actual Formations and Storms

[MikeFisher]

hi Lambada,
what is shown on your link as 2 is the newest formation named Invest 97L,
right off the African coast, where all those guys and fals get born, but it sure did not have any influence on puerto plata or any other caribbean destin yesterday noon or today or during the next days. it is one of the expected formations i mentioned on several posts during the last days, they start over land over the african continent, cross the african continent from east to west, hit the superhot atlantic waters around the position of the Cap Verde Islands, that change of surrounding conditions, when they leave the landmass and hit over open hot water(dabgerous temps are 26C+, actually we have 28C+there) starts the movement of air, concentration of water/clouds at one spot, moving forward together, always towards the west or WNW. then the conditions the formation faces on it's westaward course towards the eastern caribbean allow or prohibid that the formation grows up in size, starts heavier wind forces, collects more couds(water mass) from smaller surrounding formations, when coming closer to the caribbean(often when entering the caribbean sea) the may get confronted by a cooler air ridge on medium altitude leve, that slows their forward movement down, slower forward movement favors to take more energy over quiet hot Sea water, that's when they switch to TD, TS, Hurricane aso. also the Caribbean Sea, like actually the Gulf of Mexico(at 2 spots, center and northwest) have wide water areas where the temp of the Sea surface is even warmer than the anyways warm caribbean Sea(some /10th of C degrees make a huge dangerous difference), so getting the forward movement slowed down over such areas let them grow up fast and strong.
in case of there overall size(squaremiles of area they are wide) it depends a lot in their position, generally than closer to the equator than smaller their size(smaller does never mean weaker, the windforce has nothing to do with the overall size of the formation), so i.e. a often run path for storms is to cross the caribbean sea east to west and before reaching the Yucatan peninsula they turn northwards, away from the equator when running into the Gulf of Mexico or towards Florida, there they expand their visible size usually significantly.
Gustav is a good example to watch such changes of directions and changes in size.
he hit the Haitian south Peninsula and been forced by NNW conditions to run a straight westcourse from there, he turned nearly 90 degrees from N-course to W course, running straight over Jamaica. most computer models predicted during the last 3-5 days he will go over Cuba and may turn then more westwards running towards the Gulf, after his turn they told he will run into/over Yucatan.
the surrounding conditions there been never to favor such an out of the ordinary way, that's why i prognose since 3 days that he will do his landfall in the US not in Texas or even more weatwards, he will cross the channel between Cuba and Yucatan(or even run over the western piece of Cuba) turning much more northwards(and even NNW possible) and hit somewhere between New Orleans and Alabama/Florida Panhandle. on his way throu the Channel and over the Gulf of Mexico the conditions for a huge ingrease of his forces are perfect for a hindering front over south-US slowing his forward speed down, and the still left hot Ring Current area in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico loading the storm's batteries with all he can take.
i would name it a category 3 at least a few hours before it's US landfall with max rainloads in it.
Mike

[Chris]

Mike, just looking at the size of Hanna. With the south east quadrant carrying such a lot of moisture, I think even with the center 300 miles or so away, the East and the North Coasts will see some of the weather on the fringes of the storm. Hanna is moving North West on a parallel track to the North Coast. The prediction picture is very complex for this storm with the other systems around it.

So, I think the East and North Coasts will have some good waves, rain and cloudy weather on the weekend. After the weekend Hanna is predicted to turn 90 degrees and move southwest toward Cuba. This will cause the center of the storm to pass about 200 miles off-shore from Monte Cristi and the north west corner of the DR.

[MikeFisher]

hi Chris,
sorry for that delay,
it's weekend,
no real danger in sight, been on the street to get my weekly pack of german sausages fro the fridge,lol.
we got some smooth clouds mooving in around 3PM , mid afternoon, i think the north part(Uvero Alto) may even got a few minutes of rain, still all quiet,sea flat, but those flat conditions are anyways very far below an august average, 5ft waves and 8-10nots winds now end of the month would be a usual day, mostly sunny, partly cloudy. what we have on the east this afternoon is in case of clouds bands left from what Gustav through over the island, Hanna's influence is still that we are super calm and super flat. maybe we get some clouds from Hanna sunday afternoon on the east coast, i don' expect real rain(not talking about the occassional and real needed short 10-20 minutes showers or some nighttime rain).
in case of waves i expect that after Hanna passed, there we may get some swells in the channel, but 5-8ft shuld be a max, and that's for august/september just average. most augusts and more in september we have to stop fishing twice a month for 2-4 days each time due to rough conditions without a storm nearby, 2 more days close to the actual situation and i would name the ending month a record softy, we did not fish during rainy and windy friday when Fay passed by, i changed my charters from tuesday to thursday(yesterday) this week because i expected effects from Gustav, they did not happen, we had clouds around, zero winds, Sea flat, but just in case it been better that way of course.
for the north coast the real effect depends at which point the storm turns South west, to turn southwards is a rare occassion, i still don't believe those computer models calling him on a real turn SSW straight on the Bahamas, i expect him to lower his northward movement and go more west passing them very close with rain and some winds. actually i would not be worried about the north coast in case of danger, clouds and rain and tough offshore sea conditions yes, but a danger not.
Hanna's size may bring more cloudy time than expected with also more rain, but for the east i would be very surprised to see real rain forced by Hanna.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

