Hurricane Ike and Current Tropical Storms .. was .. Hey Chris: They're lining up

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by Lambada

------
Moderator's note added: This aircraft type is only used late in the cycle once a storm threatens the US. For the DR, this does not apply. For general knowledge, you are correct.
------

Thanks so much for adding your Moderator's note to this, Chris. See, this is what got me confused: for Gustav the G-IV was tasked to fly when Gustav was south of DR. So whereas I accept your point that they are used once a storm threatens the US, they can also be tasked when a storm is outside of US waters, it would appear.
'8/27/08: Mission Ready. The GIV has been tasked with a surveillance mission around what is currently TS Gustav. Takeoff is set for Thursday, August 28th at 1330L' Scroll to right here under Gonzo column
2008 Storm Info
This one was cancelled as it so happened, but not because it wasn't in US waters, because they already knew that.............

Thanks also for your note about NOAA flight schedules which I can't find any more - did you take it out??? Or maybe it's my poor eyesight . Anyway, I found the link to it for anyone interested.
Plan of the Day

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

and it still looks all fine.

Thanks for both the 2 pm & the 5pm Mike. Certainly better than the day before yesterday. Interesting to follow the shifts.

Originally Posted by El Tigre

That's for gurus like Mike, Lambada and Chris :-)

Regrettably I'm no guru, El Tigre. I did study meteorology for my pilot's licence, yes, but as anyone who has one knows, that isn't a lot!

Finally, for anyone interested the 5pm discussion - I know the advisories are what usually get people's attention but I like to look at the discussions as well.
Hurricane IKE Forecast Discussion

[CFA123]

Lambada,
US interest in Gustav that early on could have had something to do with proximity to Puerto Rico?

[Lambada]

Could well be - I think it was a Cat1 near Haiti when they called up the aircraft so a bit far from Puerto Rico but who knows...........

[Chris]

Originally Posted by Lambada

Thanks so much for adding your Moderator's note to this, Chris. See, this is what got me confused: for Gustav the G-IV was tasked to fly when Gustav was south of DR.

I can only think it was the US Virgins and Puerto Rico that warranted that kind of attention but I know this aircraft is tasked for mainland US threats. You may ask them however. They may even answer. We actually saw it go by one time last year off the DR south coast .. Arjan took pictures and posted them here.

Yes, I am editing quick and sometimes heavily for language. Initially I answered you fully and thereafter decided that that kind of schedule does not do anything for this thread and is really boring for most of the readership.

Anyway, here is the pertinent piece

A G-IV
MISSION FOR 07/0000Z. NOAA WP-3'S CONTINUE RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO IKE EVERY 12 HRS.

4. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION WITH 04/1730Z T.O.CANCELED.

[moreyl]

Well see....these are not 100% accurate facts, look what happened with Gustav..they thought it was going to be worse than Katrina, but it wasn't as bad. However if it continues as a category 4 hurricane, yes, it will be bad. But houses in the DR are much safer (except for the poor people that live in shacks, of course) than the ones in the states so if you live in a concrete house or a building your only worry would be keeping the water out of your house. So maybe it's a good idea to get enough supplies, batteries and stay calm.

[Chris]

Another boring bit but someone else asked this question on this forum earlier today. Models .. even wondered why the NHC and all the various branches of Noaa involved in weather do not publish a schematic model run. Here is their answer:
"The National Hurricane Center does not generate a graphic of the guidance models it uses to produce its forecasts. Such graphics have the potential to confuse users and to undermine the effectiveness of NHC official tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings. NHC's Tropical Cyclone Discussion product, issued with each advisory package, contains a description of the reasoning behind the official forecast, including discussion of the specific models considered in the preparation of the official forecast."

So, if all the models and pictures bore and confuse you, don´t fret, they´re boring and confusing to most.

There is of course excellent information on the various models here

I have to say each year that I have a lot of respect for Noaa and their various branches. This is probably the only government department ever and anywhere that I really respect.

