Hurricane Ike and Current Tropical Storms .. was .. Hey Chris: They're lining up

[CG-LT]

Originally Posted by horton6966

Hi there i am a new member worried to death about going to the dr on sept 17th 2008,me my wife and kids are due to go to bahia maimon can anybody advise us on the weather at the moment and also any idea of what weather is expected throughout september please?????

Dear Horton,

Our weather now is the remnants of Hanna, she has decided to move on north and it's really too early to say about Ike. tomarow we will all have a better idea. If you research a bit you will find that the season 2008 would be a little busy,,, Your asking for the 17th ??, nobody has a crystal ball,, but as said before, if you go into the archives with-in this forum you will find that your trip will most likely not be affected by a major storm.
Please do not worry to death as it's really not worth it. keep looking and watching and reading to the folks on this site and the weather sites.

If you make it here, have a great time !!

lt

[horton6966]

Thanks for the information i will search the archives and hope that the weather is ok for our trip.

[Chris]

OK, let´s line 'em up one more time ..

- Gustav is Gone.

- Hanna stuck around for days and rained on the parade. The lady is now moving off slowly and the DR will be free of her direct influence in another 12 hours or so. Haiti is not so lucky. Hanna is now expected to head to the Carolinas.

- Ike, like I said before, if I was a poker player, it would be my ace .. No-one really knows .. the prediction picture is very complex with all the other systems around and playing with one another. The voices of reason on this site including myself believe that Ike will move off. The question is how much influence on the DR in the next few days? That remains to be seen.

- Josephine, another.. uhm.. lady, is following closely in Ike´s footsteps just a tad closer to the shores of the DR than Ike. Early days however and we will have to watch and wait.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by El Tigre

I saw the movie. Really scary $hit

Few people really realize that the weather part of the movie was truth and not so much fiction. I agree with you .. I had sailing nightmares for a long time after reading this one.

By the way, any of you watching the Weather Channel or the Local Weather Girl or Boy or reading statistics, when last have we had three active storms in the Caribbean?. I don´t have time to figure the statistics ...

[BushBaby]

I believe it was posted on DR1 just the other day. 1998 & 1999 (see post #4 of this thread as one link to the information!). ~ Grahame.

[Lambada]

As of the 5pm NHC advisory Ike is now a Category 1 hurricane.
Hurricane IKE Public Advisory

Wherever it goes, hurricane winds now extend outward 35 miles & tropical storm winds extend outward 160 miles.
I say 'wherever' because models do vary of course.
Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

If anyone on north coast is still unprepared (!) now would be a good time. Might be a good idea to remove objects which could fly & cause damage in case there are squally gusts.

[El Tigre]

Oh this is horrible news Lambada. Everyone brace yourselfs just in case.

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by El Tigre

Oh this is horrible news Lambada. Everyone brace yourselfs just in case.

It's not that bad, El Tigre. There's a pretty fair chance it's going north of us. We just have to hope by about 170 miles . And even if less, that would only be TS winds, not hurricane force. But you remove flying objects in case of gusts. There will still be rain though.

We just have to hope the GFDL track is wrong - that's the only one which has it slamming into the north coast.

[MikeFisher]

sorry that i missed the afternoon updates,
threads with Chris on are always up to date.
our internet been down 1:30-6PM this afternoon.
after the sun came out around 1PM we had mostly rain again the rest of the day on the east.
Hanna is gone,
and i think that rain been enough everywhere.
Ike is a hurricane, no surprise,
he had been forecasted to be so much earlier than he finally reached the status.
i totally agree with Chris on Ike,
his actual way would bring him far enough north to not get a thing more than wavy offshore Sea even on the northshore.
but the conditions he will finally face when coming closer are not done yet, a big percentage of those conditions depend on the development or destruction of Hanna.
the computer models go in case to all possible directions, from straight NW to open water and to down in the Mona Channel running over PC and making a 2nd landfall in the middle of the southcoast, it depends what actual or in different areas predicted conditions he will find on his way the next 3-4 days. so the models are actually no help, he is a joker hidden somewhere.
the north coast should just stay prepared for an other 5 inches of water over the weekend, specially at the danger areas of rivers and where mountains are weak to cause slides. if Hanna goes on moving on her actual path i would say in 24hrs the models will get a good idea of present surrounding conditions when Ike arrives(where ever that may be in case of distance), so by then the models will come much closer in their predictions and show a much more accurate picture of his way.
somebody asked in a prior post this afternoon about a 'superhit' in case 2 hurricanes come together.
such never happens(happened, yet).
when two hurricane formations close in to each others within less than 1000 miles of distance they start a little 'fight' about their power resources, they do not unite, they take their power from the same sources/water bodies/helping winds, so such a 'monster fight' decreases both, the history never showed any case where 2 storms closed in to each others and increased power as something like one superstorm.
Josephine is by far too far away to say something accurate.
actually on a way where she would follow Ike's path,
but we need at least 5 more days before Josephine will be predictable.
even on a straight western path she could not hit any land in less than a week from now.
hope the connection stays up now.
good eve to all
Mike

[Chris]

El Tigre, although it sounds just so bad, the difference between a tropical storm and a hurricane is only 1 mile an hour wind. Remember, storms are classified into their categories by wind strength. This is of course an easy one to measure. It is harder to measure things like damage potential or amount of rain in a storm. Tropical storms can be as devastating as hurricanes.

But Hillbilly, Mike and I consider that Ike looks like it will pass the DR and Lambada rates it a pretty fair chance. Let us hope that all this combined wisdom does it for the DR as Ike is growing into a major hurricane.