What is the logic of models?

[rubio_higuey]

Now, I can understand if a model says a storm will go north...or west... or northwest...or south...or whatever simple.

Now I don;t understand why some models show the storm will go east and then suddenly turn north ... like BAMD or BAMM here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png

or west, then northwest, then southwest.... like TVCC or TCCN here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark10latest.png


so... what is the logic in these crazy paths? How do they get to "draw" them" ... again I can understand if someone thins it goes west, someone things it goes north, etc... but doing a zig-zag or sudden turns... again... WHAT is the logic?

[mike l]

Originally Posted by rubio_higuey

Now, I can understand if a model says a storm will go north...or west... or northwest...or south...or whatever simple.

Now I don;t understand why some models show the storm will go east and then suddenly turn north ... like BAMD or BAMM here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark9latest.png

or west, then northwest, then southwest.... like TVCC or TCCN here http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark10latest.png


so... what is the logic in these crazy paths? How do they get to "draw" them" ... again I can understand if someone thins it goes west, someone things it goes north, etc... but doing a zig-zag or sudden turns... again... WHAT is the logic?

Without a long winded conclusion......you just can't trust the weather man, now can you !

[CFA123]

here ya go...

Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models. Now, put that in your pipe and smoke it.

If I'm not mistaken, certain models have better track records in certain areas of the Atlantic and/or with storms of different strengths.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by rubio_higuey

so... what is the logic in these crazy paths? How do they get to "draw" them" ... again I can understand if someone thins it goes west, someone things it goes north, etc... but doing a zig-zag or sudden turns... again... WHAT is the logic?

Simply modelling the various weather systems. Plug in the actual data from the ocean buoys, satellite metrics, real observations, historical behavior patterns and other weather systems and hey presto, you get a prediction of how a specific weather system will behave. Some years ago I did a writeup on models here on the weather forum and you may find your answers in that. It makes interesting reading especially if one realises that few models were built solely for weather.