Hurricane Ike and Current Tropical Storms .. was .. Hey Chris: They're lining up

[Hillbilly]

To the Holiday Makers going to Punta Cana: Not to worry....

these things happen all the time, you might get some rain but it will be so beautiful that you won't notice it. And you will get your sunburn, too. Be careful, even on our overcast days the sun will bake you to a crisp..

As for Ike and Josephine and L-11 (whenever it decides to form), don't worry....it can be a crap shoot, but most models put Ike far enough to the north to be mostly out of harm's way, and Jo is supposed to peter out in the Atlantic....

Come and enjoy a wonderful vacation...

HB

[MikeFisher]

yes HB,
as far as for Punta Cana there's actually no kind of danger predicted,
a bit of rain and 5-10 more than the usual september 12-15knots of winds would be a surprising max.
no problem with your flight path for the plane to come into pC on sunday,
the airlines have their routes to pass them on higher elevations or turn around them, such is usual procedere for every pilot, nothing to worry about.
Lambada,
just as an update, because your 'model-map' been from 12:00Zulu time(8AM),
the models including the GDFL been updated 11AM(local) and show also the agressive GDFL model more north on the path. it is the dark blue one on the shot.


Mike

[El Tigre]

I agree with you Mike. I was heading down to Palm Beach in Sep of 99 and we flew right over hurricane Floyd. Pilots have their way of getting around :-)

[Chris]

• Know the storm surge history and elevation of your area, in other words, understand where the water is going to go.
• Know safe routes inland
• Review working condition of emergency equipment, such as flashlights, battery-powered radios, etc.
• Ensure that enough non-perishable food and water supplies are on hand to last for at least 2 weeks.
• Obtain and store materials, such as plywood and plastic, necessary to properly secure your home.
• Keep trees and shrubbery trimmed.
• Review your insurance policy to ensure it provides adequate coverage.
• Gather all important documentation, money etc in a waterproof bag and keep this with you.
• Gas up the car or arrange transporation in case of evacuation.

[Bronxboy]

Originally Posted by Chris

• Know the storm surge history and elevation of your area, in other words, understand where the water is going to go.
• Know safe routes inland
• Review working condition of emergency equipment, such as flashlights, battery-powered radios, etc.
• Ensure that enough non-perishable food and water supplies are on hand to last for at least 2 weeks.
• Obtain and store materials, such as plywood and plastic, necessary to properly secure your home.
• Keep trees and shrubbery trimmed.
• Review your insurance policy to ensure it provides adequate coverage.
• Gather all important documentation, money etc in a waterproof bag and keep this with you.
• Gas up the car or arrange transporation in case of evacuation.

Keep a positive attitude!!!!!

[maggiemex]

This really IS a NAIL-BITER. Am also supposed to fly from NY on Saturday (maybe at mid or tail end of Hanna), and into Puerto Plata. Wish Ike would make up his mind.

Of course, it is more important that the people of DR are prepared and safe.

Let's keep thoughts positive and fingers crossed.

[BushBaby]

Originally Posted by Bronxboy

Keep a positive attitude!!!!!

Useful information for all newcomers & tourists to the island, POSITIVE ATTITUDES are available at any colmado &/or corner store where locals meet. A quick purchase of a couple of bottles of rum (ANY make) & your positive attitude will remain with you for the period that the hurricane is passing through!! You have willing helpers to carry you through any low lying water too!

Just check that you receive YOUR positive attitude at a sufficiently high ALTITUDE!!! Rum & SALT water do not mix too well!! ~ Grahame.

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by Bronxboy

Keep a positive attitude!!!!!

Absolutely & what better example than the charity golf classic thread in Living Forum?

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

Lambada,
just as an update, because your 'model-map' been from 12:00Zulu time(8AM),
the models including the GDFL been updated 11AM(local) and show also the agressive GDFL model more north on the path. it is the dark blue one on the shot.

Mike

Thank you Mike! I wondered why I was having a problem reconciling this data - silly me failed to see initialisation time. They're still running the same model run on that site, so they have yet to get with the 11am programme.

Originally Posted by Chris

Reconnaisance flights do not give storm direction. They supply data to determine strength of storm and wind fields and other data as well like eyewall size and so on, but not direction and track.

Have to beg to differ ever so slightly Chris. If you're referring to P-3s (Lockheed WP- 3D Orions) I agree but they're now using G-IV's also (Gulfstream IV SPs)
'The G-IV has added a vital new dimension as it maps the steering currents that influence the movement of hurricanes..............G-IV flight data are expected to help numerical guidance computer models improve hurricane landfall and track forecasts by up to 20 percent, and to further refine storm intensity forecasts.'
------
Moderator's note added: This aircraft type is only used late in the cycle once a storm threatens the US. For the DR, this does not apply. For general knowledge, you are correct.
------
NOAA's Hurricane Hunters

For those interested this page is all about NOAA's Hurricane Hunters (different from the Biloxi group).

[elenacan]

I would like to thank Mike, Chris, Lambada, El Tigre, Hillbilly, Planer, Dolores...We are flying from Toronto to PC on Saturday the 6th . I was really worried because our small son 1 year 11 months is flying too. Hanna, Ike, Josephine, all graphs drive me crazy. After your explanations I feel much better now! Thank you for giving me piece of mind! You are doing a great job.

[Al Bundy]

Does anyone have an idea if Puerto Plata will be affected on Saturday? We're flying in around 5pm. I have been tracking Ike, and was pretty happy to see it move further North. I'm still expecting it to have some sort of impact, but just how much?

PS, this is my first post, and after having a look through here the last couple of days, I think it's great to see so many people giving their time to help others out.....................even if it is only a messageboard