Tropical Waves and Areas of Investigation

[Matilda]

Hey Chris, while I agree with you about scare mongering, and as you should know I just don't do that, I believe in being aware. Where i live I have upwards of 2000 people living in huts who need to know if a hurricane is coming so they can take shelter to save lives. They have no concrete houses to go in. As far as I was aware during Fay it was not Fay it was just a wave. Luckily, I checked on storm carib and they have a useful tool about when it would arrive. I checked at 5.30 ish I think and by then it was a tropical storm and it arrived here at 6. I had 30 minutes to prepare. It is not a night I want to go through again. I have only been here 8 years and have not yet seen a major hurricane, but I do want to be prepared. Of course I look at all the sites but not all day long as I have lots of work to do, but if I see something that I think warrants reporting then I would normally report it. You are right that the next two waves look like they will cause us no problems, but I do not think that those who do not check daily should get complacent and stop checking. You and I both know that September and October are the worst times. And I would not discount any site. We all have our favourites and I think DR1 and should continue to advise people to be aware at this time of year. And I know many people are grateful because you do that. So to be clear you are saying that if I see something on whatever website that I think residents should know I am not allowed to tell them????

Matilda

[whirleybird]

Originally Posted by Lambada

OK your wish is my command, if that is geared to me. If I see anything which might interest a resident as opposed to a tourist, I'll send a private email to Matilda if it is more south than north. OK with you Matilda?

And if it is more North than South, please send one to me.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Matilda

So to be clear you are saying that if I see something on whatever website that I think residents should know I am not allowed to tell them????

Matilda

Of course not Mathilda. But wave watching on the longer term is no fun at all. Tropical waves and Invests are really nothing to talk about unless you're a die hard weather fundi. What I am saying is that there are many tropical waves that wave across us without anything happening. Once something starts developing, of course we should shout it out and very loudly. In fact, I would hope you would open a new thread with capital letters.

I am still hoping that we can talk hurricanes without the hype here, but if people really want to watch waves, we can always open a wave watching thread and report every one that comes our way on there for those who would like to know. I would not like to open a new thread for every tropical wave that comes our way. It serves no purpose.

In fact, let me change the header here and you all can report all tropical waves right here.

[CFA123]

Originally Posted by Chris

...Tropical waves and Invests are really nothing to talk about...

Unfortunately, sometimes they are
DR1 - Daily News 25 May 2004

Macabre tragedy near Jimani (May 25, 2004)
Torrential rains fell this Sunday across the country caused by the passage of a tropical wave. Hoy newspaper says that 250 individuals are still missing, and 122 are injured. The authorities evacuated 11,975 persons and rescued another 2,600 persons....
The destruction was caused after the region was affected by 247.8mm of heavy rains that fell on Sunday as the product of the large tropical wave.

I don't recall the final #'s dead from that tropical wave, but I believe it went above 1000(?).

You're right Chris, that each little patch of clouds doesn't have to be discussed ad nauseum. I differ from you though in thinking it should be okay on DR1 to draw attention when a wave/depression/storm/hurricane is 5-7 days out and there is some indication it might pass close to Hispaniola.

Thanks for giving us a place to do so without having our hands slapped when we hit the 'enter' key.

[Chris]

I would question DR1's choice of weather words there. A large tropical wave in May? Uhm ...

[Matilda]

Chris you know you do a fab job. And I would be the first to congratulate you. But there is a difference about scaring tourists and saving the houses, businesses and lives of those of us who live here, and that is more important for me, than people who want to know if it will rain when they are on holiday. All I wanted to say its that the next one to look at is not the two which are en route now but look out for the one which is coming after them and I took the information from a reliable site. But as you say no idea if it will be a hurricane or not nor if it is coming here, but I just wanted to say be prepared just in case. And keep watching it which I know you will

[Chris]

You know, some years ago in this forum we started speculating if global warming will affect our weather. I was one of the first to say that there is no hard scientific evidence of that. Then our weather started changing across the world. And we started seeing those systems that are hardly anything but a blip but stall out and rain and rain and rain .. and kinda develop where they stall. Our very fancy predictive tools cannot predict this. They're good at predicting direction and speed, but they are up to 100 miles out in terms of landfall of storms and also they're not very good at predicting the actual conditions on the ground without flying a plane into the system and physically eyeballing it. And even then, conditions up in the air and down on the ground may differ substantially.

And with this as a backdrop, the level of hysteria in the weather circles grew to a deafening din and the favorite filler for just about every tv channel out there, is their own personal weather person pretending that they have a bigger handle on it than others.

So, there are two sides to the coin of storms in the Caribbean. Preparedness and Predictability.

People, we live in the tropics. We live in a hurricane area by choice. There is only so much that the authorities and the weather people can do to predict. There will be surprises ... storms won't land where we think they will. They will be stronger or less strong than we think. It is the nature of nature's game. We cannot tame the weather. We will not always know what is going to happen. Beating up the weather man or the weather service will serve no purpose. We all work with the same data - Noaa provides that. There is no-one else with the resources and the reach and the depth of coverage. We all study the same maps, charts, model run results and ponder the same information. On hardcore weather sites this same information is actively discussed, disagreed with or agreed with.

I wonder how many of us have come to terms with the fact that we live in a hurricane area? I wonder how many of us have really made the necessary preparation. I wonder if you really have 3 to 5 days drinking water on hand? If your garden is free of flying objects? If you know where your safe room is? It is these things that save lives - the preparedness. There is only so much that the predictive abilities of mankind can do. But in terms of preparedness is where our authorities in the DR fall miserably short and the poor folks bear the brunt of this as usual. I've been through a evacuation on the Florida Keys as well as on the barrier islands near Sarasota. This stuff is organized (despite the fiasco and tragic loss of life with Katrina)

The weather person out there who was 50 miles closer predicting the hitspot of a storm this time, would probably be 200 miles out the next time.

So, with all these words, all I am saying is that there is an inordinate focus on predicting the weather, and a very low corresponding activity on the preparedness side. This is the wrong way around.

[CFA123]

Originally Posted by Chris

I would question DR1's choice of weather words there. A large tropical wave in May? Uhm ...

You may have a point there I'm not educated enough to pick that nit with you.

Originally Posted by Chris

So, with all these words, all I am saying is that there is an inordinate focus on predicting the weather, and a very low corresponding activity on the preparedness side. This is the wrong way around.

A good point as many ignore both the need to prepare and to monitor what may be coming one's way. At least a little early warning does motivate some people to do whatever last minute planning they can - no matter how sloppy it may be.


By the way, my dad wants to come down in late September to play golf. Are there any storms we need to worry about? Are any flights going to be cancelled on the 24th?

[quaqualita]

Originally Posted by Chris

I would question DR1's choice of weather words there. A large tropical wave in May? Uhm ...

Nothing wrong with DR1's choice of words. A tropical wave is an extended area of moderately low air pressure, leaning north to south, which move from east to west across the tropics creating areas of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
They are first seen usually in April or May and continue until October or November.
(FAQ : HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND TROPICAL CYCLONES)

[Chris]

I remember the occasion clearly I dropped my head into my arms and sighed ... Really, that was a tropical depression, a low low with much rain.

But really, it is kind nit pickish in a way. Tropical wave, tropical low, tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane cat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... these are simply descriptions of a specific set of weather 'actions' is the best word I can come up with. The descriptions are very poor attempts to categorize something that is almost impossible to put a box around. Again, we live in a hurricane area. Weather and storms are poorly understood by mankind as yet. We have to make our own preparedness plans and be willing to decisively act on them during hurricane season.