Heads Up - They're organizing early this year

[Chris]

Noaa says that the tropical wave and broad area of low pressure about 1500 miles East of the Southern Windward Islands is showing signs of wanting to organize itself. The expectation is that this one will be an early tropical depression as it moves westward.

[cobraboy]

Well, we ARE 1.5 months into The Season...

[Chris]

We've had Bertha drifting around out in the Atlantic for so long now that it is almost a relief to see that Bermuda is now under a hurricane watch and therefore and end is in sight. Bertha has lost most of her teeth however with the days whirling about over open and colder ocean, so Bermuda should come through this fine.

94L, The tropical wave that seems to be wanting to organize out there in the Atlantic early in its life and relatively early in the season, bears a little watching now. It is becoming a candidate for a tropical depression and further development will make it into a storm. This may be the first storm of the season that will reach the Caribbean Basin. I never trust them if they declare themselves so early

Just a general comment .. I've been having a sense that over the world natural disasters are beginning to become more frequent but then doubted myself .. thinking that it may only be better reporting or that I may be more vigilant and noticing more. But now a Reuters report caught my attention this morning reporting this self-same thing. Natural disasters are becoming more frequent. Oxfam said in 2007 that natural disasters quadrupled over the past 20 years.

There still is no definitive link between increase in hurricane activity and climate change but many scientists are looking into this thing to figure out what the real story is.

[Hillbilly]

thanks Chris, good to see you are still on this ...miss you,

HB

[Chris]

Oh that's nice! A thanks from one of my most favorite people! and he keeps me on my toes as well!

[mike444]

i am planning on going to Punta Cana middle of september for a week....should I postpone it and not buy my ticket and wait until march instead....because of the weather risks...

thanks...

[Chris]

No, for sure I would not change travel plans. If one area is hit by a storm, you can always move to another area.

The low pressure 94L that we've been watching has organized itself better overnight and after entering the caribbean basin. A tropical storm could form at any time as the system moves toward the West at 20 miles per hour. This system is now just to the Northwest of Aruba.

Here is the satellite view Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

This is what the basin looks like currently:
(courtesy of Central Florida Hurricane Center)

[Marilyn]

Wow, 94L looks pretty scary, especially after the experience we had with Noel and Olga. Do you think there's any possibility it will move north and be on our midst sometime this weekend?

[Chris]

No, don't think of 'scary' yet ... it is too early in the season for that Most of the convection or water in this system is North of it. Somehow the system is persisting (the low) but the convection is iffy, so, we need to see both develop before we can even think of 'scary' . Just be aware of this system for the next day or so.

More seriously, it is because of last season's experiences and the tremendous amounts of rain that I'm doing a heads-up here. As we learnt yet again, even a tropical storm that does not make it fully to our shores can create extensive damage.

A good wakeup call to complete any hurricane preparedness actions that are not complete if you are on or near the coast. For example, cleaning up the garden and removing anything that could become a 'projectile' in a storm.

[Chris]

Mike, mid-September is the middle of hurricane season. This has never stopped me from going anywhere as the probability of a storm exactly where you are is extremely small. It is however the height of hurricane season.

While Dolly and Christobal passed us by, there is talk of a strong, vigorous and well defined tropical wave coming off of Western Africa. This system will become a tropical cyclone quickly and depending where it heads to, we may have to keep vigilant toward the end of next week.

The season has truly become busy very fast and on both sides of the thin landmass that separates the Caribbean Sea from the Pacific Ocean, all things 'weather' are really busy.