One, Two, Three Strikes?

[CFA123]

Too early to tell, but my aren't they're lining up nicely as of Sunday evening...

[Chris]

Yes indeed .. generally here as we are heading to middle of August, weather activity in our 'hurricane catchment area' is certainly picking up and the tropical waves are of a quality to develop the models fairly consistently. We should be seeing more of the pattern that CFA123 posted and stronger and quicker developing tropical waves. We're also seeing a fast rising NAO.

Things change quickly however and there are only 2 waves in the basin at the moment.

The area about 850 miles east of the windward islands look fairly calm this morning but it looks the best placed at the moment to develop further tropical storm characteristics.

So, by now I trust everyone has a hurricane preparedness plan in place??

[jalencastro]

damn it i DONT....and i am headed there at the end of this month! :O

[Chris]

The two systems out in the Atlantic both look as if they want to develop but both still need to pass an area of wind shear. So, we're watching both, but understand that there is still a long way to go for a tropical wave to become anything more than a wave.

We have an area of showers and thunderstorms developing in the Caribbean sea, southwest of the Dominican Republic. So far I cannot see that this system would influence us more than just a passing cloud perhaps carrying a few passing raindrops, but we are watching to see what it does.

[CFA123]

Still not out of the woods with this low pressure system as of Wed night.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Most recent projected paths put it passing over or just north of hispaniola. The big question remains how strong it will be at that time. Forecasters still don't seem to be in agreement. Hopefully it brings nothing more than a little rain and some cooler weather. But, worth keeping an eye on possible development.

Latest tracks available at Tropical Weather... Done Better!™

[Chris]

We call this wave watching and we're way out of the woods as no-one has defined the woods or the trees yet. There are two or three waves generally at any one time during season in our hurricane 'catchment' area. Everything passes North or South of Hispaniola.

This wave, 92L continues to move generally west northwest and is disorganized. There is a lot of wind shear in that part of the ocean. It may develop further but more likely it will not. The models develop it, therefore we watch it. There is nothing yet on my personal radar that brings on the goose bumps

[quaqualita]

sorry to disagree, but shear is basically none existent right now and will stay very low in the next days. The tropical low is over very warm waters now, convection is developing with increased inflow. If you check on storm forums all pro mets and computer models agree now that this is a developing system, and in such a now very favourable enviroment it might develop fast.
Track guidance is also now getting to the agreement that the system will be along or very near the north coast on Friday / Saturday as the ridge is very strong and won't let the system turn to the north much - not much time to prepare IF this system will strenghten fast.
I understand the 'do-not-scare-the-tourists' attitude, but denying a possible threat of a storm in just 2 or 3 days by posting incorrect information is just wrong IMO.


Code:
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL922008 08/14/08 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 3 2 3 9 4 8 6 8 12 9 9
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6

[mike l]

Without all of the technical knowledge, for the past 30 years I have noticed most of these storms and or hurricanes seem to rotate clockwise with a NNE spin.

Like the updates however....and yes Chris your phone is bigger than mine so keep us posted!

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by Chris

There is a lot of wind shear in that part of the ocean.

Maybe not any more. From 0000 UTC 08/14/2008 Detailed Atlantic Outlook 'Shear is currently low over the system but some dry air at some distance from the convectively active region can still damp intensification'
Tropical Outlooks

If it develops it could be soggy Saturday on the north coast.

[mike l]

Originally Posted by Lambada

Maybe not any more. From 0000 UTC 08/14/2008 Detailed Atlantic Outlook 'Shear is currently low over the system but some dry air at some distance from the convectively active region can still damp intensification'
Tropical Outlooks

If it develops it could be soggy Saturday on the north coast.

Now I can sleep In comfort,

That's all.....Meryl is a great actress!