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09-05-2008, 08:54 AM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,422
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OK, the shift westward as a result of a mid-level ridge directly to the North of Ike has clearly started. Ike is looking a little ragged this morning, while entering into its phase of of weakening. The storm is now heading westward at 270 degrees. There still is great controversy about how long this move to the West will last. For mainland USA it obviously is important to try and figure out the longer term, more than 3 day heading of the storm. So, the guidance that we are getting is slowly focusing on the longer term forecast. For us and the Turks and Caicos of course, the next few days are the ones that count.
Unless something extreme happens, Ike will not kiss our shores and we are outside the cone of probability. Any effects of the hurricane on the DR north coast is unknown as we are still unsure how many miles off shore Ike will pass. Let me go and do the figuring as things stand now and come back and report.  I don´t know if Ike will "stay right on the line" like a good mannered fellow.
Last edited by Chris; 09-05-2008 at 09:29 AM..
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09-05-2008, 09:23 AM
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Bronze
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Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 14
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Chris ~ you are better than the weather channel -- the updates you are giving are much appreciated.
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09-05-2008, 09:27 AM
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Gold
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,318
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Plus they are pretty accurate...as history has shown.....
I think we'll get winds and some rain..not much else,and mostly on the North Shore....
HB
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09-05-2008, 09:30 AM
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Gold
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike l
I love the word Nifty.
If I did not wake up until 2pm on labor day I would have missed the weather report.
I use this yahoo map, as it is so accurate I can almost tell if it's time to go to the beach or the barn.
Sosua Weather Forecasts on Yahoo! Weather |
Interesting...the overall forecast for today in Sosua is "WIDESPREAD DUST"...  That's a new one!
I really like that MSNBC chart...makes the projected paths and "cone of uncertainty" a little easier to visualize.
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09-05-2008, 09:35 AM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 8,422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidZ
I really like that MSNBC chart...makes the projected paths and "cone of uncertainty" a little easier to visualize.
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Yes, its very flash eh! But note that you´re not looking at Ike, but at Josephine?
Uhm just realized what you said. The cone of uncertainty? We usually speak about the ´cone of probability´. This is the most probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. If you make a set of overlapping circles at 12, 24, 36 hours along the probable track, and then keep just the outline of the circles, you get the NHC´s cone of probability. The NHC says: "The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle." This becomes a whole lot more technical and I don´t think for this thread.
Of course this is all information pertinent to possible track. What has been lacking in our experience in the last few years, is a quick visualization of the probable rainloads of a storm and which quadrant carries the most rain.
Thanks for the kind comments all.  And let us spare a thought for our neighbors.
In Haiti BBC NEWS | Americas | UN warns of Haiti flooding crisis
In India http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7599773.stm
Last edited by Chris; 09-05-2008 at 10:24 AM..
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09-05-2008, 10:36 AM
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Bronze
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 17
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Hi Everyone! You always do a great service. I read this for 2 reasons! One, because of my friends in DR. Two, for myself. I live just south of Naples. Hope we all dodge this one, but not looking good for us. Let's have a round of prayers with the Brugal!
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09-05-2008, 10:45 AM
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Gold
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,744
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
Yes, its very flash eh! But note that you´re not looking at Ike, but at Josephine?
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Actually I clicked "more" and checked out the path of IKE.
As for uncertainty vs. probability..it comes from living in South Florida for a number of years..especially in 2004 when we had Jean, Francis, Georges, and Charlie in the span of a few weeks..the newscasters started calling the predicted path "the cone of uncertainty"...
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09-05-2008, 10:53 AM
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Bronze
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 17
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Hey DavidZ... don't the phrases "cone of uncertainty" and "hunker down" make you CRAZY???? That's all we heard then, and will probably be again, by the looks of things.
This site has the best info for all of us as far as I'm concerned!
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09-05-2008, 10:59 AM
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Bronze
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1
(10)
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Live in PC my name is Robert. Nothing drastic here, but keeping eye on Ike
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09-05-2008, 11:15 AM
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Moderator
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 2,023
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What the heck is widespread dust?
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