Subtropical Storm OLGA was Late Season Tropical Depression 94

[Chris]

First post by A.Hidalgo

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000
WONT41 KNHC 092158
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO
SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

bolding by me

[Chris]

Originally Posted by A.Hidalgo


I hope the Dominican authorities are listening.....

[Chris]

Originally posted by Lambada

They are. ONAMET is the DR's Met Office & they alerted the media several hours ago - thus my comment about it being a Sunday (last time over Noel the Jefa said she didn't work on Sundays)
http://www.elcaribecdn.com/articulo_...A44&Seccion=63

ONAMET website & alert here:
Onamet - Oficina Nacional de Meteorología - República Dominicana

Forgot to add this one:
CNE advierte se incrementarán lluvias; sistema de baja presión se aproxima al paÃ*s

[Chris]

A tropical storm may well develop from 94 which is a surface trough and currently around 550 miles NorthNorthEast of Puerto Rico. It is motoring fast, 15 - 20 miles per hour to the West. For this time in December it is way outside the usual envelope.

We still have conditions (sea surface temperatures, upper level environment and winds) favorable enough to support a tropical storm but the changes for development are low. Let's watch it anyway, even just for potential rainfall.

[Chris]

Noaa is saying that there still is a possibility of a tropical cyclone forming in the next 24 hours although the surface conditions are not very favorable. The system is moving Westward at around 20 miles per hour and is now 250 miles East of Puerto Rico. It looks like rain and showers well to the North of where we think this system is. So, be aware that you may have to deal with gusty winds and heavy rainbands/squalls tonight and tomorrow over the North East and South Coasts.

[Chris]

We're getting the same warning pattern from the NHC than with Tropical Storm Noel.
"Heavy squalls and gusty winds of near gale force... "
"Heavy rains over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides".

So, better be on the lookout from this evening onwards and do any basic preparation that you need to do, now! The strongest thunderstorms are on the North and Northeast side of the center of the system which again indicates a 'long tail'. It is still called an 'area of low pressure' and there are no indications from the official met offices in terms of how much rain the system contains.

Yes, formal hurricane season is over but last I checked, the weather does not obey the calender. Differences between this system and Noel, is that this one is moving fast, so far.

If all goes well, these images will auto-update.

Caribbean Visible Satellite Image



Infrared



Water Vapor Image

[Chris]

Apologies to the posters in this thread. I wanted to split it off from Hurricane Season 2007 but lost some posts. I put it together again as best I could. Please feel free to post your comment if I did not include it.

[Chris]

A tropical cyclone could form at any time during the next 24 hours, but this is not certain. However ..

regardless of whether this low pressure develops further, the expectation is for near gale force winds and heavy rains over Hispaniola as the system moves Westward or West-Southwestward at 15 to 20 miles per hour.

We could again see conditions of flash floods, flooding and mudslides.

[Chris]

Here you can see the rain and in which areas of the storm most rain is. Apologies for the large images. I'll resize them in the next while.

[whirleybird]

We have just had some more very heavy rain here out near Sabaneta with far more wind than normal.... I just pray that it is okay for those in the lower lying areas. I was not here in DR when Noel hit and left her trail of destruction but hope nothing happens to destroy Christmas for people here.