict some rains and maybe important winds.. BUT, it is way to far out there to start carving this in stone...

HB

[Chris]

Hillbilly is right. This storm is 5 days out from the Dominican Republic, that is if it does not change its mind. Suffice to say that I've seen more storms change their minds, than what I've seen storms stick to their initial track. There will be many shifts of track in the next 5 days and of course, shifts of cone of probability. So, give me a break here already and stop those panic pm's already please ... I'm busy! You'll know everything I know just as quick as I know it ...

Anyway, we're in a waiting period. This is still not a hurricane but will probably become one in the next few days. There is a slight North Westerly nudge in the latest raw numbers but the official guidance sticks to a Westerly track. The storm is currently being buffeted by NorthEasterly winds and has not organized itself any better today. It is making its way across the ocean at a little slower speed. So, in the next day or so when it reaches warmer waters and gets out of the wind shear environment, it should probably declare what it wants to be, and how strong. Soon after, about 3 days out from now, we will have a better idea as to eventual track. (Don't panic! - you'll have sufficient time to make decisions - Its easy to run from a hurricane in the DR .. you just head inland for a number of hours - find a hotel and wait it out)

The current track puts Dean around 120 miles South of Santo Domingo in 5 days, on Sunday, as a Cat 3 storm. This has at least a 300 - 400 miles margin of error.

[Chris]

OK, this is what we have for the official track



and this is what we have for latest model guidance


Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University

Here are the highlights ...

-The center is well developed with well defined circulation and 50 to 55 miles per hour winds.
-The center is again slightly north of previous estimates.
-Motion is still West but a little further nudge to West-NorthWestwards is expected as the storm is holding just south of a ridge.
-The storm has slowed down but the models are struggling to agree on the speed of the storm. Official estimates now at 16 miles per hour.
-Easterly shear is beginning to decrease and the environment (sea surface temperatures and winds) is becoming favorable for development of strength.
-The available intensity guidance is bringing Dean to a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours.
-By day five from now, Dean is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane, i.e, minimum cat 3.

As you can see, we're still interpreting data, things are still not fully clear, and for us, the picture has not yet fully formed. It is still an open game and when the storm is closer, we can predict wind fields and make a call as to which area of the DR will be affected and how. South Coast and Punta Cana should be on high alert by now and ready to evacuate if necessary. Pedernales, Barahona, I'd be wide awake if I were in your area. And Haiti, poor Haiti, is anyone awake out there? Anyway, it is still a waiting game.

With the current information that we have, taking into account still a 300% possible error, the storm will be approximately 120 miles South of Santo Domingo late afternoon on Sunday. If this holds true, with the current wind field, the South Coast will experience high storm surge, high tides and winds of only 40 to 45 miles per hour. (A stiff gale and much rain.)

And, to close, I fully expect this to change in the next few days.
Good night!

[Chris]

And this morning it looks a little better as to track. Still south of the DR but shifted further south.

Tropical Storm DEAN

[Chris]

Here is the current track also showing tropical depression 5 in the Gulf



Here is this morning's model guidance



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Today and tomorrow we hang loose and wait to see how big this storms wants to be.

[Hillbilly]

Be interesting to see just who is "righter" on this track....UKMET is further south and NHC is further north....hummmmm

So, who knows what? Or, who knows jack?

HB

Oh yeah, one of my boys is getting married Sat up in the Jamao area, near Cafeto!! And he wants me to wear a suit!! Yeah, right!!! Rain gear more likely!!