Subtropical Storm OLGA was Late Season Tropical Depression 94

[Hillbilly]

These last two posts are my points exactly.
And I know Luis Arthur quite well....
Anything else is "spin" ....

No excuse.

HB

[SantiagoDR]

"We knew the damage we were going to cause below. We did not want to, but we had to," Rodriguez told The Associated Press. In light of the potential catastrophe of a dam collapse, he called the resulting death toll "acceptable."

¿Has the Dominican Republic entered the World record books as being the first to apply this logic in peace time?

Perhaps with proper management and control there would never had been,
the potential catastrophe of a dam collapse.

Was it greed?

Did no one wanted to risk the dam being below the level for full hydroelectric output?

- - - - - - - - -

We are still without power and water here (Alto Reparto Peralta) for about 36 hours now. I will attempt to get in town to stock up on food and other supplies. If the local gas station has no power there will be no gasoline or diesel for the generator. We are located up the hill on a dirt road, with just normal rain it is sometimes hard to get in and out of the place.

We just got back to the DR late Saturday night, so never got the chance to fully restock the house supplies.

[kirkland1222]

Anybody know if the rio boba flooded juncal near nagua?

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by SantiagoDR

Perhaps with proper management and control there would never had been,
the potential catastrophe of a dam collapse.

Was it greed?

Did no one wanted to risk the dam being below the level for full hydroelectric output?

That is THE question we should keep asking. According to the ex-director of Empresa Hidroeléctrica Dominicana, Máximo D’oleo, they should have started controlled release on Sunday. He says that larger amounts of water have been managed in the past without causing this sort of devastation. Interesting article:
Experto hidroeléctrico cree manejo inadecuado* presa de Tavera provocó gran inundación en Santiago

Originally Posted by kirkland1222

Anybody know if the rio boba flooded juncal near nagua?

Don't know about Juncal but the Boba did flood & there are reports of devastation in Nagua similar to 1979 Hurricanes David & Frederick.
http://www.elcaribecdn.com/articulo_...05E&Seccion=63

Originally Posted by Hillbilly

These last two posts are my points exactly.
And I know Luis Arthur quite well....
Anything else is "spin" ....

No excuse.

HB

And here is the spin from INDRHI's own website.
Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidráulicos -INDRHI-

They're saying they started water release on Monday. Up to 11pm Tuesday everything was normal but by 3am Wednesday the water level in the dam was 10 centimetres above maximum level. So.......they operate above maximum level? But see this bit ' El titular del INDRHI manifestó que afortunadamente, antes de las 9 de la noche del martes el Comité recomendó al Centro de Operaciones de Emergencia (COE) iniciar las evacuaciones de las zonas de influencia del río Yaque del Norte, desde Santiago hasta la Línea Noroeste.'
Rough translation 'Luckily ( ) the committee recommended the COE to start evacuations before 9pm'.
So why would they do this if everything was 'normal' up to 11pm? H'mmm?

[Dolores]

Originally Posted by old_conejo

Hi: I am sorry to hear about all this devastation....

I hate to ask at such a time when people are trying to get their lives back together but my wife and I are flying in to Punta Cana on Friday...can anyone tell me how bad or spared is the area...the beach...the roads.

We will be driving from Punta Cana to Puerto Plata on Monday...I know that before the devastation there was a great road but what about now?

Thanks and again I don't want to antagonize anyone.

Take the main road, the one that goes through Navarette. It should be clear driving.

[kirkland1222]

Thanks for the link Lambada

[carynf]

I am so sorry to be reading about the devastation in the Santiago area, and that your government is as crazy as mine (I am sure I have heard those very words ("acceptable...") from our fearful leader as well....

I too feel badly to ask the situation in terms of my vacation, while you are in crisis, but I am wondering what to expect in the area around Las Terrenas in the aftermath of the storm, as we are arriving there next tuesday for our winter break.

Also we will be flying into Santo Domingo, and then to El Portillo (flying, not driving).
Anything we can bring to help out?

[Dag]

The 'maximum' level of 327.5 msnm INDRHI refers to is the maximum only for hydroelectric generation. Recommended structural maximum water level as per the CDE is 329.8 msnm. Actual top of the structure is 332.5 msnm but the water shouldn't get that high.

Presa de Bao, which is interconnected directly with the Presa de Tavera, was not built with a traditional discharge but was built with a fusible dike section. Should water levels rise to the point were the dam structures of the system (Tavera/Bao) are threatened, the fusible section should blow out releasing large quantities of water in a more controlled fashion than a catastrophic failure (if you believe the engineers). The potential for catastrophic failure of the dam was overstated.

INDRHI states peak inflow of 5300 m3/sec over 7 hours to the Presa de Tavera. Flood flows in rivers peak to a sharp point rather than a plateau. The gaging system INDRHI has in place in the upper watershed of the presa is not sufficient to make an accurate direct measurement of inflows to the presa so they appear to use their outflows to measure their inflows. This makes using inflows as justification for outflows questionable in the least without further information.

INDRHI stated that the rain event that precipitated this was 'unprecedented' in the history of the country. This is at best malinformed at worst an outright fabrication. INDRHI stated earlier that the quantity of rain that fell was equivalent to one fifth of the annual average and later changed that to read one third of the annual average. The one fifth figure is almost accurate if one is using rainfall averages for Santiago but the water flowing into the Presa de Tavera doesn't come from Santiago, it comes from the mountains where there's quite a bit more rain annually. Again, malinformed at best.

The statement earlier in the thread from Maximo D'Oleo is very correct and doubly so as INDRHI just spent umpteen million dollars to supposedly put in place a system to allow the important operations of the presas to be conducted from the main office in the capitol rather than relying entirely on the damkeepers.

Someone was asleep at the wheel and when they woke, hit the panic button opening all six gates full on. Pretty much the same thing that happened with the Presa de Sabaneta during Hurricane Georges. Look for much duck and cover in the coming weeks.

[Chip]

Originally Posted by Dag

INDRHI states peak inflow of 5300 m3/sec over 7 hours to the Presa de Tavera. Flood flows in rivers peak to a sharp point rather than a plateau. The gaging system INDRHI has in place in the upper watershed of the presa is not sufficient to make an accurate direct measurement of inflows to the presa so they appear to use their outflows to measure their inflows. This makes using inflows as justification for outflows questionable in the least without further information.

As a civil engineer with many years experience modeling the hydraulics of pond/retaining structures, this is a valid method of inferring the inflows based on outflow - ie. as long as the gates aren't opened during the analysis, 100% of the time the outflow will be less than the inflow. This is because of the effect of the available storage of the retaining structure. Therefore in this case, if they measured an outflow at +5000 cms without any recent opening of the gates then the inflow would have to be considerably greater. Also, the statement that there is generally greater rainfall in the watershed basins of the referenced resevoirs as opposed to Santiago only helps there case that a record "event" of rainfall happened.

Nonetheless, I'm interested in the information you have provided. Do you mind explaining how you got this and what your background is?

Thanks

Chip

[Chirimoya]

Mr C has just got back from visiting affected areas in Santiago and is convinced that the death toll is much higher than the official figures are suggesting. If I have access to any of his photos I will post a link here.