hopefully the New Orleans area started their evacuation on time,
such a huge area will take more than 2 days to bring everybody out there, if possible.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

good for all the neighbours on the island's north,
Hanna switched back from the straight western course to WNW,
than more north than less 'joder'.
the biggest system of the til now 2008 season is by far Invest 97L over the Cap Verde Islands actually.
it started to grow at the moment it left the african continent and is actually absorbing it's cloudy/water carrying surroundings in a 'all for me' and very fast way. conditions to the systems west show perfect conditions for a fast and big growing (thanks god we have a huge amount of dry air in the air for the next 5-7 days over the caribbean sea drifting NE towards that path).
it is the by far 'hugest' looking, we hsould track that steadily during the beginning of next week.
the pos on it is also that it's originally straight western course is drifting to a WNW path, that would bring it even more north of the island than Hanna is, but it will be much wider in case it makes it's way on our side of the Atlantic.
all the best to western Cuba now and the US Gulf coast monday night, it does not matter much where Gustav hits, he will hit fatal, Cat 4 now with tops of 170mphr+, awaited to reach Cat 5 before he leaves the western Cuban landmass, he will not get significantly be slowed down by that Cuban landfall.
Mike

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

the biggest system of the til now 2008 season is by far Invest 97L over the Cap Verde Islands actually. it started to grow at the moment it left the african continent and is actually absorbing it's cloudy/water carrying surroundings in a 'all for me' and very fast way. conditions to the systems west show perfect conditions for a fast and big growing (thanks god we have a huge amount of dry air in the air for the next 5-7 days over the caribbean sea drifting NE towards that path).
it is the by far 'hugest' looking, we hsould track that steadily during the beginning of next week.

Yep I agree with this as one to watch, Mike, which is why I signalled it the night before last

Originally Posted by Lambada

! I think the one I'll next be watching is the one marked 2 on here
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

It covers a huge area AND has plenty of time to strengthen and too far out to give much credibility to tracking so...........we need to watch it! NHC prediction is it will be a TD in a couple of days.
Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

[MikeFisher]

yes Lambada,
the next 2-3 weeks will stay busy like right now or even show a ingrease,
right behind 07 are 2 more formations left over the african continent, movement east to west, they will leave the landmass and start their growing upright away when they hit the hot waters around the Cap Verde islands.
in case of 97L, ys, that looks huge and did just started to grow to something bad.
2 good things on 97L:
it's westward course is shifting more northerly, so it may miss the eastern caribbean.
and we have upcoming dust/sand clouds moving over the caribbean Sea which is in case of the arrival of a storm a blockade and weakener, that blocking specially for the south of our island will hold til mid/end next week, hopefully longer.
Mike

[MikeFisher]

97L did it, and in record time,
TDNINE, shortly afterwards TS Ike,
i bet it is hurricane Ike bevore we finished dinner tomorrow tuesday evening.
watching it's growing and surroundings i name it the by far biggest storm of the til now 2008 season, doesn 't matter where it finally goes, it is the strongest one, reaching full power much more east of us than the others did.
westward conditions will hopefully do their kob and switch it's straight westward course towards the WNW within the next 2 days, so it would miss the northern Antilles far north, but there still the conditions are again similar ones Hanna had on that passage, that would bring it parallel to our northcoast and kick it down SSW somewhere mid hispaniola or over the Bahamas, and the point where such a turn starts and for how many hours it will last is the vital point in case of the north, this one will arrive much wider, much stronger than little Hanna. we have to see how it goes the next 2 days, hopefully it get's a more northern course than predicted and turns in the wide open.
99L is much farer away, same fast growing, much too early to say at which power that one ends, it's location is more south, so from that point of view the usual NNW course would be a way into the caribbean sea, where?, too early, maube it doesn't grow up and never goes nowhere.
happy eve to everybody, and keep the reports about the different areas of the island up.
Mike