Tropical Waves and Areas of Investigation

[Lambada]

Quite a distance but worth keeping an eye on. 94:
Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

and even further away 95:
Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

The good news is ONAMET has the first one in its sights:
Onamet - Oficina Nacional de Meteorología - República Dominicana

[mike l]

Thanks for the update, as your info is always appreciated.

We are hoping for a sunny weekend as I have to do the BBQ thing with guests flying in to take a look at some real estate.

I have the weather forcast on Sosua Weather Forecasts on Yahoo! Weather

Thanks G

[Lambada]

There was/is considerable divergence about the track of 94L plus the suggestion that those models which predicted it would come to north of DR started from the wrong place!

Currently looking like it will go south of DR but maybe hit south west
Tropical Weather... Done Better!™

It would be sensible for those down south to keep an eye on it. According to Jeff Masters blog 'A track through the Caribbean towards Jamaica currently appears to be the highest probability track to me. Residents of the Lesser Antilles can expect heavy rain and 40 mph wind gusts from 94L when it blows through Saturday and Sunday. Residents of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica should keep a careful eye on this potentially dangerous disturbance.'
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/im...s/storm_94.gif

[Lambada]

COE has issued an alert for Sunday night, if anyone was wondering about the timing:
La República - Hay 15 provincias bajo alerta verde

[Lambada]

Still divergence of views & more changes: 'The GFDL model, which with yesterday's run was developing 94L into a powerful hurricane that threatens Jamaica, is no longer developing the storm. The ECMWF, NOGAPS, and Canadian model all develop 94L. They foresee the system will enter the eastern Caribbean Sunday, jog northwest and affect the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, then develop into a tropical depression by Thursday near the Dominican Republic or eastern Bahama Islands.'
Wunder Blog : Weather Underground

Really good news is that COE have ordered slow release of dam water in certain areas. Lessons from Tavera appear to have been learned
http://www.elcaribecdn.com/articulo_...B6C&Seccion=63

Still worth keeping an eye on the system.

[Chris]

Both 94L and 95L are heading into other directions for now. We're keeping an eye on 94L but it looks too far south of us to turn Northwards now. We may see some squally weather from it as it looks now. It is however early days for any storm system in our weather basin and this is about the time to sit up and take notice. (That is if your hurricane preparedness is up to snuff - if it is not, you need to take steps to become prepared).

[Matilda]

Agree with Chris, This was the commentary on Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands this morning. Looks like the big one is lurking!!!!

Some clouds and a few showers are on tap from 94L but most of the convection is far south with the 1008 mb low at 12.1N 64.6W. Top winds estimated at 25 mph moving WNW. This will probably be a depression by tomorrow morning and Jamaica, Cuba, The Caymans, and even points farther west should keep an active eye on this system. The computer models are all over the place as they usually are with a weak system so don't put too much reliance on them just yet. Moisture ahead of it has replaced, for the most part, dry air and there is no Saharan Dust to speak of. There is a another vigorous wave just in front of it plowing the way, so to speak so rapid development isn't expected. The SHIPS intensity model does bring it to Cat 1 status in 72 hours though.

95L could become a hurricane in the next 3-4 days but at this point, I expect Bermuds to have a better chance of getting in it's way than the eastern US coast. We'll have to check the steering currents down the road but it should not have any effect on the Caribbean.

I mentioned at the end of my previous post an active wave that was within a couple of days exiting the African Coast and it is about to now with a 1008 mb low already in it's midst. This should be labeled 96L over the next 24-48 hours (assuming the wave in front of 94L doesn't inherit it first) and needs to be monitored for potential huge development. SST's (Sea Surface Temperature's) are 83-85 across Hurricane Alley (about 0.7C higher than normal), Saharan Dust, except to the north, is pretty much a non-entity, moisture levels have improved, and wind shear is a modest 5-15 knots.

Matilda

[Chris]

At this stage I want to caution against highly addictive 'wave watching'. It can become lethally addictive as we have 2 to 8 per week during the height of hurricane season. Wave watching can make you too scared to ever set foot outside the house while most tropical waves just wash over without a mention.

Personally I sit up and take notice if a wave develops quickly through the stages while it is outside of our basin and barrels in with a huge potential, or if it starts developing, or stalls with much rain, or it follows a classical development pattern, on entering the Caribbean waters. No, this is by no means foolproof, but it keeps me sane during the height of hurricane season. I always watch a system that developed inside of the Caribbean basin with great trepidation. They don't come along frequently but somehow they have massive damage potential.

A tropical wave is a normal weather phenomenon during this time of the year. It means an area of low pressure. A tropical wave can develop, or it could decide not to develop. During this time of the year, these lows in the weather develop off of the coast of Africa, rides the Atlantic over (hurricane Alley is called the 'Itch') and heads on into the Caribbean sea either developing into tropical storms or hurricanes, or just rides on into the sunset and dissipates.

Noaa signifies watch areas with numbers, hence the numbers like 94L (L for Low pressure) that you've seen around this site lately. So, please don't consider every invest (area of investigation) as a hurricane. The idea here is to sit back, watch and take quick action when required, with a good hurricane preparedness plan in place.

I would ask the long standing members of this site to kindly not report on tropical waves or invests unless there really is something to 'write home' about. That really scares the tourists unnecessarily , most of whom have never heard of an 'invest'.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Matilda

I mentioned at the end of my previous post an active wave that was within a couple of days exiting the African Coast and it is about to now with a 1008 mb low already in it's midst. This should be labeled 96L over the next 24-48 hours (assuming the wave in front of 94L doesn't inherit it first) and needs to be monitored for potential huge development.

This is simply speculation. It may, and then again, or it may not
The real weather man at Storm Carib, the man who we all revered and followed, died a few years ago. The new fellows are doing great, but they speculate a lot. Speculation is good for visitor numbers, which is good for advertising.

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by Chris

I would ask the long standing members of this site to kindly not report on tropical waves or invests unless there really is something to 'write home' about. That really scares the tourists unnecessarily , most of whom have never heard of an 'invest'.

OK your wish is my command, if that is geared to me. If I see anything which might interest a resident as opposed to a tourist, I'll send a private email to Matilda if it is more south than north. OK with you Matilda?