Tropical Waves and Areas of Investigation

[Chris]

Thanks quaqualita. So, the storm in question was certainly not a tropical wave by the normal definition. The low was quite deep and certainly not moderate. No, I'm certainly not going to go back to that date and haul out synoptic charts for this debate.

OK, folks, generally enough of the chatting for me tonight. Feel free to talk about tropical waves as much as you like on this thread. When they get near to our basin or receive a name or something, then we will open a separate thread.

Now that the 1994 Jimani flooding is in my head, a reminder that much rain causes flooding in our landscape as well as mudslides and flash floods under certain conditions. This is what caused the loss of life here, the flooding and of course the perpetual problem of poor people living on riverbanks to be near to water.

[barbara.w.]

L94 is now spinning and very likely it'll be a TD soon.
As it's fairly south of us we may get away with much rain only, less in the north where I am.
Guess, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba will be affected much more.

[quaqualita]

From:Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

The models have had a tough time properly handling 94L, due to the fact they have been getting this system entangled with the other disturbance (95L) a few hundred miles to the northeast of Puerto Rico. The latest (2 am EDT Monday) GFDL forecast appears believable--and presents a strong case of deja vu. It's an almost exact repeat of Fay's track. The GFDL predicts 94L will continue to move northwest and hit the Haiti/Dominican Republic region on Tuesday, then get turned to the west by a strengthening ridge of high pressure. The storm will cross over to eastern Cuba on Wednesday, then travel along the length of Cuba through Friday night. On Saturday, the GFDL has 94L popping off the coast of Cuba at the same spot Fay did, then intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane that moves over Key West towards a landfall in Southwest Florida. While it is unlikely that the exact details of this deja vu forecast will come true, it does give one a general idea of the land areas 94L is likely to affect. The Dominican Republic and Haiti can expect 4-8 inches of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday from 94L, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. These rains will cause flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.




000
WTNT32 KNHC 251438
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERN HAITI ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.5 N...70.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Chris]

- Caribbean Sea tropical wave - 79W south of 20N - moving west 10 - 15 knots.

- Caribbean Sea tropical wave - 64W/65W moving west 10 to 15 knots.

- Atlantic Ocean tropical wave along 17N31W moving west 10 to 15 knots.

- Strong showers and thunderstorms looking like a broad low pressure along 21W/22W south of 20N. This would most probably be the next tropical wave.

- The ITCZ (Itch) - 12N17W 8N30W 8N60W with isolated moderate showers south of 11N between 50W and 61W

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Chris

Feel free to talk about tropical waves as much as you like on this thread. When they get near to our basin or receive a name or something, then we will open a separate thread.

Just a reminder to the folks who wanted to discuss tropical waves ..
Tropical Wave