[J D Sauser]

I think it's a bad idea to go to Las Vegas. Looting can quickly become a problem in such conditions. So, one should rather get organized instead.
Move things in a safe upper room. Keep the car in a safe place and fueled up. If you have a planta (generator) have fuel NOW. Have cash on hand in the house as well as food, drinking water and flashlights and other standalone lighting systems ready.
Keep in mind, most expat's home are CBS construction with a concrete roof, not a feature often found in US residences. Wind will in most cases not be a major issue to such structures, yet, water seems to be the most common problem in this country for the lack of planning and appropriate drainage. If your home is safe, you may want to consider offering shelter to your local friends and employees which may not be as privileged.

Then again, to caution against giving appropriate attention to a storm that size just because the last one did not meet expectation is not real science either. It is really a perfect storm and it has plenty of room to grow if it don't hit us... Florida could be at a much worse risk.

... J-D.

[white light]

I live in a good sound concrete apartment, but I have one window that really catches the breezes. Would it be a good idea to cover it with wood? I would appreciate any ideas.

White light

[MikeFisher]

and it is a US goverment institution,
why should they spend their money, and such operations cost the big bucks,
to investigate weather systems who are not threatening their people?
even that many predicted different, to all directions,
many forcasted very early that Gustav will make his way into the gulf or over florida's keys, they may just have sent their Gulfstream because the right people saw the right threat early.
who knows?
Ike is on it's way,
let's await the Hunters Data tomorrow to get the right idea.
his forward speed is slowing down,
i would like to see him fast with less possibilities to course-changes.
a later southwestwards move would bring him to the Bahamas/north Cuba and closer to Florida, that move earlier would bring our Island under a bunch of rain everywhere. a weakening cat1-2 Ike could get stuck and be a pita$$ with rain all around, a strong cat3-4 could make his way with less influence and may not get pushed towards southwest, run straight westwards Ike and get your northshift before anybody gets hurt/
i am actually just watching and waiting for news mid morning.
he has too many possibilities.
after Ike:
looks like we may get a little rest afterwards,
his girlie Josephine is about to end her life far away from us,
and the lates sat shots from the central and west african coast
show clearer skies with every new pass of the satellites.
we may get lucky to not receive a new formation from right there
for the next week.
hopefully no bad surprises in the morning
MIke

[Chris]

The models have tightened up a bit with the critical factor still the ridging between Hanna and Ike which is causing the upcoming Westerly and then West-Southwesterly move. This move should start being very apparent around 2pm tomorrow if you´re following the track closely. The shift has started and the heading of the storm now is 285 degrees whereas before it was 290 degrees.

Official Track
The model runs are tighter and better agreement is being reached between the different models and the different runs.
If the picture for the next two days stay as is predicted currently, the storm will not pass closer than 200 miles north of Puerto Plata.
However, it will be a category 3 when it passes and this will cause 20 - 30 mile an hour winds and a 12 foot swell.
Today Ike tightened up, losing some outer bands. It is visibly smaller in radius. It is going through a time of increased wind shear. Later on it will encounter colder water churned up by Hanna. But Ike is preparing to strengthen again. So, it will pass the DR during the period of reduced strength if all else remain as is.

The Models
The models and the official track are coming into closer agreement. So, here we will go with the official track with as much confidence as is possible. This is all good however, when there is a hurricane out there, I am never comfortable until it is well past and on its way. Again, these storms are unpredictable and at Category 3, 4 and 5, we do not have much experience with them. So, things can go wrong in a real hurry.

Bits & Pieces
The outer bands of the storm are out about 600 miles and more to the south east. The biggest outflow is to the South East which means again that the storm carries water on the tail end. It is a magnificent formation.
So the eye will be North of Haiti on Sunday and then it is when the south eastern tail will hit the DR.

Josephine is following in Ike´s footsteps but will most likely go out to sea and spin some fish around. This is however by no means a sure thing.

You´re right Mike. Mid morning tomorrow is when the fat lady starts singing for the DR.
The Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas need to rush their preparations to completion.