Tropical Storm Fay ... was ... Tropical Weather Disturbance

Chris · #1 08-14-2008, 11:38 PM

A Tropical Weather Disturbance is approaching Hispaniola and should be affecting the North Coast of the Island from tomorrow mid-morning onwards. This system seems to be made up of strong winds and rains, but a recon flight from Noaa and the NHC today did not find any evidence of anything more than winds and rain. In the parlance of weather folks, this is not a tropical depression yet.

Last season we saw systems such as this stalling out on our doorstep and causing tremendous damage as well as loss of life. Most long-term residents would simply go on with their lives but have good hurricane preparedness plans in place ... Good enough to be carried out in three to six hours at this stage of the hurricane season.

So, be aware that we could see rains and winds on the North Coast at the least, or at the most heavy rains and winds, causing mud slides and floods. Also be aware that this system could develop into a stronger storm overnight.

Chris · #2 08-15-2008, 12:18 AM

More information from the recon flights over this system today ... the data does not find a low level circulation at flight level (these folks fly pretty low..) and because of that, they could not upgrade the system to a tropical depression. Right now in the leewards they are experiencing scattered moderate rains and winds, to isolated strong rains and winds. This system could develop a little more before it gets to the DR but at its current pace it looks like we will see rains and winds on the north coast .. and in spots, heavy rains and winds.

Again, this system could develop and become stronger at any time. The Turks and Caicos and especially the Bahamas should be on the lookout.

Chris · #3 08-15-2008, 08:37 AM

This system, now over the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico is continuing to move Westward at around 15 miles per hour. There does not appear to be a defined circulation on the surface, so we certainly do not have a tropical depression yet, although on the upper levels the system seems prime for development and looks impressive on the pics. This system could develop at any time. The timeline however is getting short for any further significant development before this system reaches our shores.

The system contains a small area of concentrated thunderstorms and gusty winds. A possible investigation by a recon aircraft will tell us more later in the day.

A 2nd low associated with a tropical wave is around 850 miles East of the Lesser Antilles.

Chris · #4 08-15-2008, 08:53 AM

Thunderstorm intensity seem to have increased but there is no low level circulation yet. The system 92L will start to be influenced by the High Land Mass of Hispaniola, so it is anyone's guess as to how and where a low level circulation will form. The formation of a low level circulation will definitively tell us that we have a tropical depression.

The normal cautions of tropical storms in Hispaniola should apply ... caution about floods, flash floods and mudslides. If you have not done any hurricane preparedness, it would be a good idea to tend to this very necessary chore now. 2008 - Hurricane Preparedness

Hillbilly · #5 08-15-2008, 10:18 AM

Thanks Chris, great stuff. Today's papers (Diario Libre) talk about a disturbance 1600 kms away....

HB

reese_in_va · #6 08-15-2008, 10:32 AM

Thank you Chris for all the updates.
Earlier this a.m. we experienced a powerful electrical storm, with much downpour, it moved directly over us (on the mountian behind POP). Thought for a moment that this tropical disturbance had finally come upon us. Looks like we will have to wait a few hours for the real deal. Thanks again.

Matilda · #7 08-15-2008, 10:36 AM

Heavy rain, overcast and lots of thunder in Juan Dolio. No wind though.

Matilda

STIOP · #8 08-15-2008, 12:15 PM

Hey guys.....

At STI airport we are already preparing for heavy rains and winds just in case.....

The disturbance Hillbilly refers to is in my opinion going to become a hurricane way before it gets to the lesser antilles......... i believe it is called invest 93L and the one affecting us right now is invest 92L probably being upgraded to tropical depression very soon by the looks of it....

Muchos Saludos DR1'ers

STIOP

Peter & Alex · #9 08-15-2008, 12:20 PM

Rain at 5.00am this morning for half an hour.
Weather cleared a bit by 06.30am with some blue sky patches.
Wind shifted to blow from the west along Cabarete Bay at 8.00am
Heavy rain in bursts from 09.00am to 10.15am.
11.19am now - dull & overcast but no wind to speak of.
Looks like a wet Presidente Beach Party this weekend.
Hi Chris - just lurking in the background!

Peter & Alex · #10 08-15-2008, 12:50 PM

11.50am heavy rain showers - light winds