Hurricane Ike and Current Tropical Storms .. was .. Hey Chris: They're lining up

[Hillbilly]

Hanna is raining on us now.

Ike is out there at 17/7 N , 40 W and now named, heading West with a wisp of NW

there is an area of disturbance to the SE of us...And another just off the coast of Africa...

Things are gettin' interestin'


HB

[CG-LT]

did not do all the archives but this looks a bit like Aug 1999 -

Bret formed the 18th & reached cat 4 on the 22nd.

Cindy formed the 18th, was a hurricane the 21st, downgraded the 22nd and upgraded to hurricane strength the 24th.

Dennis formed the 23rd and hit hurricane strength the 28th.

Emily formed the 24th, grew to TS force before being sucked up by Cindy on the 27th/28th.

kinda looks the same as now with Gustav, Hanna, Ike and invest 99 lurking way out east...

gotta agree with HB, gettin interestin,

lt

[MikeFisher]

i bet Ike is a hurricane tomorrow evening,
it is growing fast,
til now the strongest with the biggest chances to come on our side of the atlantic as a major hurricane before he's even close to the eastern caribbean, he is reaching higher power much earlier(much more east from us) than all the others did, he will have a looong time to grow, but by actual conditions on his straight west course he will more likely get a northern drift and pass us far north, and in 'his' case i really hope so.
the 99L is the same kind, starting to suck in everything around at the moment it left the african continent, also running straight west, and compared to our side he is located more south than the others, a west course for some days and a slight usual NW drift later could bring that one very close, but til now the same not favorable conditions to do so like Ike, they MUST turn a bit more northernwards 24-48 hrs from now.
those formations over the african continent been on the satellites since a week, that's why i wrote sevral days ago we will get 3-4+ names on the screens at the same time during the next 2-3 weeks.
it is a real line up and no end in sight til end september, but that doesn't mean a thing as long as they don't get a straight western path, and they don't have that.
looking on the just passed month of august,
for myself my 14th august in punta cana,
working on the water, so that grap is vital for myself and my little business,
i have to say that in case of Punta Cana i passed the smoothest and quietest/calmest august in those 14 years. usually we have 1-2 times the Sea conditions fu.. up with rough Sea/strong winds 20-25 mphr that month, this year the friday of Fay been the only day we could not go fishing, on day and the prior night full of rain and strong winds(no stormwinds, just 30-35mphr heavy breeze), and this year started early with a lot of upcoming/bypassing formations.
sure i know that the south got it's huge share of water, but even with that in mind i would say we've been very lucky with the paths and some not so favorable conditions for the storms on their atlantic crossing way over here before they reached the eastern caribbean.
owuld Fay had favorable conditions on it's way west before hitting the east i may still not have a internet connection today to write about the calm august we passed over here.
btw,
how Hanna did finally effect the northcoast, did you guys get something out of it?
it is forecasted to go to the northwest,
but on the other hand it's actual course is still and since many hours a south southwest towards the passage between hispaniola and Cuba, i would assume you get or got some rain there, but don't know.
let's keep the info from all sides of the island coming.
nice eve
Mike

[Chris]

It is active out there. The tropics need a little prozac. Let´s take it in an organized and practical fashion.

Hurricane Hanna is raining on the DR now.
Hurricane Gustav is long gone but still provides a ridge up north.
90L would have me worried for the near future.
99L is too far away to be worried.
Tropical Storm Ike would be my ace in the hole if I was a poker player.

Man, stuff is active in the tropics. This makes for a very complex prediction picture. There is nothing right now that threatens our beloved DR, but this does not mean that something cannot change tomorrow.

Hillbilly, they may be lining up, but gawds truth .. they may not know how to shoot!

[MikeFisher]

totally agrre on that Chris.
we actually have no kind of threat.
in cas eof poker as the bad guy i would count Ike and 99L as a pair of aces,
with the high chance of a "four Aces" with the satellite shots showing the afterwards,
but all much too early to predict,
cards are coming on top one after an other,
and each has to be seen how/where it fits to which 'house'.
in my case from the PC side i say that the east of us is actually absolute not favorable to let a storm even on the upcoming size go straight west, he will get his northern turn tomorrow and after tomorrow.
yes, i see the same east west passage Hanna took along the north coast,
nobody knows by know the real distance,
and there's always the danger given by present conditions that he takes his southwest turn there 100 miles earlier than Hanna, rest a while (like Hanna still is doing, stationery), before taking the actually only way out towards the north east, Florida will stay like usual a busy place. and that would bring the island i the game for a full house of 3 winds and 2 waters on the north.
istill count Ike for a hurricane tomorrow night, much before wednesday noon.
his track til tomorrow noon may make a difference of destin, he has to be watched very carefully.
i like stormy ladies, that guy is not welcome to the party.
Mike

[Lambada]

Originally Posted by MikeFisher

btw, how Hanna did finally effect the northcoast, did you guys get something out of it?
it is forecasted to go to the northwest,
but on the other hand it's actual course is still and since many hours a south southwest towards the passage between hispaniola and Cuba, i would assume you get or got some rain there, but don't know.
let's keep the info from all sides of the island coming. nice eve Mike

I was in Sosua earlier today - overcast & drizzle, rain on the journey back to Puerto Plata this afternoon and it has rained lightly most of the evening. No wind to speak of apart from one noticeable gust earlier when I was at Rocky's (no funnies, there was one sudden very noticeable gust of actual wind ).

Mike in Punta Cana, thought you'd like this link for GFDL tracking for Ike . Have a look at where & how strong for Sunday : Like I said on the charity golf classic thread, bit of a breeze on Sunday..........
Tropical Storm: Tracking Map : Weather Underground

Mike already knows this, but for others please don't take this as definitive. It is one model (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) & there are many others. In fact most of the others have Ike at Cat 2 when it is north of DR, GFDL has it at 4.

[MikeFisher]

Lambada,
GFDL is one of the models i include in my own countings,
and for myself i would be surprised to see Ike just as a Cat 2 over the north.
this storm is the by far strongest which came up this year til now,
the rest depends on the next 2 days to see WHERE he really wanna go.
his size i would say is out of question, it'll be big when finished.
Mike

[Hlywud]

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

[Chris]

So Ike is the one to watch. It is moving relatively quickly.

Tropical Depression Ten (Josephine) may go out to sea.

Hurricane Alley has moved a little north with the latest systems.

[MikeFisher]

yes Chris,
and that's where we will not complain about.
WUD,
on your satellite shot southeast of Josephine you can spot the next formation leaving the african continent right now.
with the actual paths they should just all come up during the next days and run to open atlantic far north of us til their ammunition is done, ha ha.
Hanna is even far from PC a real Pit$,
clouds and rain most time of the day today in PC,
even now 2PM we have just freezing 79F/26C,
not my prefered temps, i hate those winter-conditions,lol.
Mike