Hurricane Ike and Current Tropical Storms .. was .. Hey Chris: They're lining up

[dreamsource]

Originally Posted by jalencastro

i am presently in Santo Domingo [in the CASONA DORADA hotel] and its raining HEAVY....my day started in the campos of San Cristobal where rainfall began at around 5am and hasnt stopped or let up since.....this is bumming me out
just checked weather updates and am not liking the outlook....i am trying to leave sunday and i think Ike might ruin that....not sure....

But look on the bright side- you've probably saved some $$ by not needing a rental car or lodging outside Santiago!

See you when you get home,
Ron

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

and leave the highway free for Ike to pass as fast as he can and than more north than better.Mike

Just looked at the model runs & I could swear I saw a move to the left (WSW) for Sat/Sun for Ike & I thought my eyes were deceiving me until I read the 11pm NHC forecast discussion & there it is 'THE RIDGE BECOMES SO STRONG BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT MODELS TURN IKE ON A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.'
Tropical Storm IKE Forecast Discussion

So, still north of DR but less far north than before if NHC is correct .

[Hillbilly]

No rain in Santiago today.

No clear skies.

No classes either. At least for the public schools according to the Min of Ed.inthe 12 areas under Red Alerts. See Diario Libre for latest..Diariolibre.com

HB

[Chris]

These minute shifts of track happens right through the life of a storm. The eventual picture that appears to the public, is a composite made up by the meteorologists according to the statistical and numerical guidance with a healthy dollop of their own experience. With the 5am's, the track is back to West-Northwest and West. The prediction picture for Ike remains very complex and the guidance needs to be read with that complexity in mind. It will count as a radical move if Ike turns it sights onto the DR as the system is already in a 20.6N position. This has been known to happen of course and a few years ago we saw a storm do a complete circle in more or less the same ocean space that Ike is in now.

It is best to wait for a track shift to establish itself unless of course the storm is very close to where you are and minute shifts of track becomes less important because of proximity.

On its current track and taking into account that the current track may have variances of 100 miles or more, the DR could see rain and cloudiness from the outlying cloud bands around Ike. If the storm strengthens, you will feel more effect in the DR. Strengthening does not look feasible in the next two days or so, and then Ike will be gone out of our waters. Barring a complete unforeseen unforeseen event (like turning a circle), Ike should not be too much of a problem for the DR. The track and other guidance for Ike looks as solid as it can be for the next two days. After that, there is great uncertainty. The issue of a complete northward turn is back on the table.

[aegap]

Over twenty life have already been lost as a direct result of Hanna. It's currently moving straight East, which is kind of weird.

[planner]

Originally Posted by Chris

These minute shifts of track happens right through the life of a storm. The eventual picture that appears to the public, is a composite made up by the meteorologists according to the statistical and numerical guidance with a healthy dollop of their own experience. With the 5am's, the track is back to West-Northwest and West. The prediction picture for Ike remains very complex and the guidance needs to be read with that complexity in mind. It will count as a radical move if Ike turns it sights onto the DR as the system is already in a 20.6N position. This has been known to happen of course and a few years ago we saw a storm do a complete circle in more or less the same ocean space that Ike is in now.

It is best to wait for a track shift to establish itself unless of course the storm is very close to where you are and minute shifts of track becomes less important because of proximity.

On its current track and taking into account that the current track may have variances of 100 miles or more, the DR could see rain and cloudiness from the outlying cloud bands around Ike. If the storm strengthens, you will feel more effect in the DR. Strengthening does not look feasible in the next two days or so, and then Ike will be gone out of our waters. Barring a complete unforeseen unforeseen event (like turning a circle), Ike should not be too much of a problem for the DR. The track and other guidance for Ike looks as solid as it can be for the next two days. After that, there is great uncertainty. The issue of a complete northward turn is back on the table.

Ok help me out Chris, I am confused. The models I have looked at don't even show Ike off our north coast until Saturday / Sunday. We are talking 3 to 5 days out. How can it be out of our waters in 2 days?

I have 2 reasons for asking - 1. I want to understand for my weather report and 2. I have parties planned for Sunday - do I postpone or not....?

[DanaP]

It's been raining steadily all night here in Juan Dolio and continues to dump it down. The school is indeed closed. Guess I'll be able to grade those papers and prep in relative peace.......besides the 6 year old of course

[MikeFisher]

the models show Ike to effectstaurday ahead,
at least many models, there are still 5 models who bring him over the weekend to a southern turn towards the northcoast, the very most models show him passing far from the northcoast, only a few let him move out on open atlantic to die there.
there are so many possibilities and we are still a few days away from a possible 'coming closer', we just can watch any move, actually Ike is still on WNW.
Hanna is shown since very early morning on a northcourse, but slow, just 5mphr, she surprised in many points, so we have to wait until she is gone more far.
here on the east we had rain most of the day yesterday, in the afternoon and evening it was heavy, many showers during last night, this morning is til now in Cabeza de Toro where i live dry, but it is still 100% cloudy, wind changes with strong gusts 10-15knots.
our east province declared yellow-flagg, so public schools are closed today, i missed that info myself, so for the pick up van of the private school of our son we waited 30 minutes for nothing this morning, also closed, a neighbours kid been picked up for an other private school.
we sorrily don't get always such notice, but that's not the most important ones neither. while Fay ben on the south i complained that we need water on the east, it has been much too dry for months, now we have more than needed and the river and mountain areas go more dangerous with every additional hour of rain there.
at least this year we can see that authorities evacuate areas in danger, we can not stop the weather, but we can improve our knowledge/behaviors during such times.
let's stay informed and inform each others
Mike

[MikeFisher]

o.k.,
correction of my post a minute ago.
rain is back in fullhere, too, Cabeza de Toro.
Mike

[El Tigre]

I want to be a brujo (a good one) and predict Ike will miss the DR and so will Josephine :-)